29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Registration Opens

Location: 2nd Floor Lobby (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Registration Open

Location: 2nd Floor Lobby (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Session 1A

Tropical Meteorology

Location: Colorado A (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Clark Evans, UW-Milwaukee; James I. Belanger, The Weather Company

8:15 AM

Welcoming Remarks

Rebecca Adams-Selin, NOAA

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

1A.1

The Performance of the NCEP and ECMWF Operational Models for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts during 2015-2016

George N. Kiladis, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias, M. Gehne, P. Bechtold, and T. Haiden

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

1A.2

Diagnosing Sources of Operational Forecast Model Errors in Tropical-Extratropical Interactions

Juliana Dias, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and G. N. Kiladis and M. Gehne

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

1A.3

The Role of ECMWF Deep and Shallow Convection Schemes and ECMWF Initial Conditions on Equatorial Waves in the NOAA/NCEP Forecasting Systems.

Lisa K Bengtsson, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias, M. Gehne, P. Bechtold, J. W. Bao, P. Pegion, and S. A. Michelson

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1A.4

An Investigation of Large Track Errors of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Nicholas Leonardo, Stony Brook University - SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1A.5

High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Patricia (2015)–Rapid Intensification

Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. R. Ryglicki, H. Jin, J. D. Doyle, and J. R. Moskaitis

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1A.6

Development of a Post Processes Method for High-Resolution Surface Winds and Pressure for Hindcasts of Hurricane Surge

Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. Doyle

Session 1B

Model Center Overviews I

Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Christopher D. McCray, McGill University; Bruce Telfeyan, AMS

8:15 AM

Welcoming Remarks

Christopher McCray, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

1B.1

Planned Upgrades to the NCEP Operational Modeling Suite

William Lapenta, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

1B.2

Update on the US Navy's Earth System Prediction Capability Effort

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. P. Barton, C. Bishop, D. P. Eleuterio, M. Flatau, S. Frolov, P. Hogan, G. Jacobs, M. A. Janiga, J. G. McLay, E. J. Metzger, J. G. Richman, J. Ridout, E. Rogers, C. D. Rowley, B. Ruston, and T. R. Whitcomb

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1B.3

Overview of the Navy's Coupled Mesoscale Modeling System and Future Plans

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen, C. M. Amerault, D. D. Flagg, S. Gabersek, T. Haack, R. M. Hodur, T. R. Holt, X. Hong, Q. Jiang, H. Jin, Y. Jin, W. A. Komaromi, J. R. Moskaitis, J. Nachamkin, P. A. Reinecke, D. R. Ryglicki, J. Schmidt, D. P. Tyndall, S. Wang, and L. Xu

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1B.4

US Air Force Modeling Capability at the 557th Weather Wing

Robert Tournay, 16th Weather Squadron, Offutt AFB, NE

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1B.5

Numerical Weather Prediction at the Met Office: Recent Progress and Future Direction

Kirsty Hanley, Met Office, Reading, United Kingdom; and B. Macpherson, W. Tennant, and D. Walters

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Colorado Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Session 2A

High-Impact Local Weather Events

Location: Colorado A (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University; James Nelson, NOAA

10:30 AM

2A.1

Meteorologist Expertise, Client Relationships, and Data Synthesis: How AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions Provides Lifesaving Warnings to Clients (Award for Exceptional Specific Prediction)

Rebecca DePodwin, AccuWeather, Inc., State College, PA

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2A.2

Observations of Extreme Short-Term Precipitation Associated with Supercells and Mesovortices

Erik R. Nielsen, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

2A.3

Applications of Warn-on-Forecast for Flash-Flood Producing Extreme Convective Rainfall Events

Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/OU/NSSL, Norman, OK; and P. L. Heinselman, T. A. Jones, P. S. Skinner, D. C. Dowell, and X. Wang

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2A.4

The Northern California Fires of October 2017: A Terrain-Induced Downslope Windstorm Well Predicted by Mesoscale Models

Clifford F. Mass, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. Ovens

Recorded Presentation

Session 2B

Local Application of Regional Models and Regional Climate Downscaling

Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA; Evan Kuchera, USAF 16th Weather Squadron

10:30 AM

2B.1

Rapid Update Convective Scale NWP Systems for Australia

Peter Steinle, BoM, Docklands, Australia; and X. Sun, S. J. Rennie, M. Krysta, and S. Cooper

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

2B.2

Improving the CASA Prediction System over Dallas Fort Worth (DFW) Urban Network By Blending Radar-Based Nowcasting and High-Resolution Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Chandrasekar Radhakrishnan, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. V. Chandra

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2B.3

Cloud-Based WRF Downscaling Simulations at Scale Using Community Reanalysis and Climate Datasets

Luke Madaus, Jupiter, Boulder, CO; and J. Hacker and J. Exby

Recorded Presentation

2B.4

Comparison of Two Dynamical Downscaling Approaches on the Future Changes in North Atlantic Extratropical Cyclones

11:30 AM

2B.5

Predictability of Snow Multi-Bands in the Cyclone Comma Head Using a 40-Member WRF Ensemble

Ryan Connelly, Stony Brook University - SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session 3A

Winter Weather I: Banded Snow and Icing

Location: Colorado A (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: John Gyakum, McGill University; Lisa K Bengtsson, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado

1:30 PM

3A.1

Investigation of Hydrometeor Lofting During Banded Snowfall Events

Gary M. Lackmann, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

3A.2

Verification of High-Resolution Banded Snowfall Forecasts

Jacob T. Radford, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and G. Lackmann and M. A. Baxter

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

3A.3

Long-Duration Freezing Rain Events over North America: Regional Climatology and Maintenance Mechanisms

Christopher D. McCray, McGill University, Montréal, QC, Canada; and J. R. Gyakum and E. H. Atallah

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3A.4

Freezing Rain: an Analysis of Rare Events Associated with Northwesterly Winds at Montreal, Quebec (CYUL) and Overall Impacts of Freezing Precipitation on the Aviation Industry

Sophie Splawinski, EC, Montreal, QC, Canada

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3A.5

A Revised Bourgouin Precipitation-Type Algorithm

Eric Lenning, NOAA/NWS Chicago WFO, Romeoville, IL; and K. Birk

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3A.6

Vertical Temperature and Moisture Characteristics of Drizzle and Freezing Drizzle Environments

Dan A. Baumgardt, NWS, La Crosse, WI; and A. Just and T. Rieck

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

3A.7

The Ability of the WRF Model to Predict Aircraft and Ground Icing Conditions

Gregory Thompson, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Politovich and R. M. Rasmussen

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3A.8

The 28 January 2014 “Snowmageddon” in the Southeastern U.S.

Timothy A. Coleman, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and J. P. Dice

Recorded Presentation

Session 3B

Updates on Global and Mesoscale Models

Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Georg A. Grell, ESRL; Rebecca Adams-Selin, NOAA

1:30 PM

3B.1

Ongoing Upgrades to NOAA's Real Time Mesoscale Analysis System

Jacob R. Carley, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. Pondeca, S. Levine, R. Yang, Y. Lin, S. Flampouris, J. Whiting, S. Melchior, A. M. Gibbs, R. J. Purser, B. T. Blake, G. Manikin, B. Yang, E. Colón, X. Zhang, M. T. Morris, M. Pyle, E. Rogers, and J. C. Derber

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

3B.2

NOAA's Next-Generation, Modern-Era Global Reanalysis and Reforecast

Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Whitaker and V. Tallapragada

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

3B.3

Assimilation of Polar Orbiter and Geostationary Satellite Data in the Rap and HRRR Models: Recent Upgrades and Ongoing Work with New Observation Sets.

Haidao Lin, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, A. Back, M. Hu, J. M. Brown, and C. R. Alexander

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3B.4

A New Operational Global Ensemble from the United States Air Force

Evan Kuchera, USAF 16th Weather Squadron, Offutt Air Force Base, NE

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3B.5

Overview of the Navy's Next-Generation NEPTUNE Modeling System

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Reinecke, K. C. Viner, D. D. Flagg, S. Gabersek, M. Martini, J. Michalakes, D. R. Ryglicki, and F. X. Giraldo

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3B.6

MPAS (Model for Prediction Across Scales): An Overview of Forecast Evaluation and Improvements

Brett A. Wilt, The Weather Company, Andover, MA; and J. P. Cipriani

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

3B.7

MPAS for Operational Turbulence Forecasts and Other Commercial Applications

John Wong, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, Andover, MA; and T. Hutchinson, J. K. Williams, and C. Meyer

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3B.8

Insights into Atmospheric Predictability Through Global Convection-Permitting Model Simulations

Falko Judt, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Colorado Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Session 4A

Winter Weather II: Probabilistic Products and High-Impact Events

Location: Colorado A (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Eyad Atallah, McGill University; Alicia M. Bentley, SUNY

4:00 PM

4A.1

A Vision for Probabilistic Winter Weather Services

David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, College Park, MD; and D. Soroka and G. W. Carbin

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

4A.2

The Testing of Deterministic and Probabilistic Precipitation Type Algorithms During the 2017-2018 HMT-WPC Winter Weather Experiment

Sarah Perfater, Cherokee Nation Business, Silver Spring, MD; and B. Albright, M. J. Bodner, J. Kastman, and M. Klein

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

4A.3

A Statistical and Approach to Improve Predictability of Cold Season Precipitation Type and Amount for the HRRR-TLE

Timothy Kirk Thielke, Univeristy of Wisconsin Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and P. Roebber

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4A.4

Applying Forecast Track Diagnostics in High-Impact Northeast Winter Storms: Climatology and Case Analysis

Tomer Burg, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. L. Lang, K. L. Corbosiero, and R. D. Torn

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

4A.5

The “Pi-Day” Coastal Storm of 14 March 2017

Lance F. Bosart, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. M. Bentley, T. Burg, and A. C. Winters

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

4A.6

Systematic Biases in NCEP Model Guidance for 2017-2018 East Coast Winter Storms

Logan C. Dawson, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and T. A. Dorian and G. S. Manikin

Recorded Presentation

Session 4B

New or Improved Parameterizations I

Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Jared A. Lee, NCAR; Greg Thompson, NCAR

4:00 PM

4B.1

A Mesoscale Physics Suite to Reduce PBL Errors Including Cloud-Radiation Errors from Day 1 HRRR to Week 4 Subseasonal-Global Prediction

Stan Benjamin, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and G. Grell, J. Olson, T. Smirnova, and C. Alexander

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

4B.2

Simulating Vortex-SE Weather Events with a Scale-Adaptive PBL Scheme in the HRRR Model at Varying Resolutions

Jason M. English, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and D. D. Turner, J. B. Olson, and J. S. Kenyon

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

4B.3

Unifying Vertical Turbulent Mixing and Horizontal Diffusion into a Three Dimensional Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization

Pedro A. Jimenez, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. Kosovic and A. Martilli

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4B.4

Improving Forecasts of Low-Level Winds Induced by Thermal Troughs in the Columbia River Basin

Joseph B. Olson, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. Kenyon, J. M. Brown, M. Toy, K. Lantz, R. M. Banta, L. Bianco, Y. Pichugina, J. Sharp, M. T. Stoelinga, C. Long, M. B. Smith, R. Pierce, K. Holub, and M. Marquis

Recorded Presentation

4B.5

Comparisons of Air-Sea Flux Parameterizations on the Intensity Prediction of GRAPES-GFS

5:15 PM

4B.6

Gravity Wave Physics and Dynamics in the FV3-based Atmosphere Models Extended into the Mesosphere

Valery A. Yudin, Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO; and R. A. Akmaev, J. C. Alpert, T. J. Fuller-Rowell, and S. I. Karol

Recorded Presentation

Ice Breaker Reception

Location: Aspen Ballroom (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Registration Open

Location: 2nd Floor Lobby (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Session 5A

Dynamics of Mid- and High-Latitude Weather

Location: Colorado A (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Youngsun Jung, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma; Charles M. Kuster, CIMMS/NOAA NSSL

8:00 AM

5A.1

Analysis and Prediction of Large-Scale Cold-Season Atmospheric Circulation Regimes Associated with Extreme Weather over North America

John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and E. H. Atallah, J. Hart, and Y. Low

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

5A.2

A Simple Definition of Flow Regimes and its Relationship to High Impact Weather Events

Eyad H. Atallah, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada; and S. M. Milrad, D. J. Gyakum, Y. Low, and J. Hart

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

5A.3

Extratropical Cyclones leading to Extreme Weather Events over Central and Eastern North America

Alicia M. Bentley, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. F. Bosart

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

5A.4

An Analysis of Large-Scale Regime Transition on the Spatiotemporal Distribution of Cyclone Clustering

Eric M Bunker, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

5A.5

Linkages Between Tropopause Polar Vortices and the Great Arctic Cyclone of August 2012

Daniel Keyser, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. A. Biernat and L. F. Bosart

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

5A.6

A Multiscale Analysis and Predictability Study of a Polar Low Linked to a Tropopause Polar Vortex

Kevin A. Biernat, SUNY, Albany, NY; and D. Keyser and L. F. Bosart

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

5A.7

A Diagnosis of the Role of Anticyclonic Rossby Wave Breaking in Increasing Zonal Available Potential Energy

Kevin Bowley, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA; and J. R. Gyakum and E. H. Atallah

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

5A.8

The Impact of Warm Conveyor Belt Forecast Errors on Variability in the Downstream Waveguide within MPAS Forecasts

Jeremy D. Berman, SUNY, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

Recorded Presentation

Session 5B

NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System

Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: John S. Kain, NOAA; Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University

8:00 AM

5B.1

Building NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System

Ivanka Stajner, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Toepfer, V. Tallapragada, S. Warren, H. L. Tolman, N. P. Kurkowski, and T. L. Schneider

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

5B.2

Operational Global Modeling Advancements at NCEP: Beta Version of FV3-GFS Parallel Implementation Details and Performance Evaluation

Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

5B.3

Evaluation of Retrospective and Real-time NGGPS FV3GFS Experiments for Q3FY18 Beta Implementation

Fanglin Yang, NOAA, College Park, MD; and V. Tallapragada

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

5B.4

Evaluation of FV3 Convection-Allowing Forecasts over CONUS using Different Physics Schemes during the 2018 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment

Chunxi Zhang, CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, T. A. Supinie, N. Snook, K. A. Brewster, F. Kong, K. Thomas, L. Harris, and S. J. Lin

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

5B.5

Plans to Evolve HWRF to a Regional FV3-based Hurricane Model within NOAA’s Unified Forecasting Strategy

Nicole P. Kurkowski, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and E. Rappaport, F. Toepfer, F. Marks, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, V. Tallapragada, M. DeMaria, I. Stajner, and T. L. Schneider

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

5B.6

Facilitating Development of Physical Parameterizations for NOAA's Unified Forecast System

Ligia Bernardet, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, NOAA/GSD and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Firl, J. S. Kain, V. Tallapragada, F. Toepfer, and B. Gross

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

5B.7

Impact of Stochastic Physics in FV3-GEFS—Preliminary Results

Walter Kolczynski Jr., NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC via IMSG, College Park, MD; and B. Fu, P. Pegion, Y. Zhu, and D. Hou

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Colorado Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Session 6A

Forecast Communication and Societal Impacts

Location: Colorado A (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Jason Levit, EMC; James Nelson, Metropolitan State University

10:30 AM

6A.1

Understanding Weather Forecast Communication, Interpretation, and Use through Analysis of Twitter Data

Rebecca E. Morss, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. L. Demuth, M. Bica, L. Palen, J. Anderson, K. M. Anderson, J. Henderson, M. Kogan, H. Lazrus, K. Stowe, and O. Wilhelmi

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

6A.2

NWS Forecasters' Interpretations, Uses, and Needs Regarding High-Resolution Ensemble Guidance

Julie L. Demuth, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. E. Morss, I. Jankov, C. R. Alexander, T. Alcott, D. Nietfeld, and T. Jensen

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6A.3

Major Risks, Uncertain Outcomes: Making Ensemble Forecasts Work for Multiple Audiences

Kathryn Semmens, Nurture Nature Center, Easton, PA; and B. E. Montz, R. H. Carr, K. Maxfield, S. Connolly, P. R. Ahnert, R. Shedd, and J. C. Elliott

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6A.4

Climate Change and Potential Impacts on Tourism. Evidence from the Zimbabwean Side of the Victoria Falls World Heritage Site

Kaitano Dube, University of South Africa, Pretoria, South Africa; and G. Nhamo

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.7 MB)

11:30 AM

6A.5

Why Good Weather Isn’t Good Enough: The O2D (Operations to Decisions) Divide

Peter P. Neilley, The Weather Company/IBM, Andover, MA; and J. K. Williams

Recorded Presentation

Session 6B

Model Center Overviews II

Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Bruce Telfeyan, AMS; Christopher D. McCray, McGill University

10:30 AM

6B.1

ECMWF: Progress and Plans (Invited Presentation)

Andrew Brown, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6B.2

NWP Prediction at ESRL/GSD: Overview of Global Modeling Development Activities

Georg A. Grell, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and L. Bernardet, S. Sun, R. Ahmadov, J. M. Brown, C. DeLuca, and M. W. Govett

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6B.3

Regional NWP Development at NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory

David C. Dowell, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

6B.4

Numerical Weather Prediction at IBM/The Weather Company: Overview of a Global Rapidly-Updating Forecast System

Todd Hutchinson, The Weather Company, Andover, MA; and B. A. Wilt, J. Wong, and J. P. Cipriani

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

NOAA Modeling Development Forum

Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Moderator: Hendrik L. Tolman, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Session 7A

Testbed and Proving Ground Activities

Location: Colorado A (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Sarah Perfater, Cherokee Nation Business; Adam Clark, NOAA/NSSL

1:30 PM

7A.1

An Overview of the 2017 Experimental Warning Program at the Hazardous Weather Testbed

Tiffany C. Meyer, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. Berry, M. A. Bowlan, K. M. Calhoun, J. Correia Jr., G. S. Garfield, A. Gerard, T. L. Hansen, C. D. Karstens, K. E. Klockow-McClain, D. M. Kingfield, D. LaDue, J. G. LaDue, C. Ling, K. L. Manross, H. Obermeier, and G. J. Stumpf

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

7A.2

Verification of CAPS Storm-scale Ensemble Forecasts from the 2017 HMT FFaIR Experiment and a Patchwise Localized Probability Matched Mean for Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts

Nathan Snook, CAPS, Norman, OK; and F. Kong, M. Xue, K. Brewster, K. W. Thomas, and T. A. Supinie

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7A.3

Development of GSI-Based EnKF and Hybrid EnVar Data Assimilation Capabilities for Continental-Scale 3-km Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasting and Testing via NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments

Youngsun Jung, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, G. Zhao, J. Luo, T. A. Supinie, C. Liu, R. Kong, F. Kong, and K. Thomas

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7A.4

Development and Research of GSI based EnVar with Direct Radar Data Assimilation for the US NWS Operational Regional Convection Allowing Modeling Systems to Improve Convection-Allowing Hazardous Weather Forecast and Results during the HWT Spring Expeirments

Yongming Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang, J. R. Carley, and D. C. Dowell

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7A.5

Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Proving Ground Initiatives

Jeffrey Weinrich, JPSS, Washington, DC

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7A.6

The Weather Prediction Center Day 8-10 Forecast Experiment: Experiment Overview

William S. Lamberson, IMSG, College Park, MD; and M. J. Bodner, S. Ganetis, J. Kastman, and J. A. Nelson Jr.

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

7A.7

The Weather Prediction Center Day 8-10 Forecast Experiment: Assessment and Verification

Sara A. Ganetis, NOAA/NWS and IMSG, College Park, MD; and M. J. Bodner, W. S. Lamberson, J. Kastman, and J. A. Nelson Jr.

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

7A.8

An Update on CIRA's NWS Proving Ground Activities: Advancing New Satellite Products Into Operations

Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and D. Bikos, B. H. Connell, H. Gosden, S. Miller, J. Torres, R. Brummer, D. T. Lindsey, D. W. Hillger, D. A. Molenar, and C. J. Seaman

Recorded Presentation

Session 7B

Data Assimilation Development and Testing

Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Todd Hutchinson, The Weather Company; Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL

1:30 PM

7B.1

Data Assimilation Development and Testing for the Initial Version of the FV3-GFS

Daryl T. Kleist, NCEP, College Park, MD; and R. B. Mahajan, C. Thomas, J. C. Derber, R. Treadon, A. Collard, and J. Whitaker

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

7B.2

Data Assimilation Development for the 2019 Operational FV3-GFS

Catherine Thomas, IMSG, College Park, MD; and R. Mahajan, D. T. Kleist, R. Treadon, and J. S. Whitaker

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7B.3

Development of a GSI-based Global Data Assimilation System for the Model for Prediction Across Scales

James P. Cipriani, The Weather Company, Yorktown Heights, NY; and B. A. Wilt, T. Hutchinson, and J. Wong

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7B.4

Building Functional Similar Testing System for Community Researchers to Contribute Operational Storm-Scale Data Assimilation

Ming Hu, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. Ge, C. Zhou, C. R. Alexander, and S. Weygandt

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7B.5

Further Improvements of Radial Wind Assimilation in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model

Guoqing Ge, CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and M. Hu, C. Zhou, J. Beck, S. Weygandt, and C. Alexander

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

7B.6

Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation for Cloud Hydrometeors in GSI

Therese T. Ladwig, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. Hu, C. R. Alexander, S. S. Weygandt, D. C. Dowell, S. G. Benjamin, and J. M. Brown

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

7B.7

Predictions of Tornado-like Vortex Embedded in the 8 May 2003 Oklahoma City Tornadic Supercell Initialized from the Sub-Kilometer Analysis Produced By the GSI-Based EnVar Data Assimilation System

Yongming Wang, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

7B.8

Storm-Scale Satellite Data Assimilation into the WoF GSI-EnKF System: Recent Results and Future Plans

Swapan Mallick, CIMMS, NOAA/ NSSL, Norman, OK; and T. A. Jones, K. H. Knopfmeier, D. C. Dowell, X. Wang, P. Skinner, and P. Minnis

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Aspen Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Formal Poster Viewing

Location: Aspen Ballroom (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Joint Poster Session 1

WAF/NWP Poster Session I

Location: Aspen Ballroom (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Hosts: (Joint between the 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting; and the 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )

Chair: Christopher D. McCray, McGill University

1

The Occurrences of Significant Tornadoes Across the High Plains Under Favorable Synoptic Conditions

Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University, Denver, CO; and T. K. Croan

2

The Effects of Differential Friction on PBL Kinematics and Possible Influences on Tornadoes and CI

Timothy A. Coleman, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and A. M. Weigel

3

Climatology of High-Impact Supercells over Northeastern Wyoming and Western South Dakota

Keith D. Sherburn, NOAA/NWS, Rapid City, SD; and M. J. Bunkers

4

Research and Operational Challenges Posed by the 18 November 2017 High-Shear/Low-CAPE QLCS Tornado Outbreak in North Alabama

Anthony W. Lyza, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. Knupp

5

A Recent Climatological Look at Tornado Events Relative to Sunset

Erik R. Nielsen, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and G. R. Herman, J. M. Peters, and R. S. Schumacher

6

Dynamical Insights into Extreme Short-Term Precipitation Associated with Supercells and Mesovortices

Erik R. Nielsen, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

7

Research on Atmospheric Conditions supporting MCSs over East China in Summer

Liu Zhang, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

8

Analysis of Back-Building of a Simulated MCS in an Environment with a Low Level Stable Layer

Stacey M. Hitchcock, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

9

An Investigation of the Conditional Practical Predictability of the 31 May 2013 Heavy-Rain–Producing Mesoscale Convective System

Aidan R. Kuroski, Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans

10

Analysis of Convectively Generated Gravity Waves in the 14-15 July 2015 Mesoscale Convective System During PECAN

Faith P. Groff, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher and R. Adams-Selin

11

Evaluation of HAILCAST during NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments using Multiple Verification Metrics

Rebecca Adams-Selin, NOAA; and A. Clark, C. Melick, S. R. Dembek, I. L. Jirak, and C. Ziegler

12

Impact of Increased Resolution on Storm-Scale Ensemble Performance in the US Southeast

John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin

13

Improving NWS Convection-Allowing Hazardous Weather Ensemble Forecasts through Optimizing Multi-Scale Initial Condition (IC) Perturbations

Aaron Johnson, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang

14

Enhancing Storm-Scale 1-h Probabilistic Low-Level Rotation Forecasts through Machine Learning

Montgomery L. Flora, University of Oklahoma, CIMMS, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, A. McGovern, and P. S. Skinner

15

Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts Using the Model for Prediction across Scales

Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. S. Schwartz

16

How Well Can a Climate Model Simulate an Extreme Precipitation Event: a Case Study using Transpose-AMIP Experiment

Jian LI, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and H. Chen

17

New Data for Old Storms: Can New, Convection-Allowing Ensemble Simulations of Historic Storms Help Minimize Present-Day Flood Risk?

Kelly Mahoney, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and C. McColl, B. D. Kappel, and D. M. Hultstrand

18

The Impact of Microphysics Schemes in Convection-Allowing Simulations of Banded Snowfall

Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University, Mt. Pleasant, MI; and P. N. Schumacher, J. T. Radford, and G. M. Lackmann

19

Multiscale Frontal Circulations during the 6–8 January 2014 Lake-Effect Snow Event: Understanding their Superposition and Predictability using Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts

W. Massey Bartolini, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Minder, C. S. Schwartz, D. Keyser, and R. D. Torn

20

The Weather Prediction Center Day 8-10 Forecast Experiment: Development and Utilization of Forecast Tools

William S. Lamberson, IMSG, College Park, MD; and M. J. Bodner, S. Ganetis, J. Kastman, and J. A. Nelson Jr.

21

Assessing the Subseasonal Predictability of PV Streamer Activity compared to Tropical Cyclone activity using the Navy Earth System Model

Philippe P. Papin, NRC/NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. Reynolds and M. A. Janiga

22

Verification of Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones.

Nicholas Leonardo, Stony Brook University - SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

23

Using the Big Weather Web Ensemble to Examine Systemic Biases in WRF-model Parameterizations

Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. Tyle

Handout (62.2 MB)

24

Using SURFRAD and CERES Datasets to Evaluate Physics Parameterizations

Michelle Harrold, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Zhang, J. K. Wolff, L. Bernardet, and J. K. Henderson

25

The Model Evaluation Tools (MET): Recent Additions and Enhancements

John E. Halley Gotway, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, R. Bullock, H. Soh, and J. Prestopnik

26

Development of an Adaptive Ensemble Technique

Tyler J. Wixtrom, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

27

Dependence of Model Performance on Vertical Resolution for Operational Prediction

Haixia Mei, Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Science, Nanjing, China; and X. Z. Liang, M. Zeng, C. Sun, Y. Li, and Q. Li

28

Diagnosis of the Radiation Fluxes in Grapes-GFS and Related Improvements

Women's Dinner

Registration Open

Location: 2nd Floor Lobby (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Session 8A

Forecasting Tools: New Applications

Location: Colorado A (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/OU/NSSL; Gail Hartfield, NOAA/NWS

8:00 AM

8A.1

A Vision for the Development and Implementation of the Warn-on-Forecast Concept (Invited Presentation)

Pamela L. Heinselman, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

8A.2

Forecasts on Demand for Renewable Energy and Agriculture at The Weather Company, an IBM Business

Alexander G. Kalmikov, The Weather Company, Andover, MA; and J. K. Williams, C. S. Guiang, J. I. Belanger, J. P. Koval, J. Juban, D. Winn, T. Crawford, H. C. Hassenzahl, and P. Neilley

Recorded Presentation

Handout (6.0 MB)

8:45 AM

8A.3

The Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System Expansion into the Transportation Sector

Heather D. Reeves, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. Handler, A. A. Rosenow, K. W. Howard, K. Cooper, A. E. Reinhart, D. M. Kingfield, R. Toomey, S. B. Cocks, M. J. Simpson, and A. P. Osborne

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

8A.4

The Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely Sensed Storms Progress Update and Research Overview

Anthony E. Reinhart, CIMMS, and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and K. L. Ortega and T. M. Smith

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

8A.5

Shear Available Potential Energy (SHAPE): A Quantitative Measure of the Effect of Wind Shear on Convective Updraft Potential

Timothy A. Coleman, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. Knupp

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

8A.6

Using the Downdraft Convective Inhibition (DCIN) to Evaluate Severe Weather Threats from Elevated Convection

Kevin Grempler, Univ. of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. S. Market, C. B. Henson, and S. Ritter

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

8A.7

National Weather Service Baltimore/Washington's Model Verification Internal Web Display

Michael Muccilli, NWS Baltimore/Washington, Sterling, VA

Recorded Presentation

Session 8B

New Data Assimilation Techniques

Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: James P. Cipriani, The Weather Company; Catherine Thomas, IMSG

8:00 AM

8B.1

Assessment of Covariance Inflation Options for a Continuously-Cycled Mesoscale EnKF Analysis System

Glen Romine, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Schwartz and K. Fossell

Recorded Presentation

8B.2

Testing an Optimized 4D-Var Technique in NWP Models

8:30 AM

8B.3

NRL Four-dimensional Variational Radar Data Assimilation for Improved Near-term and Short-term Storm Prediction

Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. R. Holt, P. Harasti, C. M. Amerault, L. Xu, N. Baker, J. Doyle, Y. Jin, H. Jin, M. Frost, Q. Xu, H. J. Chen, B. S. Chua, and D. Geiszler

Recorded Presentation

Handout (3.0 MB)

8B.4

Improved COAMPS-TC Tropical Cyclone Predictions Using a Dynamic Initialization Scheme With Rapid-Scan Atmospheric Motion Vectors and ONR TCI datasets

9:00 AM

8B.5

Correcting Storm Displacement Errors in Ensembles Using the Feature Alignment Technique (FAT)

Derek R. Stratman, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin and L. J. Wicker

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

8B.6

Nonlinear Bias Correction for Satellite Data Assimilation

Jason Otkin, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and R. Potthast and A. Lawless

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

8B.7

Radio Occultation Observation Operators for Data Assimilation

Razvan Stefanescu, Spire Global, Inc., Boulder, CO; and M. Gorbunov, V. Irisov, D. Zupanski, R. McKeown, T. Brown, C. Holt, and A. E. MacDonald

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

8B.8

The Use of Sky Cameras to Validate and Augment Satellite/Radar Based Cloud Assimilation

Steve Albers, CIRA, Boulder, CO; and D. Nietfeld and Z. Toth

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Colorado Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Session 9A

Forecasting Tools: Machine Learning Applications

Location: Colorado A (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Nathan Snook, CAPS; Gail Hartfield, NOAA/NWS

10:30 AM

9A.1

Deep Learning for CONUS-Wide Prediction of Thunderstorm Wind in Real-time

Ryan A. Lagerquist, CIMMS, Norman, OK; and A. McGovern

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

9A.2

Hail Forecasting with Interpretable Deep Learning

David John Gagne II, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

9A.3

Evaluation of a Machine-Learning Model for the Prediction of Heavy and Extreme Rainfall

Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and G. R. Herman, S. Perfater, and B. Albright

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

9A.4

Using Evolutionary Programming to Generate Improved Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts

Jesse Schaffer, University of Wisconsin−Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and P. Roebber and C. Evans

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

9A.5

Using Ecosystem Dynamics to Evolve Skillful Ensemble Forecasts

Paul Roebber, University of Wisconsin−Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

9A.6

Using Self Organizing Map Transition Matrices as a Forecast Tool

Andrea Nicole Honor, University of Wisconsin Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and P. Roebber

Recorded Presentation

Session 9B

New or Improved Parameterizations II

Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Jason M. English, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder; Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University

10:30 AM

9B.1

The NOAA/EMC Vision for the Parameterization of Atmospheric Physical Processes in the Emerging National Unified Forecast System

John S. Kain, NOAA, College Park, MD; and S. Moorthi, V. Tallapragada, L. R. Bernardet, C. Bretherton, J. Doyle, and G. Grell

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

9B.2

Impacts of Background Albedo Dataset on WRF Model Simulations

Jared A. Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Barlage and G. Thompson

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

9B.3

Implementation and Evaluation of MG Microphysics in FV3GFS

Anning Cheng, NOAA, College Park, MD; and S. Moorthi, Y. T. Hou, A. Gettelman, H. Morrison, F. Yang, J. Wang, R. Sun, D. Barahona, S. Lu, J. Kain, and V. Tallapragada

Handout (896.0 kB)

11:15 AM

9B.4

Assessing the Impact of Stochastic Cloud Microphysics in High-Resolution Models Using GOES-16 Infrared Brightness Temperatures

Jason Otkin, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and S. M. Griffin, G. Thompson, J. Berner, F. Kong, and M. E. Frediani

Recorded Presentation

9B.5

Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts of the 10–12 December 2013 Lake-Effect Snow Event: Sensitivity to Microphysical Parameterizations

11:45 AM

9B.6

Evaluating Cloud Microphysical Schemes in Simulating Orographic Precipitation Using Intensive OLYMPEX field instrumentation

Brian A. Colle, SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and A. Naeger, N. Zhou, and A. L. Molthan

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Session 10A

Mesoscale Meteorology and Severe Local Storms I: Modeling Studies of Mcss and Other Convective Events

Location: Colorado A (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL; Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR

1:30 PM

10A.1

Progress in Forecasting Derechoes with the NCAR-WRF High-ResolutionEnsemble

Morris Weisman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Schwartz and K. Manning

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

10A.2

MCS Evolution in Response to Convectively-Generated Low-Frequency Gravity Waves

Rebecca Adams-Selin, NOAA; and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

10A.3

Mid-latitude Squall Lines Interacting with Offshore Stable Boundary Layers

Kelly Lombardo, Univ. of Connecticut, Groton, CT; and R. M. Hastings

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10A.4

Can Moisture and Temperature Errors Within the Inflow Region be used to Predict MCS Displacement Errors in WRF?

Nicholas J Vertz, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and B. J. Squitieri

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

10A.5

A Preliminary Evaluation of Paired Regional/Convection-Allowing Model-Forecast Vertical Profiles in Warm-Season, Thunderstorm-Supporting Environments

Clark Evans, UW-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and S. J. Weiss and I. L. Jirak

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

10A.6

Evaluating the Frontal Influence on Convection Using Parcel Trajectories

Chasity B. Henson, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO; and P. Market

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

10A.7

Bayesian Modeling of Reporting Biases in the SPC Tornado Database

Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS, and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. Broyles, P. S. Skinner, and H. E. Brooks

Recorded Presentation

Session 10B

Forecast Verification Methods and Performance I

Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Jacob R. Carley, NOAA/NCEP/EMC; Burkely T. Gallo, CIMMS/NSSL

1:30 PM

10B.1

To Mme or Not to Mme, That's the Question

Hendrik L. Tolman, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

10B.2

A New Method for the Estimation of Analysis and Forecast Error Variance

Zoltan Toth, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Feng and M. Peña

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

10B.3

Assessing the Spread/Error Relationship for East Coast Winter Cyclones

Taylor S Mandelbaum, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and T. Alcott and B. A. Colle

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10B.4

Exploring a Practical Path to More Skilful Ensemble Forecasts

Mark J. Rodwell, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

10B.5

Forecast Sensitivities of Mcs Stratiform Precipitation Shields to Changes in Horizontal Grid Spacing in WRF Simulations

Brian Joseph Squitieri, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

10B.6

Microphysical and Horizontal Grid Spacing Influences on WRF Forecasts of Stratiform Rain Regions and General Convective Morphology Evolution in Nocturnal MCSs

Jonathan E. Thielen, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and B. J. Squitieri

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

10B.7

An Evaluation of the Grell-Freitas Cumulus Scheme in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting System

Kathryn M. Newman, NCAR and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Biswas, E. A. Kalina, E. Grell, L. Bernardet, G. Grell, L. Carson, and J. Frimel

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

10B.8

A Comparison of the Impact of Using Downscaled and Convection-Permitting Analyses on Model Behavior

May Wong, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. S. Romine and C. Snyder

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Colorado Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Session 11A

Forecasting Techniques: New Data Products and Analyses

Location: Colorado A (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Chunhua Zhou, NCAR; Jason Otkin, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison

4:00 PM

11A.1

The Role of WSR-88D VCPs and Intra-Volume Scanning Strategies on Volumetric Analyses of Thunderstorm Intensity using Simulated Observations

Anthony E. Reinhart, Univ. of Oklahoma/CIMMS & NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. M. Kingfield

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

11A.2

Development and Evaluation of a Three-Dimensional Rapidly Updating Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA)

Stephen S. Weygandt, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander, G. Ge, T. T. Ladwig, C. Hartsough, and J. R. Carley

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

11A.3

Improved Quality Control of Mesonet Observations in the Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis System

Steven Levine, Systems Research Group, Colorado Springs, CO; and J. R. Carley, M. Pondeca, B. J. Miretzky, M. E. Jeglum, A. A. Jacques, and J. C. Derber

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

11A.4

Assimilation of S-NPP VIIRS Land Surface Temperature into NCEP Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) System over Alaska

Xiaoyan Zhang, IMSG, Rockville, MD; and J. C. Derber, A. Collard, J. Carley, M. Pondeca, and E. Petrescu

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

11A.5

Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Data Products

Jeffrey Weinrich, JPSS Program Office/Global Science & Technology, Inc., Lanham, MD

Recorded Presentation

11A.6

Quantifying Information Content of GNSS Radio Occultation Observations from Spire Global CubeSats

Session 11B

New Ensemble and Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques I

Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL; James I. Belanger, The Weather Company

4:00 PM

11B.1

Testing of Updated Methods for Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting in the Nws's National Blend of Models.

Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

11B.2

The Performance of NCEP GEFS in Past 20 Years

Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, CO; and Y. Luo, B. Cui, and J. Peng

Recorded Presentation

11B.3

Application of Targeted Post-Processing to NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasts for Hurricane Irma'2017

4:45 PM

11B.4

Calibration of 2-m Temperature Forecasts using the Bayesian Processor of Ensemble (BPE)

Yi Wang, GSD, Boulder, CO; and Z. Toth, M. S. Antolik, G. J. Layne, M. A. Petty, C. Buxton, M. Peña, and Y. Zhu

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

11B.5

Improving Medium-Range Severe Weather Forecasting with Random Forests

Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

11B.6

Using TIGGE Data to Analyze Features of Time Series of Forecast Uncertainty

Justin G. McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. H. Bishop, D. Hodyss, and E. A. Satterfield

Recorded Presentation

Early Career Networking Reception

Registration Open

Location: 2nd Floor Lobby (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Session 12A

Research to Operations and Forecast Verification I

Location: Colorado A (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC; Sarah Perfater, Cherokee Nation Business

8:00 AM

12A.1

The Weather Prediction Center Development and Training Branch: Research to Operations Activities

James A. Nelson Jr., NCEP, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

12A.2

NOAA Plans for Numerical Guidance, Products and Services at Subseasonal to Seasonal Timescales

Timothy L. Schneider, NWS/Office of Science and Technology Integration, Boulder, CO; and D. DeWitt, F. Toepfer, V. Tallapragada, A. Chawla, J. Gottschalck, K. Keith, I. Stajner, and N. P. Kurkowski

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

12A.3

Development/Implementation of Data Assimilation System for Operational Ocean Forecasting at NCEP

Shastri Paturi, EMC and IMSG, College Park, MD; and A. Mehra, Z. D. Garraffo, I. Rivin, J. Cummings, H. C. Kim, and A. Chawla

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

12A.4

Severe Weather Algorithm Development and Improvement Activities for the WSR-88D at NSSL/CIMMS Under the ROC Tech Transfer MOU

Kiel L. Ortega, CIMMS/University of Oklahoma and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and D. W. Burgess, K. L. Elmore, M. C. Mahalik, and B. R. Smith

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

12A.5

Validating a WRF Ensemble Using IMPOWR Field Data for Two Fire Weather Days in Central New Jersey

Keenan R. Fryer, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle and J. J. Charney

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

12A.6

"Prototypes" from The Weather Company's Probability Forecast Platform: A Tool for Forecasting Uncertainty in Weather-Dependent Outcomes

John K. Williams, The Weather Company, Andover, MA; and P. Neilley, J. I. Belanger, A. G. Kalmikov, S. Marshall, and J. McDonald

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

12A.7

Mean What You Say-Calibration and Verification of the Probability Forecast Platform (PFP) at The Weather Company

James I. Belanger, The Weather Company, Atlanta, GA; and J. K. Williams, J. McDonald, J. P. Koval, A. G. Kalmikov, and P. Neilley

Recorded Presentation

Session 12B

Improving Model Performance and Efficiency I

Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Jacob R. Carley, NOAA/NCEP/EMC; Michael J. Kavulich Jr., NCAR

8:00 AM

12B.1

A Decade in Community-Supported Development of the Frequently Updated RAP and HRRR Model Forecast Systems: From Research to Operations and Back Again (WAF Early Career Award)

Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

12B.2

Rapid Cycling in the Last Frontier: Improving Model Initialization over Alaska

Trevor Alcott, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and M. Hu, D. C. Dowell, and C. R. Alexander

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

12B.3

Testing the Impact of Additional Vertical Levels for the 3km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh

Eric P. James, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander and J. M. Brown

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

12B.4

The Influence of Vertical Advection Discretization in the WRF-ARW Model on Capping Inversion Representation in Warm-Season, Thunderstorm-Supporting Environments

David Nevius, UW-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and C. Evans

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

12B.5

Intercomparison of Seven Planetary Layer/Surface Layer Physics Schemes over Complex Terrain for Battlefield Situational Awareness Applications

Richard S. Penc, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, WSMR, NM; and J. A. Smith, J. W. Raby, R. E. Dumais Jr., B. P. Reen, and L. Dawson

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (601.8 kB)

9:30 AM

12B.6

Use of Non-iteration Dimensional-split Semi-Lagrangian (NDSL) in Central Weather Bureau Global Forecast System

PangYen Liu, CWB, Taipei City, Taiwan; and J. H. Chen and H. M. Juang

Recorded Presentation

12B.7

Ocean Model Impact Study for Operational Hurricane Blanca Forecasting

Coffee Break

Location: Colorado Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Session 13A

Research to Operations and Forecast Verification II

Location: Colorado A (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Adam Clark, NOAA/NSSL; Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC

10:30 AM

13A.1

NASA Participation in the International Collaborative Experiment for the PyeongChang Olympics and Paralympic Winter 2018 Games (ICE-POP)

Walter A. Petersen, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL; and J. L. Case, J. Srikishen, R. E. Allen, P. J. Meyer, J. B. Roberts, W. K. Tao, T. Iguchi, M. R. Smith, F. J. LaFontaine, E. B. Berndt, A. L. Molthan, and B. T. Zavodsky

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

13A.2

Object-Based Verification of Forecasted Atmospheric River Objects

Laurel L. DeHaan, SIO, La Jolla, CA; and A. Martin

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

13A.3

An Update on the Community Effort for Convection Allowing Model (CAM) Scorecarding

Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and A. Clark, C. P. Kalb, P. Skinner, J. Levit, and C. R. Alexander

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

13A.4

How Developmental Testbed Center is Facilitating Transitioning Research Innovations into the Operational HWRF Model

Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. M. Newman, E. A. Kalina, E. Grell, J. Frimel, L. Carson, and L. Bernardet

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

13A.5

Testing the Distance-Based Spatial Forecast Verification Methods on a New More Rigorous Set of Contrived Cases

Eric Gilleland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Skok

11:45 AM

13A.6

New and Planned NWP Training from UCAR’s COMET® Program

William R. Bua, UCAR/COMET, College Park, MD; and A. Bol and A. Stevermer

Recorded Presentation

Session 13B

Improving Model Performance and Efficiency II

Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Alicia M. Bentley, SUNY; Justin McLay, NRL

10:30 AM

13B.1

Continental Convection, Rossby Wave Packets and Regime Change in the Middle Latitude and Arctic

David B. Parsons, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and S. P. Lillo

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

13B.2

Testing Physical Parameterization Development in a Single-column Model Framework for Operational NWP

Grant J. Firl, NCAR, and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and L. Xue, L. Bernardet, and D. Heinzeller

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

13B.3

Development of Deep Atmospheric Dynamics (DAD) in NCEP FV3 for Applications on Whole-Atmosphere Modeling

Hann-Ming Henry Juang, NCEP, College Park, MD; and S. K. Kar and A. Kubaryk

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

13B.4

Verification of FV3 Forecasts Using the Model Evaluation for Research Innovation Transition (MERIT) Testing Framework

Tracy J. Hertneky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Ketefian, J. Beck, I. Jankov, J. Wolff, C. Williams, M. Harrold, and L. Blank

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

13B.5

Enhancing Community Collaborations through NWP Software Containers

Michael J. Kavulich Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Gotway, M. Harrold, J. K. Wolff, K. Fossell, and J. Exby

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

13B.6

Statistical Design of Experiments in Numerical Weather Prediction: Some Emerging Results

Jeffrey A. Smith, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and R. S. Penc and J. W. Raby

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (522.4 kB)

Lunch Break

Location: Colorado Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Session 14A

Forecasting Techniques: New Data Types and Observational Platforms

Location: Colorado A (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University; Glen Romine, NCAR

1:30 PM

14A.1

High Resolution Forecasting and Observation System Experiments in the CASA Dallas-Fort Worth Urban Testbed

Keith A. Brewster, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. H. Carr, M. T. Morris, A. P. Osborne, and K. W. Thomas

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

14A.2

Assessing Impacts of Assimilating Surface Observations for the Forecast of Convection Initiation on 3 April 2014 within the Dallas-Fort Worth Urban Testbed

Nicholas Antonio Gasperoni, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang, F. H. Carr, and K. A. Brewster

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

14A.3

Impact of assimilating AERI and Doppler Wind Lidar Retrievals on Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts of Thunderstorms

Michael C. Coniglio, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and G. S. Romine, D. D. Turner, and R. D. Torn

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

14A.4

Next-generation Rapid-Scan Phased Array Radar Observations on Storm-scale NWP for Hazardous Weather Forecasts

Nusrat Yussouf, CIMMS/OU/NSSL, Norman, OK; and Y. Jung, T. A. Supinie, D. R. Stratman, and B. J. Putnam

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

14A.5

Impact of Ground Based Remote Sensing Boundary Layer Observations on Convective-Scale NWP

Junjun Hu, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf, D. D. Turner, X. Wang, and T. A. Jones

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

14A.6

On the Potential for using Unmanned Aircraft Systems for Mesoscale Analysis and Short-range Numerical Weather Prediction of Severe Convection

Steven E. Koch, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

14A.7

Observation System Simulation Experiment Studies (OSSEs) on the Use of Small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS) for Boundary Layer Sampling

Andrew D. Moore, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and F. H. Carr, K. A. Brewster, and P. B. Chilson

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

14A.8

Himawari-8 AHI Data Assimilation impact on Hurricane Dujuan with HWRF

Zaizhong Ma, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu and A. Mehra

Recorded Presentation

Session 14B

New Ensemble and Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques at the Hazardous Weather Testbed

Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Christopher J. Melick, 557th Weather Wing; Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL

1:30 PM

14B.1

Inter-model Storm-scale Comparisons from the 2017 HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment

Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS, and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Carley, A. Clark, L. J. Wicker, P. S. Skinner, A. E. Reinhart, and J. S. Kain

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

14B.2

Ensemble Simulations of a Case from the 2017 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed using the Unified Model

Kirsty Hanley, Met Office, Reading, United Kingdom; and H. Lean

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

14B.3

Practical Predictability of Supercells: Exploring Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Initial Condition Spread

Montgomery L. Flora, University of Oklahoma, CIMMS, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin and L. J. Wicker

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

14B.4

Object-Based Probabilistic Forecasting of Severe Weather Hazards in the 2018 HWT Spring Experiment: A Multi-Variable Probabilistic Approach for Research and Operations.

Aaron Johnson, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang, A. Clark, and I. L. Jirak

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

14B.5

The Impact of Adding Mixed Physics to a Mixed Initial and Lateral Boundary Condition Ensemble Used for Convection Forecasts-Results from the 2016 and 2017 Community Leveraged Unified Ensembles

William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and J. Halley Gotway, J. Wolff, and M. Harrold

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

14B.6

Exploring the Optimal Configuration of the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast System

Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, B. Roberts, B. T. Gallo, and S. J. Weiss

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

3:00 PM

14B.7

Web-Based Visualization and Evaluation of Convection-Allowing Ensembles for Severe Weather Forecasting Applications

Brett Roberts, NSSL, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, and S. J. Weiss

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

14B.8

The 2018 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment

Adam Clark, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, B. Gallo, S. J. Weiss, L. J. Wicker, S. R. Dembek, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. Thomas, K. H. Knopfmeier, G. J. Creager, K. A. Brewster, Y. Jung, B. Roberts, G. Romine, C. Alexander, X. Wang, S. M. Willington, Y. Wang, A. T. Johnson, L. M. Harris, M. J. Morin, S. J. Lin, R. M. Hepper, T. A. Supinie, and A. R. Dean

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Aspen Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Formal Poster Viewing

Location: Aspen Ballroom (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Joint Poster Session 2

WAF/NWP Poster Session II

Location: Aspen Ballroom (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )

Chair: Christopher D. McCray, McGill University

29

The Use of Integrated Enstrophy in Blocking and Flow Regime Transition for Operational Forecasting

Joshua Kastman, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and S. A. Ganetis, W. S. Lamberson, M. J. Bodner, P. S. Market, and A. R. Lupo

30

Developing a Probabilistic Heavy-Rainfall Guidance Forecast Model for Great Lakes Cities

Cory Rothstein, University of Wisconsin Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and P. Roebber

31

Influences of Coastal Geometry and Orography on Lake- and Sea-Effect Precipitation

W. James Steenburgh, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and L. Campbell, P. G. Veals, T. West, T. M. Gowan, and S. Nakai

32

Risk, Information, and Vulnerability for Evolving Tornado Threats: Examining the 22 January 2017 EF-3 Tornadoes in Adel and Albany, Georgia

Julie L. Demuth, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. Lazrus, J. Henderson, J. Vickery, R. E. Morss, K. D. Ash, K. M. Anderson, and L. Palen

33

Synoptic- and Meso-Scale Weather Patterns associated with the Rapid Glacier Loss Across the Semi-Arid Chilean Andes

Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University, Denver, CO; and J. Janke, A. Bellisario, and S. Reichlin

34

The Role of the North Pacific Jet in Two West Coast Atmospheric River Events during February 2017

Eli Turasky, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. C. Winters, L. F. Bosart, and D. Keyser

35

An Examination of the 30 January 2018 Long Island Snowfall Forecast Bust

Ryan Connelly, Stony Brook University - SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle and K. Fryer

36

High-resolution WRF Forecasts of Mid-21st Century Urban Extreme Heat Events

David E. Jahn, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., Y. Zhou, K. Cetin, and E. Jahani

37

The 22-26 December 2013 Caribbean Rainstorm

Marshall Pfahler, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

38

Using Machine Learning to Predict Road Temperatures

Shawn Handler, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. D. Reeves

39

Observation Informed Generalized Hybrid Error Covariance Models

Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. Hodyss, D. D. Kuhl, and C. H. Bishop

40

Improving the Land Surface Forecast in Navy’s Global Atmospheric Model

Ming Liu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Langland, M. Martini, and K. C. Viner

41

Short-Term Wind Prediction over Dallas Fort Worth (DFW) Urban Network

Chandrasekar Radhakrishnan, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. V. Chandra

42

Evaluating the WRF-Hydro Modeling System in Alaska

Nicholas J. Elmer, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and A. L. Molthan and J. R. Mecikalski

43

Influence of Prescribed Rocky Mountain Springtime Snowpack on Evolution of Summertime Precipitation in the Great Plains

Matthew A. Campbell, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. R. Ferguson, D. A. Burrows, and L. F. Bosart

44

Improved Forecasts of Cold Pools in Complex Terrain from WFIP2

Jaymes Kenyon, NOAA/ESRL and CIRES, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, M. Toy, J. M. Brown, W. M. Angevine, M. Marquis, C. Draxl, Y. Pichugina, A. Choukulkar, T. A. Bonin, R. Banta, L. Bianco, I. V. Djalalova, K. McCaffrey, J. M. Wilczak, K. Lantz, C. N. Long, S. Redfern, J. Sharp, J. McCaa, M. T. Stoelinga, E. P. Grimit, and L. K. Berg

45

Study on Reconstructing Tropical Cyclone Wind Field By the Generalized Additive Model

Jian Liang, Guangdong Meteorological Bureau, Guangzhou, China; and S. Tang, C. Qian, L. Lin, and B. Huang

46

A Comparison of NAM CONUS Nest Failures and Successes to Regional 3-Km FV3 Runs with Different Microphysics Schemes.

Eric Aligo, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA and I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College Park, MD

Handout (2.8 MB)

47

Predictability Experiments with a Non-Hydrostatic Global Model over a Cubed Sphere Grid

Song-You Hong, Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)

48

Development of a Subgrid-Scale Orographic Drag Parameterization Suite for the NOAA Rap/HRRR Atmospheric Model

Michael D. Toy, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, T. Smirnova, J. S. Kenyon, J. M. Brown, and G. Grell

49

Making Forecasts Better-Community Infrastructure for Facilitating Improvement and Testing of Physical Parameterizations

Dom Heinzeller, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, and Univ. of Colorado/CIRES, and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and L. Bernardet, G. J. Firl, L. Carson, C. W. Harrop, P. A. Jimenez, G. Ketefian, J. Schramm, D. Stark, L. Xue, M. Zhang, and D. Gill

Handout (5.4 MB)

50

Developing the MYNN-Eddy Diffusivity/Mass-Flux PBL Scheme to Improve Non-Local Mixing Across the Greyzone

Joseph B. Olson, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. Kenyon, W. M. Angevine, G. Grell, J. M. Brown, and K. Suselj

51

Applying a General Nonlinear Transformation to the Analysis of Surface Visibility and Cloud Ceiling Height

Runhua Yang, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and R. J. Purser, J. R. Carley, M. Pondeca, Y. Zhu, and W. S. Wu

52

High Resolution Weather Forecast of CWB-GFS Nested with NCEP-RSM

Ying-Ju Chen, CWB, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. M. H. Juang and J. H. Chen

Handout (1.5 MB)

53

Scientific and Technical Documentation for Parameterizations in the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP)

Man Zhang, CU/CIRES at NOAA Global Systems Division and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Firl, L. Bernardet, and V. Kunkel

54

Assimilation of GOES-16 Derived Layer Precipitable Water and Radar Data Using a 3D Ensemble-Variational Hybrid Analysis Technique: Impact on Thunderstorm Forecasting

Sijie Pan, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and J. Gao, Y. Wang, T. A. Jones, J. Li, and X. Wang

55

Assimilation of Pseudo Water Vapor and Radar Data for Convective-Scale NWP in a Variational Framework

Anwei Lai, NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Gao, S. Koch, and C. CUI

56

Testing and Evaluation of the Radar Data Assimilation and Its Impact on Convective Forecast for the 3-Km High Resolution Regional Applications

Chunhua Zhou, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Hu, Y. Zhang, and G. Ge

Registration Open

Location: 2nd Floor Lobby (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Session 15A

Mesoscale Meteorology and Severe Local Storms II: Observational Analyses from Vortex-SE and Other Events

Location: Colorado A (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS, and NOAA/OAR/NSSL; Erik R. Nielsen, Colorado State Univ.

8:00 AM

15A.1

Field Campaign Results from the VORTEX-SE Program

Steven E. Koch, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and E. N. Rasmussen

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

15A.2

A Significant Tornado in a Heterogeneous Environment During VORTEX-SE

Timothy A. Coleman, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and A. W. Lyza, K. Knupp, K. B. Laws, and W. Wyatt

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

15A.3

An Observational and Numerical Modeling Study of Rapid Changes in the Pre-Storm Boundary Layer of a Severe Nocturnal QLCS during VORTEX-SE on 9-10 March 2017

David Haliczer, University of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. Knupp

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

15A.4

29-30 November 2016 Northern Alabama Tornado Outbreak: Radar and Vertical Profiling Observations of a Complex Supercell Mesocyclone

Carter B. Hulsey, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and K. R. Knupp and A. W. Lyza

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

15A.5

Using Observations and Numerical Simulations to Assess the Effects of Topography on the 29-30 November 2016 Tornado Outbreak in Northeastern Alabama

Anthony W. Lyza, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and X. Li, K. Knupp, and J. R. Mecikalski

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

15A.6

Doppler Radar Observations of a Tornadic Mesovortex in the 04 January 2015 Quasi-Linear Convective System

Dustin M. Conrad, Univ. of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and K. R. Knupp

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

15A.7

Rapid-Scan Radar Observations of Zdr Column Depth and Its Potential Use During the Warning Decision Process

Charles M. Kuster, CIMMS/NOAA NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. C. Snyder, T. J. Schuur, J. W. Brogden, R. Toomey, and P. L. Heinselman

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.2 MB)

9:45 AM

15A.8

Damaging Downslope Surface Winds Associated with a Great Plains Cyclone

Jeff Kelley, NWS, Hastings, NE; and D. M. Schultz and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

Session 15B

New Ensemble and Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques II

Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: James I. Belanger, The Weather Company; Christopher Melick, 557th Weather Wing

8:00 AM

15B.1

Evaluating the NCAR Ensemble’s Initialization Approach

Craig S. Schwartz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. S. Romine, R. A. Sobash, K. R. Fossell, and M. Wong

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

15B.2

Addressing Model Uncertainty through Stochastic Parameter Perturbations within the Thompson Microphysics Scheme as part of a High Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble

Jamie K. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Thompson, I. Jankov, J. Beck, M. Harrold, M. J. Kavulich Jr., and L. Blank

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

15B.3

Forecasting and Monitoring Intense Thunderstorms in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region: Spring 2018 Forecasting Experiment

Jonathan L. Case, ENSCO, Inc., Huntsville, AL; and P. N. Gatlin, J. Srikishen, J. Knickerbocker, J. R. Bell, R. E. Allen, P. J. Meyer, D. J. Cecil, and W. A. Petersen

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.5 MB)

8:45 AM

15B.4

Km-scale Ensemble Simulations over Singapore

Aurore Porson, Met Office, Reading, United Kingdom; and D. Boyd, S. Hagelin, and J. C. F. Lo

9:00 AM

15B.5

Land-Surface Parameter and State Perturbations in the Global Ensemble Forecast System

Maria Gehne, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill, G. Bates, P. Pegion, and W. Kolczynski Jr.

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

15B.6

Uncertainty²: Stochastic Perturbations in a Convective-Scale Ensemble

John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf and J. Kain

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

15B.7

Representing Uncertainties in the NOAA/NCEP Next Generation Global Prediction System Associated with Unresolved Convection

Lisa K Bengtsson, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. W. Bao, P. Pegion, and J. S. Whitaker

Recorded Presentation

Coffee Break

Location: Colorado Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Session 16A

Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting and Hydrology

Location: Colorado A (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting

Cochairs: Therese Ladwig, NOAA/ESRL/GSD; Aaron Johnson, Univ. of Oklahoma

10:30 AM

16A.1

Advances in Operational Extreme Rainfall Prediction

David R. Novak, NOAA/NWS, College Park, MD

Recorded Presentation

16A.2

Experimental LAMP 1-h Probabilistic QPF Guidance for the CONUS in Support of the National Weather Service’s National Blend of Models

11:00 AM

16A.3

A Look at the Performance of the Next Version of the HRRR Model for Some Recent Heavy Precipitation/High Impact Events

Ed Szoke, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRA, Boulder, CO; and S. Benjamin, J. M. Brown, C. R. Alexander, E. P. James, and T. Alcott

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

16A.4

The Extreme Precipitation Index (EPI): A Multivariate Metric to Diagnose Heavy Rainfall Associated with Atmospheric Flow Stagnation

Shawn M. Milrad, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ., Daytona Beach, FL; and E. H. Atallah, J. R. Gyakum, and J. Klepatzki

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

16A.5

Creating an Ensemble Streamflow Forecast Through the Systematic Shifting of QPF

Bradley R. Carlberg, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and K. J. Franz and W. A. Gallus Jr.

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

16A.6

Verifying Flash Floods: Pondering Precipitation Proxies

Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

16A.7

Understanding the Role of Forecast Forcings in National Water Model Errors

Kelly Mahoney, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and F. Viterbo, L. Wu, R. Cifelli, T. Vukicevic, and R. Wolford

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

16A.8

Use of the National Water Model and New Satellite Tools in the Hurricane Harvey Case

Matthew Kelsch, UCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

Session 16B

Forecast Verification Methods and Performance II

Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Cochairs: Louisa B. Nance, NCAR; Jonathan L. Case, ENSCO, Inc.

10:30 AM

16B.1

Current and Future Strategies for Verification and Post-Processing of Numerical Weather Prediction Models at the NOAA Environmental Modeling Center

Jason Levit, EMC, College Park, MD; and G. Manikin and H. Y. Chuang

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

16B.2

Unifying Verification with MET+: An Update

Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and J. Levit, B. Strong, I. Stajner, G. Manikin, and M. Row

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

16B.3

Modification of the Unified Post Processor (UPP) Version 3 to Achieve Improved Accuracy for Model Verification

John W. Raby, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and B. P. Reen and J. A. Smith

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (624.3 kB)

11:15 AM

16B.4

The Usefulness of High-Resolution Observational Data for Verification within the United States Air Force

Christopher J. Melick, 557th Weather Wing, Offutt AFB, NE; and W. T. Sedlacek and R. J. Craig

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

16B.5

Evaluating FV3 Performance during the Spring Severe Convection Season

Burkely T. Gallo, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. Clark, L. J. Wicker, C. K. Potvin, I. L. Jirak, Y. Wang, S. R. Dembek, S. J. Weiss, and P. L. Heinselman

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

16B.6

Verification of Convective Environment Forecasts from the NAM Parent and CONUS Nest within SPC Outlook Areas

Robert M. Hepper, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.5 MB)

12:00 PM

16B.7

Validation of Mountain Precipitation Forecasts from the Convection-Permitting NCAR Ensemble and Operational Forecast Systems over the Western United States

Thomas M. Gowan, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and W. J. Steenburgh and C. S. Schwartz

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

16B.8

Trends in Tropical Cyclone NWP in the HFIP decade 2007-2017

Mike Fiorino, CIRES, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

Conference Adjourns

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8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 7 June 2018

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 7 June 2018

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 7 June 2018

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 7 June 2018

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 7 June 2018

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 7 June 2018

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 7 June 2018

Friday, 8 June 2018

7:30 AM-12:30 PM: Friday, 8 June 2018

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 8 June 2018

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 8 June 2018

10:30 AM-12:30 PM: Friday, 8 June 2018

12:30 PM-12:40 PM: Friday, 8 June 2018

Sunday, 3 June 2018

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 3 June 2018

Monday, 4 June 2018

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 4 June 2018

8:15 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 4 June 2018

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 4 June 2018

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 4 June 2018

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 4 June 2018

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 4 June 2018

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 4 June 2018

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 4 June 2018

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 4 June 2018

Tuesday, 5 June 2018

7:30 AM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018

Wednesday, 6 June 2018

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 6 June 2018

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 6 June 2018

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 6 June 2018

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 6 June 2018

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 6 June 2018

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 6 June 2018

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 6 June 2018