Evaluation of experimental model forecasts from HFIP 2009 Demonstration

In 2007, NOAA established the 10-year Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) to address the need for improvement in one to five day tropical cyclone forecasts, with a focus on rapid intensity change. One component of HFIP is an annual Demonstration Project (Demo) for which real-time forecasts are generated using experimental numerical weather prediction model configurations that attempt to provide improvements in tropical cyclone guidance forecasts. Nine modeling groups participated in the first HFIP Demo in 2009. The models used by these groups included three global models and five regional numerical models, as well as a variety of initialization and ensemble generation approaches. This presentation will discuss the results of an evaluation of the Demo forecasts obtained using traditional verification metrics as well as through application of new verification tools initially used in the HFIP High Resolution Hurricane Forecast Test. This preliminary verification effort and follow-on work will be used to guide future HFIP activities and contribute to the continuing HFIP effort to improve tropical cyclone intensity and track forecasts by providing feedback to the forecasting and modeling groups.