Seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone hindcasting/forecasting using two sea surface temperature datasets

Seasonal Atlantic basin tropical cyclone hindcasts are conducted from 1986-2005 using the Florida State University/Center for Ocean Atmospheric Prediction Studies atmospheric global spectral model and two sea surface temperature products. The two sea surface temperature products are: the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrations Climate Forecast System Model's 1 June forecast and the weekly observed sea surface temperatures. The hindcasts extend through the 180-day Atlantic hurricane season. A four member ensemble is generated for each year using time-lagged atmospheric initial conditions centered on 1 June of the respective year. The interannual variability of total number of Atlantic storms (tropical storms plus hurricanes), hurricanes and accumulated cyclone energy using both sea surface temperature products yield high correlations which are statistically significant, although using the observed sea surface temperature product yields higher correlations. A four member real-time forecast was made for the 2009 hurricane season. The 182-day forecast of daily sea surface temperatures determined by the CFS coupled model were used as lower boundary conditions. The model predicted an average of nine named storms, four hurricanes and an ACE value of 65. The results indicates that the Climate Forecast System Model's sea surface temperatures are suitable for use in real-time seasonal tropical cyclone forecasting in the Atlantic basin in a two-tiered approach.