5C.7 Evaluation of GFDL wind field structure during rapid intensification TC cases using H*Wind

Tuesday, 11 May 2010: 9:30 AM
Arizona Ballroom 10-12 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)
Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and B. Annane and R. F. Rogers

An accurate representation of a tropical cyclone's (TC) surface wind field is required in order to predict and understand the structural and environmental damage induced by storm surge, flooding and wind damage. The damage caused by TCs is related to the surface wind structure of the storm. Important attributes of the surface wind structure are not limited to the peak surface wind, but also include the radial and azimuthal distribution of winds and how they evolve over time. TCs that undergo rapid intensification are of particularly great interest since rapid increases in intensity are accompanied by rapid changes in the surface wind structure.

Operational intensity forecast models still struggle in predicting an adequate TC wind field. An evaluation of the model wind field evolution during RI cases will be examined. We will compare the model wind field with the Hurricane Research Division's Hurricane Wind Analysis System (H*Wind) to evaluate the performance of the model in predicting peak winds and important wind thresholds, such as 34- and 64-kt wind radii, and integrated kinetic energy.

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