Diagnosis and Verification of Real-Time COAMPS-TC Forecasts

A dynamic web site (http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc) has been designed and established to support real-time Tropical Cyclone (TC) forecasts using Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System – Tropical Cyclone (COAMPS®-TC) over different regions (Atlantic, eastern, central and western Pacific). This system provides real-time support for Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) Demonstration and Impact of Typhoon On the Pacific (ITOP) projects. A unique and convenient TC sorting method is designed based on TC storm lists, dates, or a monthly calendar with all available storm forecasts. Easy navigating features have been built for animation, frame by frame at different date-time groups, and at different scales (from regional scale, mesoscale, to vortex scale). Plots for both forecast and diagnostic fields (from surface to different pressure levels, track and intensity forecasts) are created to be compared with analysis and observations. This online tool provides a powerful platform for TC track, intensity, and structure verification. For example, satellite images and H*Wind analysis are used to verify the initial vortex structure and model forecasts. Total precipitable water and radar reflectivity retrieved from model outputs at the different scales can be compared with observations directly. The web site also contains real-time track and intensity forecasts from other operational centers to facilitate multi-model comparisons with the official track forecast and verification with the best track. More detailed diagnostics and verification from selected Atlantic and Pacific TCs will be presented at the conference.