Exploring Influence of Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea Cyclones on Warm Season Rainfall over Central US

The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea (GM-CS) basin play a major role as a moisture source for summer season rainfall over the central United States Great Plains. Seasonal and inter-annual variabilities of the central US rainfall are linked to moisture transport from the GM-CS. The GM-CS is also a key region where tropical cyclones from and/or intensify and bring heavy rainfall. The present study is guided by a hypothesis that rainfall associated with individual tropical cyclones over GM-CS basin impact seasonal water budget of the basin and atmospheric moisture transport from the GM-CS region, subsequently influencing rainfall over the central US. Quantitative analysis of diurnal to seasonal water budget of the GM-CS basin is conducted by using rainfall measurements from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite product 3B42, and precipitable water content and cloud water content measurements from Aqua satellite (AMSR and AIRS products), together with North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) for years 2002 to present. For these years, tropical cyclone data are obtained from Atlantic Hurricane Database (HURDAT) from NOAA-AOML. The presentation will focus on explaining role of tropical storms and hurricanes in modulating water cycle of GM-CS basin and assess potential impact that inter-annual variability of tropical cyclone frequency may have on Gulf-Caribbean water budget and on central US rainfall.