Impact of climate variability and change on Hurricane extremes

Society has generally adapted to common weather events, so that the major impacts tend to arise from high-intensity or relatively rare events, such as category 4 and 5 hurricanes. This impact vulnerability is amplified by our predilection for development in existing high risk regions, such as coastal zones visited by hurricanes. Current models used in predicting climate variability and change cannot resolve the more intense hurricanes. However, those weather extremes that they can predict, such as heavy rain, droughts, and heat waves, are all assessed as increasing at a greater rate than the general population.

In this presentation, I will first apply extreme value theory to showing why enhanced changes in weather extremes are to be expected. Application to both observed and predicted hurricane PDFs will then be used to indicate the likely changes to the more extreme hurricanes that may arise from both decadal climate variability and climate change.