Session 11C Tropical Cyclone Modeling: Ensemble Systems

Wednesday, 12 May 2010: 3:30 PM-5:15 PM
Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)
Host: 29th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair:
Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter, Devon

Papers:
3:30 PM
11C.1
Impact of formulation and resolution on ensemble forecast performance in the tropics
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. McLay, J. S. Goerss, M. K. Flatau, J. A. Ridout, and E. Serra
Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM
11C.2
Impact of ensemble composition, formulation, and resolution on tropical cyclone track forecast performance
James S. Goerss, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds, J. G. McLay, and E. Serra
Recorded Presentation

4:00 PM
11C.3
Using TIGGE data to diagnose initial perturbations and their growth for tropical cyclone ensemble forecasts
Munehiko Yamaguchi, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL
Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (773.8 kB)

4:15 PM
11C.4
Real-time mesoscale ensemble data assimilation for Atlantic TC
Ryan Torn, SUNY / University at Albany, Albany, NY; and S. Cavallo, C. A. Davis, and C. Snyder
Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM
11C.5
Assimilation of tropical cyclone track and structure based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF)
Guo-Yuan Lien, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and C. C. Wu, J. H. Chen, and F. Zhang

4:45 PM
11C.6
Dynamics and structure of three-dimensional error covariance of a mature tropical cyclone
Jonathan Poterjoy, Penn State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang
Recorded Presentation

Presentation PDF (940.2 kB)

5:00 PM
11C.7
Vortex structures from an ensemble-based data assimilation and hurricane prediction system during the 2009 Atlantic tropical cyclone season
Steven M. Cavallo, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Torn, C. Snyder, C. Davis, W. Wang, and J. Done
Recorded Presentation

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