An analysis of tropical variability during the 2002-2003 cold season

Interannual, intraseasonal, and subseasonal variability of moist deep convection in the tropics is often strongly associated with midlatitude synoptic flow anomalies. This relationship is greatest in the Northern Hemisphere during the boreal winter due to enhanced baroclinicity. This case study explores the aforementioned relationship during the Northern Hemisphere cold season of 2002-2003. During this time a moderate El Niño, strong MJO and convectively coupled Kelvin waves were the main contributors to the overall variability in the equatorial Pacific basin. The relationships between each of these modes with the midlatitude flow are examined both independently and combined.