Session 11C Tropical Cyclone Modeling: Ensemble Systems

Wednesday, 12 May 2010: 3:30 PM-5:15 PM
Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)
Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter, Devon

3:30 PM
Impact of formulation and resolution on ensemble forecast performance in the tropics
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. McLay, J. S. Goerss, M. K. Flatau, J. A. Ridout, and E. Serra
3:45 PM
Impact of ensemble composition, formulation, and resolution on tropical cyclone track forecast performance
James S. Goerss, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds, J. G. McLay, and E. Serra
4:15 PM
Real-time mesoscale ensemble data assimilation for Atlantic TC
Ryan Torn, SUNY / University at Albany, Albany, NY; and S. Cavallo, C. A. Davis, and C. Snyder
4:30 PM
Assimilation of tropical cyclone track and structure based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)
Guo-Yuan Lien, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and C. C. Wu, J. H. Chen, and F. Zhang

4:45 PM
Dynamics and structure of three-dimensional error covariance of a mature tropical cyclone
Jonathan Poterjoy, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang
5:00 PM
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