The CIMSS SATellite CONsensus (SATCON) tropical cyclone intensity algorithm

The CIMSS SATellite CONsensus (SATCON) algorithm objectively combines Tropical Cyclone (TC) intensity estimates from IR and microwave-based intensity estimation methods to produce a consensus estimate which is more skillful than the individual members. Current members of SATCON include the CIMSS ADT along with the CIMSS and CIRA AMSU algorithms. SATCON provides the TC forecaster the ability to quickly reconcile differences in objective intensity methods thus decreasing the amount of time spent on the analysis intensity. Real-time SATCON estimates were provided to NHC during the 2008 hurricane season. An evaluation of the algorithms performance compared to ground truth from Atlantic aircraft reconnaissance will be presented.

In addition a THORPEX aircraft-focused field campaign conducted in the Western Pacific in 2008 (TCS-08) provided the opportunity to evaluate the performance of SATCON and it's members outside of the Atlantic basin. Both C-130 and P-3 reconnaissance aircraft were flown into storms in the Western Pacific as a part of the TCS-08 project. A double blind Dvorak experiment was also performed where Dvorak estimates of TC intensity from experienced Dvorak experts were produced without knowledge of the aircraft data. This provided a unique chance to directly compare the objective estimates with the subjective Dvorak estimates. Results of this experiment will also be presented.