Sensitivity of a parametric hurricane model to different wind profiles

A crucial component in estimating hurricane losses in a parametric model is determining the wind distribution associated with a specific storm. AIR Worldwide, a leader in hurricane risk modeling, has evaluated the response of its US Hurricane impact model to a variety of established radial wind profiles. A number of formulations of these radial profiles in tropical cyclones have been developed over time, each of which vary in their approach, storm parameters considered, and data and analytics employed.

This discussion evaluates and compares some of these formulations: NWS-23 (1979), Holland (1980), and Willoughby (2006). More specifically, the sensitivity of the wind field formulation to the NWS-23 and Willoughby approaches is evaluated for several historical storms. Wind footprints are computed and compared for each storm focusing on their sensitivity to the radial assumption. The areal extent of the footprints as well as the mean location and coverage of the maximum winds are both important in estimating damages associated with each hurricane landfall. Such loss estimates are valuable to emergency managers and other stakeholders who need to plan for post-disaster recovery and/or strategize against financial losses.