Advances in Operational Extreme Rainfall Prediction

In the wake of recent devastating extreme rainfall and ensuing flooding events, there is a renewed urgency to improve extreme rainfall prediction. Although the skill of extreme rainfall predictions remains poor, advances in modeling, products, and communication are being brought to bear on the challenge. For example, operational convection-allowing ensembles are becoming a reality, offering the first opportunity for skillful probabilistic guidance for heavy rainfall. Advances in physics have reduced a traditional high bias among convection-allowing models for heavy rainfall events. New and improved products, such as the Excessive Rainfall Outlook, Extreme Precipitation Monitor, and probabilistic rainfall are aiding the real-time communication of extreme rainfall threats. Further, the community is engaging together at the annual Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall experiment, hosted by the Hydrometeorological Testbed, to put new advances to the test. This talk will explore these ongoing science and service efforts, including operational application to recent extreme rainfall events.