NWP Prediction at ESRL/GSD: Overview of Global Modeling Development Activities

The Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) is currently under development in the US. The high-stake goals of the NWS NGGPS require not only to generate a much-advanced global modeling system with state-of-the-art nonhydrostatic dynamics, physics and data assimilation, but also to foster much broader involvement of other labs and the academic community. While the initial objective for NGGPS was the selection of a dynamic core - in 2016 NOAA chose the FV3 dynamical core as a basis for its future global modeling system - other tasks are now of high priority. Among those, the selection of the advanced physics parameterizations and the involvement of the community may be the most challenging. The physics packages developed at ESRL include a unified scale-aware parameterization of subgrid cloudiness feedback to radiation (coupled PBL, microphysics, radiation, shallow convection) and the Grell-Freitas scale and aerosol aware convective parameterization. ESRL also has been developing improved coupled (using the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability -- NUOPC software) and inline chemistry/aerosol techniques for both regional and global models. Here we present a summary of ESRL/GSD’s global modeling efforts. We will include examples of how this work is successfully applied to global models by ESRL/GSD for short and medium range NWP, air quality forecasting, and at subseasonal time scales. Important community contributions come from the Global Model Test Bed (GMTB), the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC), and NOAA’s Environmental Software Infrastructure and Interoperability (NESII) group.