Session 3A.1 Verification of 12 years of NOAA Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts

Monday, 10 May 2010: 1:15 PM
Arizona Ballroom 6 (JW MArriott Starr Pass Resort)
Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and R. J. Pasch and G. D. Bell

Presentation PDF (105.1 kB)

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center, in coordination with the Hurricane Research Division and the National Hurricane Center, has been making Atlantic seasonal hurricane forecasts since 1998. Although the methodology and tools used to make these forecasts have continued to evolve, it is useful to determine how much skill these forecasts have displayed during the 12-year period. This study will present a verification of the seasonal hurricane forecasts, some of the forecast tools and a comparison with various skill and climatology-based metrics.
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