The Tropical Cyclone Modeling Testbed (TCMT) and its role in the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)

The Tropical Cyclone Modeling Testbed (TCMT) is a new entity in the Joint Numerical Testbed (JNT) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), which has been established to provide testing and evaluation of tropical cyclone models. The TCMT works closely with the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) but with broader objectives that may include international collaborations and testing of a variety of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. For example, while the DTC focuses primarily on NWP models in the transition from research to operations, TCMT evaluations may include models that are either in earlier stages of development or may not be intended for operational application in the U.S. For the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), the TCMT will help design model evaluation experiments and will provide general testing and evaluation of the various forecast models included in the HFIP annual forecasting demonstrations and retrospective experiments. Utilizing staff expertise in forecast verification, statistics, and atmospheric sciences, the TCMT is developing statistical approaches that are appropriate for evaluating a variety of tropical cyclone forecast attributes. These methods include new diagnostic tools to aid, for example, in the evaluation of precipitation and tropical cyclone structure forecasts. The TCMT will also support HFIP through other activities such as provision of a data service. The data service will include model forecast and some observational datasets as well as links and pointers to additional observational datasets. In summary, the TCMT is a resource for tropical cyclone model testing and evaluation that will support many aspects of HFIP. Examples of these activities and the approaches taken by the TCMT will be described in this presentation.