A New Paradigm Shift from Weather to Quantitative Impact Forecasts

Recent advancements in science and technology, especially in numerical models and computing power, made it possible for a new paradigm shift from weather to explicit impact forecasts in hurricanes. This study will provide a review of recent progress in high-resolution coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling, storm surge modeling, and sectoral impact modeling of hurricanes at landfall. Explicit impact forecasts require a new strategy for model development, evaluation and verification. High-resolution coupled model ensemble forecasts of rainfall, surface wind, waves, and storm surge can provide quantitative probabilistic forecasts and will continue to improve in the coming decade. However, verification of probabilistic forecasts has not been adequately addressed, in part because of the lack of observations for rare events like hurricanes. One of the objectives is to explore new methodologies to evaluate and verify probabilistic impact forecasts using both in situ and remote sensing data. In addition, working with industry partners and socioeconomic researchers, we will study the human behavioral basis around which optimal forecast products can be designed and upon which future risk assessment systems can be built.