Operational forecast on Asian Monsoon region cyclone genesis and tracks

Extended predictability in the 10-15 day range has been found in operational short-term forecast of large-scale flooding of the Ganges and Brahmaputra River. These forecasts were based on a statistical rendering of ECMWF EPS system and now operational in Bangladesh. The same system has been used to consider typhoon and tropical cyclone forecasting in the Western North pacific and the North Indian Ocean.

Examples are given of genesis forecasts in which cyclone genesis was forecast 5-10 days in advance. Particular attention is paid to Gonu, Sidr and Nargis in the North Indian Ocean and the influence of model resolution. Extended seasonal range hurricane forecasts are explored using the ECMWF system-3 couple ocean-atmosphere climate prediction model. Experimental results of these extended forecasts are given for the West Pacific and North Indian Ocean.