25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

Program Chair: Christopher McCray , McGill Univ.

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Sunday, 3 June 2018

5:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 3 June 2018


Registration Opens
Location: 2nd Floor Lobby (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Monday, 4 June 2018

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 4 June 2018


Registration Open
Location: 2nd Floor Lobby (Grand Hyatt Denver)

8:15 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 4 June 2018

Recording files available
Session 1B
Model Center Overviews I
Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Christopher D. McCray, McGill University; Bruce Telfeyan, AMS
8:15 AM
Welcoming Remarks
Christopher McCray, McGill Univ., Montreal, QC, Canada
8:30 AM
1B.1
Planned Upgrades to the NCEP Operational Modeling Suite
William Lapenta, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD
9:00 AM
1B.2
Update on the US Navy's Earth System Prediction Capability Effort
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and N. P. Barton, C. Bishop, D. P. Eleuterio, M. Flatau, S. Frolov, P. Hogan, G. Jacobs, M. A. Janiga, J. G. McLay, E. J. Metzger, J. G. Richman, J. Ridout, E. Rogers, C. D. Rowley, B. Ruston, and T. R. Whitcomb
9:15 AM
1B.3
Overview of the Navy's Coupled Mesoscale Modeling System and Future Plans
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen, C. M. Amerault, D. D. Flagg, S. Gabersek, T. Haack, R. M. Hodur, T. R. Holt, X. Hong, Q. Jiang, H. Jin, Y. Jin, W. A. Komaromi, J. R. Moskaitis, J. Nachamkin, P. A. Reinecke, D. R. Ryglicki, J. Schmidt, D. P. Tyndall, S. Wang, and L. Xu
9:30 AM
1B.4
US Air Force Modeling Capability at the 557th Weather Wing
Robert Tournay, 16th Weather Squadron, Offutt AFB, NE
9:45 AM
1B.5
Numerical Weather Prediction at the Met Office: Recent Progress and Future Direction
Kirsty Hanley, Met Office, Reading, United Kingdom; and B. Macpherson, W. Tennant, and D. Walters

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 4 June 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Colorado Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Monday, 4 June 2018

Recording files available
Session 2B
Local Application of Regional Models and Regional Climate Downscaling
Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA; Evan Kuchera, USAF 16th Weather Squadron
10:30 AM
2B.1
Rapid Update Convective Scale NWP Systems for Australia
Peter Steinle, BoM, Docklands, Australia; and X. Sun, S. J. Rennie, M. Krysta, and S. Cooper
11:00 AM
2B.3
11:30 AM
2B.5
Predictability of Snow Multi-Bands in the Cyclone Comma Head Using a 40-Member WRF Ensemble
Ryan Connelly, Stony Brook University - SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 4 June 2018


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 4 June 2018

Recording files available
Session 3B
Updates on Global and Mesoscale Models
Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Georg A. Grell, ESRL; Rebecca Adams-Selin, NOAA
1:30 PM
3B.1
Ongoing Upgrades to NOAA's Real Time Mesoscale Analysis System
Jacob R. Carley, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. Pondeca, S. Levine, R. Yang, Y. Lin, S. Flampouris, J. Whiting, S. Melchior, A. M. Gibbs, R. J. Purser, B. T. Blake, G. Manikin, B. Yang, E. Colón, X. Zhang, M. T. Morris, M. Pyle, E. Rogers, and J. C. Derber
1:45 PM
3B.2
NOAA's Next-Generation, Modern-Era Global Reanalysis and Reforecast
Thomas M. Hamill, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Whitaker and V. Tallapragada
2:00 PM
3B.3
Assimilation of Polar Orbiter and Geostationary Satellite Data in the Rap and HRRR Models: Recent Upgrades and Ongoing Work with New Observation Sets.
Haidao Lin, CIRA/Colorado State Univ. and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and S. S. Weygandt, A. Back, M. Hu, J. M. Brown, and C. R. Alexander
2:15 PM
3B.4
A New Operational Global Ensemble from the United States Air Force
Evan Kuchera, USAF 16th Weather Squadron, Offutt Air Force Base, NE
2:30 PM
3B.5
Overview of the Navy's Next-Generation NEPTUNE Modeling System
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Reinecke, K. C. Viner, D. D. Flagg, S. Gabersek, M. Martini, J. Michalakes, D. R. Ryglicki, and F. X. Giraldo
2:45 PM
3B.6
3:00 PM
3B.7
MPAS for Operational Turbulence Forecasts and Other Commercial Applications
John Wong, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, Andover, MA; and T. Hutchinson, J. K. Williams, and C. Meyer

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 4 June 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Colorado Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Monday, 4 June 2018

Recording files available
Session 4B
New or Improved Parameterizations I
Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Jared A. Lee, NCAR; Greg Thompson, NCAR
4:00 PM
4B.1
4:15 PM
4B.2
Simulating Vortex-SE Weather Events with a Scale-Adaptive PBL Scheme in the HRRR Model at Varying Resolutions
Jason M. English, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO; and D. D. Turner, J. B. Olson, and J. S. Kenyon
4:45 PM
4B.4
Improving Forecasts of Low-Level Winds Induced by Thermal Troughs in the Columbia River Basin
Joseph B. Olson, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. Kenyon, J. M. Brown, M. Toy, K. Lantz, R. M. Banta, L. Bianco, Y. Pichugina, J. Sharp, M. T. Stoelinga, C. Long, M. B. Smith, R. Pierce, K. Holub, and M. Marquis
5:15 PM
4B.6
Gravity Wave Physics and Dynamics in the FV3-based Atmosphere Models Extended into the Mesosphere
Valery A. Yudin, Colorado Univ., Boulder, CO; and R. A. Akmaev, J. C. Alpert, T. J. Fuller-Rowell, and S. I. Karol

6:00 PM-8:00 PM: Monday, 4 June 2018


Ice Breaker Reception
Location: Aspen Ballroom (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Tuesday, 5 June 2018

7:30 AM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018


Registration Open
Location: 2nd Floor Lobby (Grand Hyatt Denver)

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018

Recording files available
Session 5B
NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System
Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: John S. Kain, NOAA; Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University
8:00 AM
5B.1
Building NOAA's Next Generation Global Prediction System
Ivanka Stajner, NOAA/NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and F. Toepfer, V. Tallapragada, S. Warren, H. L. Tolman, N. P. Kurkowski, and T. L. Schneider
8:45 AM
5B.4
Evaluation of FV3 Convection-Allowing Forecasts over CONUS using Different Physics Schemes during the 2018 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment
Chunxi Zhang, CAPS, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, T. A. Supinie, N. Snook, K. A. Brewster, F. Kong, K. Thomas, L. Harris, and S. J. Lin
9:00 AM
5B.5
Plans to Evolve HWRF to a Regional FV3-based Hurricane Model within NOAA’s Unified Forecasting Strategy
Nicole P. Kurkowski, NWS, Silver Spring, MD; and E. Rappaport, F. Toepfer, F. Marks, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, V. Tallapragada, M. DeMaria, I. Stajner, and T. L. Schneider
9:15 AM
5B.6
Facilitating Development of Physical Parameterizations for NOAA's Unified Forecast System
Ligia Bernardet, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, NOAA/GSD and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Firl, J. S. Kain, V. Tallapragada, F. Toepfer, and B. Gross
9:30 AM
5B.7
Impact of Stochastic Physics in FV3-GEFS—Preliminary Results
Walter Kolczynski Jr., NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC via IMSG, College Park, MD; and B. Fu, P. Pegion, Y. Zhu, and D. Hou

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Colorado Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018

Recording files available
Session 6B
Model Center Overviews II
Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Bruce Telfeyan, AMS; Christopher D. McCray, McGill University
10:30 AM
6B.1
ECMWF: Progress and Plans (Invited Presentation)
Andrew Brown, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom
11:00 AM
6B.2
NWP Prediction at ESRL/GSD: Overview of Global Modeling Development Activities
Georg A. Grell, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and L. Bernardet, S. Sun, R. Ahmadov, J. M. Brown, C. DeLuca, and M. W. Govett
11:15 AM
6B.3
11:30 AM
6B.4
Numerical Weather Prediction at IBM/The Weather Company: Overview of a Global Rapidly-Updating Forecast System
Todd Hutchinson, The Weather Company, Andover, MA; and B. A. Wilt, J. Wong, and J. P. Cipriani

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018


Lunch Break

12:15 PM-1:15 PM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018


NOAA Modeling Development Forum
Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Moderator: Hendrik L. Tolman, NOAA/NWS/NCEP

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018

Recording files available
Session 7B
Data Assimilation Development and Testing
Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Todd Hutchinson, The Weather Company; Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL
1:30 PM
7B.1
Data Assimilation Development and Testing for the Initial Version of the FV3-GFS
Daryl T. Kleist, NCEP, College Park, MD; and R. B. Mahajan, C. Thomas, J. C. Derber, R. Treadon, A. Collard, and J. Whitaker
1:45 PM
7B.2
Data Assimilation Development for the 2019 Operational FV3-GFS
Catherine Thomas, IMSG, College Park, MD; and R. Mahajan, D. T. Kleist, R. Treadon, and J. S. Whitaker
2:00 PM
7B.3
Development of a GSI-based Global Data Assimilation System for the Model for Prediction Across Scales
James P. Cipriani, The Weather Company, Yorktown Heights, NY; and B. A. Wilt, T. Hutchinson, and J. Wong
2:15 PM
7B.4
Building Functional Similar Testing System for Community Researchers to Contribute Operational Storm-Scale Data Assimilation
Ming Hu, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and G. Ge, C. Zhou, C. R. Alexander, and S. Weygandt
2:30 PM
7B.5
Further Improvements of Radial Wind Assimilation in the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model
Guoqing Ge, CIRES and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and M. Hu, C. Zhou, J. Beck, S. Weygandt, and C. Alexander
2:45 PM
7B.6
Hybrid Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation for Cloud Hydrometeors in GSI
Therese T. Ladwig, NOAA/ESRL/GSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. Hu, C. R. Alexander, S. S. Weygandt, D. C. Dowell, S. G. Benjamin, and J. M. Brown
3:15 PM
7B.8
Storm-Scale Satellite Data Assimilation into the WoF GSI-EnKF System: Recent Results and Future Plans
Swapan Mallick, CIMMS, NOAA/ NSSL, Norman, OK; and T. A. Jones, K. H. Knopfmeier, D. C. Dowell, X. Wang, P. Skinner, and P. Minnis

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Aspen Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Tuesday, 5 June 2018


Formal Poster Viewing
Location: Aspen Ballroom (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Joint Poster Session 1
WAF/NWP Poster Session I
Location: Aspen Ballroom (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Hosts: (Joint between the 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting; and the 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction )
Chair: Christopher D. McCray, McGill University
1
The Occurrences of Significant Tornadoes Across the High Plains Under Favorable Synoptic Conditions
Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University, Denver, CO; and T. K. Croan

2
The Effects of Differential Friction on PBL Kinematics and Possible Influences on Tornadoes and CI
Timothy A. Coleman, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and A. M. Weigel

3
Climatology of High-Impact Supercells over Northeastern Wyoming and Western South Dakota
Keith D. Sherburn, NOAA/NWS, Rapid City, SD; and M. J. Bunkers

5
A Recent Climatological Look at Tornado Events Relative to Sunset
Erik R. Nielsen, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and G. R. Herman, J. M. Peters, and R. S. Schumacher

6
Dynamical Insights into Extreme Short-Term Precipitation Associated with Supercells and Mesovortices
Erik R. Nielsen, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

7
Research on Atmospheric Conditions supporting MCSs over East China in Summer
Liu Zhang, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

8
Analysis of Back-Building of a Simulated MCS in an Environment with a Low Level Stable Layer
Stacey M. Hitchcock, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher

10
Analysis of Convectively Generated Gravity Waves in the 14-15 July 2015 Mesoscale Convective System During PECAN
Faith P. Groff, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher and R. Adams-Selin

11
Evaluation of HAILCAST during NOAA/Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments using Multiple Verification Metrics
Rebecca Adams-Selin, NOAA; and A. Clark, C. Melick, S. R. Dembek, I. L. Jirak, and C. Ziegler

12
Impact of Increased Resolution on Storm-Scale Ensemble Performance in the US Southeast
John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin

14
Enhancing Storm-Scale 1-h Probabilistic Low-Level Rotation Forecasts through Machine Learning
Montgomery L. Flora, University of Oklahoma, CIMMS, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin, A. McGovern, and P. S. Skinner

15
Convection-Allowing Ensemble Forecasts Using the Model for Prediction across Scales
Ryan A. Sobash, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. S. Schwartz

16
How Well Can a Climate Model Simulate an Extreme Precipitation Event: a Case Study using Transpose-AMIP Experiment
Jian LI, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; and H. Chen

17
18
The Impact of Microphysics Schemes in Convection-Allowing Simulations of Banded Snowfall
Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University, Mt. Pleasant, MI; and P. N. Schumacher, J. T. Radford, and G. M. Lackmann

20
The Weather Prediction Center Day 8-10 Forecast Experiment: Development and Utilization of Forecast Tools
William S. Lamberson, IMSG, College Park, MD; and M. J. Bodner, S. Ganetis, J. Kastman, and J. A. Nelson Jr.

22
Verification of Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones.
Nicholas Leonardo, Stony Brook University - SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle

23
Using the Big Weather Web Ensemble to Examine Systemic Biases in WRF-model Parameterizations
Russ S. Schumacher, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. Tyle

Handout (62.2 MB)

24
Using SURFRAD and CERES Datasets to Evaluate Physics Parameterizations
Michelle Harrold, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Zhang, J. K. Wolff, L. Bernardet, and J. K. Henderson

25
The Model Evaluation Tools (MET): Recent Additions and Enhancements
John E. Halley Gotway, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. L. Jensen, R. Bullock, H. Soh, and J. Prestopnik

26
Development of an Adaptive Ensemble Technique
Tyler J. Wixtrom, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and B. C. Ancell

27
Dependence of Model Performance on Vertical Resolution for Operational Prediction
Haixia Mei, Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Science, Nanjing, China; and X. Z. Liang, M. Zeng, C. Sun, Y. Li, and Q. Li

Wednesday, 6 June 2018

7:30 AM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 6 June 2018


Registration Open
Location: 2nd Floor Lobby (Grand Hyatt Denver)

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 6 June 2018

Recording files available
Session 8B
New Data Assimilation Techniques
Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: James P. Cipriani, The Weather Company; Catherine Thomas, IMSG
8:30 AM
8B.3
NRL Four-dimensional Variational Radar Data Assimilation for Improved Near-term and Short-term Storm Prediction
Qingyun Zhao, NRL, Monterey, CA; and T. R. Holt, P. Harasti, C. M. Amerault, L. Xu, N. Baker, J. Doyle, Y. Jin, H. Jin, M. Frost, Q. Xu, H. J. Chen, B. S. Chua, and D. Geiszler
9:00 AM
8B.5
Correcting Storm Displacement Errors in Ensembles Using the Feature Alignment Technique (FAT)
Derek R. Stratman, OU/CIMMS and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin and L. J. Wicker
9:15 AM
8B.6
Nonlinear Bias Correction for Satellite Data Assimilation
Jason Otkin, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and R. Potthast and A. Lawless
9:30 AM
8B.7
Radio Occultation Observation Operators for Data Assimilation
Razvan Stefanescu, Spire Global, Inc., Boulder, CO; and M. Gorbunov, V. Irisov, D. Zupanski, R. McKeown, T. Brown, C. Holt, and A. E. MacDonald
9:45 AM
8B.8

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 6 June 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Colorado Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Wednesday, 6 June 2018

Recording files available
Session 9B
New or Improved Parameterizations II
Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Jason M. English, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder; Martin A. Baxter, Central Michigan University
10:30 AM
9B.1
The NOAA/EMC Vision for the Parameterization of Atmospheric Physical Processes in the Emerging National Unified Forecast System
John S. Kain, NOAA, College Park, MD; and S. Moorthi, V. Tallapragada, L. R. Bernardet, C. Bretherton, J. Doyle, and G. Grell
10:45 AM
9B.2
Impacts of Background Albedo Dataset on WRF Model Simulations
Jared A. Lee, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and M. Barlage and G. Thompson
11:00 AM
9B.3
Implementation and Evaluation of MG Microphysics in FV3GFS
Anning Cheng, NOAA, College Park, MD; and S. Moorthi, Y. T. Hou, A. Gettelman, H. Morrison, F. Yang, J. Wang, R. Sun, D. Barahona, S. Lu, J. Kain, and V. Tallapragada

Handout (896.0 kB)

11:15 AM
9B.4
Assessing the Impact of Stochastic Cloud Microphysics in High-Resolution Models Using GOES-16 Infrared Brightness Temperatures
Jason Otkin, Univ. of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI; and S. M. Griffin, G. Thompson, J. Berner, F. Kong, and M. E. Frediani
11:45 AM
9B.6

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 6 June 2018


Lunch Break

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 6 June 2018

Recording files available
Session 10B
Forecast Verification Methods and Performance I
Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Jacob R. Carley, NOAA/NCEP/EMC; Burkely T. Gallo, CIMMS/NSSL
1:30 PM
10B.1
To Mme or Not to Mme, That's the Question
Hendrik L. Tolman, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD
1:45 PM
10B.2
2:00 PM
10B.3
Assessing the Spread/Error Relationship for East Coast Winter Cyclones
Taylor S Mandelbaum, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and T. Alcott and B. A. Colle
2:15 PM
10B.4
3:00 PM
10B.7
An Evaluation of the Grell-Freitas Cumulus Scheme in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting System
Kathryn M. Newman, NCAR and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Biswas, E. A. Kalina, E. Grell, L. Bernardet, G. Grell, L. Carson, and J. Frimel

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 6 June 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Colorado Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Wednesday, 6 June 2018

Recording files available
Session 11B
New Ensemble and Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques I
Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL; James I. Belanger, The Weather Company
4:15 PM
11B.2
The Performance of NCEP GEFS in Past 20 Years
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, CO; and Y. Luo, B. Cui, and J. Peng
4:45 PM
11B.4
Calibration of 2-m Temperature Forecasts using the Bayesian Processor of Ensemble (BPE)
Yi Wang, GSD, Boulder, CO; and Z. Toth, M. S. Antolik, G. J. Layne, M. A. Petty, C. Buxton, M. Peña, and Y. Zhu
5:00 PM
11B.5
Improving Medium-Range Severe Weather Forecasting with Random Forests
Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher
5:15 PM
11B.6
Using TIGGE Data to Analyze Features of Time Series of Forecast Uncertainty
Justin G. McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. H. Bishop, D. Hodyss, and E. A. Satterfield

Thursday, 7 June 2018

7:30 AM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 7 June 2018


Registration Open
Location: 2nd Floor Lobby (Grand Hyatt Denver)

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 7 June 2018

Recording files available
Session 12B
Improving Model Performance and Efficiency I
Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Jacob R. Carley, NOAA/NCEP/EMC; Michael J. Kavulich Jr., NCAR
8:30 AM
12B.2
Rapid Cycling in the Last Frontier: Improving Model Initialization over Alaska
Trevor Alcott, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and M. Hu, D. C. Dowell, and C. R. Alexander
8:45 AM
12B.3
Testing the Impact of Additional Vertical Levels for the 3km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh
Eric P. James, CIRES, Univ. of Colorado Boulder, and NOAA/ESRL/GSD, Boulder, CO; and C. R. Alexander and J. M. Brown
9:15 AM
12B.5
Intercomparison of Seven Planetary Layer/Surface Layer Physics Schemes over Complex Terrain for Battlefield Situational Awareness Applications
Richard S. Penc, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, WSMR, NM; and J. A. Smith, J. W. Raby, R. E. Dumais Jr., B. P. Reen, and L. Dawson

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 7 June 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Colorado Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

10:30 AM-12:00 PM: Thursday, 7 June 2018

Recording files available
Session 13B
Improving Model Performance and Efficiency II
Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Alicia M. Bentley, SUNY; Justin McLay, NRL
10:30 AM
13B.1
10:45 AM
13B.2
Testing Physical Parameterization Development in a Single-column Model Framework for Operational NWP
Grant J. Firl, NCAR, and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and L. Xue, L. Bernardet, and D. Heinzeller
11:00 AM
13B.3
11:15 AM
13B.4
Verification of FV3 Forecasts Using the Model Evaluation for Research Innovation Transition (MERIT) Testing Framework
Tracy J. Hertneky, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Ketefian, J. Beck, I. Jankov, J. Wolff, C. Williams, M. Harrold, and L. Blank
11:30 AM
13B.5
Enhancing Community Collaborations through NWP Software Containers
Michael J. Kavulich Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. H. Gotway, M. Harrold, J. K. Wolff, K. Fossell, and J. Exby
11:45 AM
13B.6
Statistical Design of Experiments in Numerical Weather Prediction: Some Emerging Results
Jeffrey A. Smith, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and R. S. Penc and J. W. Raby

12:00 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 7 June 2018


Lunch Break
Location: Colorado Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 7 June 2018

Recording files available
Session 14B
New Ensemble and Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques at the Hazardous Weather Testbed
Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Christopher J. Melick, 557th Weather Wing; Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL
1:30 PM
14B.1
Inter-model Storm-scale Comparisons from the 2017 HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment
Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS, and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Carley, A. Clark, L. J. Wicker, P. S. Skinner, A. E. Reinhart, and J. S. Kain
1:45 PM
14B.2
2:00 PM
14B.3
Practical Predictability of Supercells: Exploring Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Initial Condition Spread
Montgomery L. Flora, University of Oklahoma, CIMMS, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin and L. J. Wicker
2:45 PM
14B.6
Exploring the Optimal Configuration of the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast System
Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, B. Roberts, B. T. Gallo, and S. J. Weiss
3:00 PM
14B.7
3:15 PM
14B.8
The 2018 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment
Adam Clark, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, B. Gallo, S. J. Weiss, L. J. Wicker, S. R. Dembek, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. Thomas, K. H. Knopfmeier, G. J. Creager, K. A. Brewster, Y. Jung, B. Roberts, G. Romine, C. Alexander, X. Wang, S. M. Willington, Y. Wang, A. T. Johnson, L. M. Harris, M. J. Morin, S. J. Lin, R. M. Hepper, T. A. Supinie, and A. R. Dean

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 7 June 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Aspen Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

4:00 PM-5:30 PM: Thursday, 7 June 2018


Formal Poster Viewing
Location: Aspen Ballroom (Grand Hyatt Denver)

Joint Poster Session 2
WAF/NWP Poster Session II
Location: Aspen Ballroom (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Hosts: (Joint between the 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction; and the 29th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting )
Chair: Christopher D. McCray, McGill University
29
The Use of Integrated Enstrophy in Blocking and Flow Regime Transition for Operational Forecasting
Joshua Kastman, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and S. A. Ganetis, W. S. Lamberson, M. J. Bodner, P. S. Market, and A. R. Lupo

30
Developing a Probabilistic Heavy-Rainfall Guidance Forecast Model for Great Lakes Cities
Cory Rothstein, University of Wisconsin Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and P. Roebber

31
Influences of Coastal Geometry and Orography on Lake- and Sea-Effect Precipitation
W. James Steenburgh, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and L. Campbell, P. G. Veals, T. West, T. M. Gowan, and S. Nakai

32
Risk, Information, and Vulnerability for Evolving Tornado Threats: Examining the 22 January 2017 EF-3 Tornadoes in Adel and Albany, Georgia
Julie L. Demuth, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. Lazrus, J. Henderson, J. Vickery, R. E. Morss, K. D. Ash, K. M. Anderson, and L. Palen

33
Synoptic- and Meso-Scale Weather Patterns associated with the Rapid Glacier Loss Across the Semi-Arid Chilean Andes
Sam Ng, Metropolitan State University, Denver, CO; and J. Janke, A. Bellisario, and S. Reichlin

34
The Role of the North Pacific Jet in Two West Coast Atmospheric River Events during February 2017
Eli Turasky, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and A. C. Winters, L. F. Bosart, and D. Keyser

35
An Examination of the 30 January 2018 Long Island Snowfall Forecast Bust
Ryan Connelly, Stony Brook University - SUNY, Stony Brook, NY; and B. A. Colle and K. Fryer

36
High-resolution WRF Forecasts of Mid-21st Century Urban Extreme Heat Events
David E. Jahn, Iowa State University, Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr., Y. Zhou, K. Cetin, and E. Jahani

37
The 22-26 December 2013 Caribbean Rainstorm
Marshall Pfahler, Univ. at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

38
Using Machine Learning to Predict Road Temperatures
Shawn Handler, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and H. D. Reeves

39
Observation Informed Generalized Hybrid Error Covariance Models
Elizabeth A. Satterfield, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. Hodyss, D. D. Kuhl, and C. H. Bishop

40
Improving the Land Surface Forecast in Navy’s Global Atmospheric Model
Ming Liu, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. Langland, M. Martini, and K. C. Viner

41
Short-Term Wind Prediction over Dallas Fort Worth (DFW) Urban Network
Chandrasekar Radhakrishnan, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and C. V. Chandra

42
Evaluating the WRF-Hydro Modeling System in Alaska
Nicholas J. Elmer, Univ. of Alabama, Huntsville, AL; and A. L. Molthan and J. R. Mecikalski

43
Influence of Prescribed Rocky Mountain Springtime Snowpack on Evolution of Summertime Precipitation in the Great Plains
Matthew A. Campbell, SUNY, Albany, NY; and C. R. Ferguson, D. A. Burrows, and L. F. Bosart

44
Improved Forecasts of Cold Pools in Complex Terrain from WFIP2
Jaymes Kenyon, NOAA/ESRL and CIRES, Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, M. Toy, J. M. Brown, W. M. Angevine, M. Marquis, C. Draxl, Y. Pichugina, A. Choukulkar, T. A. Bonin, R. Banta, L. Bianco, I. V. Djalalova, K. McCaffrey, J. M. Wilczak, K. Lantz, C. N. Long, S. Redfern, J. Sharp, J. McCaa, M. T. Stoelinga, E. P. Grimit, and L. K. Berg

45
Study on Reconstructing Tropical Cyclone Wind Field By the Generalized Additive Model
Jian Liang, Guangdong Meteorological Bureau, Guangzhou, China; and S. Tang, C. Qian, L. Lin, and B. Huang

46
A Comparison of NAM CONUS Nest Failures and Successes to Regional 3-Km FV3 Runs with Different Microphysics Schemes.
Eric Aligo, EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA and I.M. Systems Group, Inc., College Park, MD

Handout (2.8 MB)

47
Predictability Experiments with a Non-Hydrostatic Global Model over a Cubed Sphere Grid
Song-You Hong, Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South)

48
Development of a Subgrid-Scale Orographic Drag Parameterization Suite for the NOAA Rap/HRRR Atmospheric Model
Michael D. Toy, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. B. Olson, T. Smirnova, J. S. Kenyon, J. M. Brown, and G. Grell

49
Making Forecasts Better-Community Infrastructure for Facilitating Improvement and Testing of Physical Parameterizations
Dom Heinzeller, NOAA/ESRL/GSD, and Univ. of Colorado/CIRES, and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and L. Bernardet, G. J. Firl, L. Carson, C. W. Harrop, P. A. Jimenez, G. Ketefian, J. Schramm, D. Stark, L. Xue, M. Zhang, and D. Gill

Handout (5.4 MB)

50
Developing the MYNN-Eddy Diffusivity/Mass-Flux PBL Scheme to Improve Non-Local Mixing Across the Greyzone
Joseph B. Olson, CIRES, Boulder, CO; and J. Kenyon, W. M. Angevine, G. Grell, J. M. Brown, and K. Suselj

51
Applying a General Nonlinear Transformation to the Analysis of Surface Visibility and Cloud Ceiling Height
Runhua Yang, IMSG and NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and R. J. Purser, J. R. Carley, M. Pondeca, Y. Zhu, and W. S. Wu

52
High Resolution Weather Forecast of CWB-GFS Nested with NCEP-RSM
Ying-Ju Chen, CWB, Taipei, Taiwan; and H. M. H. Juang and J. H. Chen

Handout (1.5 MB)

53
Scientific and Technical Documentation for Parameterizations in the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP)
Man Zhang, CU/CIRES at NOAA Global Systems Division and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and G. J. Firl, L. Bernardet, and V. Kunkel

Friday, 8 June 2018

7:30 AM-12:30 PM: Friday, 8 June 2018


Registration Open
Location: 2nd Floor Lobby (Grand Hyatt Denver)

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 8 June 2018

Recording files available
Session 15B
New Ensemble and Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques II
Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: James I. Belanger, The Weather Company; Christopher Melick, 557th Weather Wing
8:00 AM
15B.1
Evaluating the NCAR Ensemble’s Initialization Approach
Craig S. Schwartz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. S. Romine, R. A. Sobash, K. R. Fossell, and M. Wong
8:15 AM
15B.2
8:30 AM
15B.3
Forecasting and Monitoring Intense Thunderstorms in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region: Spring 2018 Forecasting Experiment
Jonathan L. Case, ENSCO, Inc., Huntsville, AL; and P. N. Gatlin, J. Srikishen, J. Knickerbocker, J. R. Bell, R. E. Allen, P. J. Meyer, D. J. Cecil, and W. A. Petersen
8:45 AM
15B.4
Km-scale Ensemble Simulations over Singapore
Aurore Porson, Met Office, Reading, United Kingdom; and D. Boyd, S. Hagelin, and J. C. F. Lo

9:00 AM
15B.5
Land-Surface Parameter and State Perturbations in the Global Ensemble Forecast System
Maria Gehne, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill, G. Bates, P. Pegion, and W. Kolczynski Jr.
9:15 AM
15B.6
Uncertainty2: Stochastic Perturbations in a Convective-Scale Ensemble
John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf and J. Kain
9:30 AM
15B.7
Representing Uncertainties in the NOAA/NCEP Next Generation Global Prediction System Associated with Unresolved Convection
Lisa K Bengtsson, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. W. Bao, P. Pegion, and J. S. Whitaker

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 8 June 2018


Coffee Break
Location: Colorado Foyer (Grand Hyatt Denver)

10:30 AM-12:30 PM: Friday, 8 June 2018

Recording files available
Session 16B
Forecast Verification Methods and Performance II
Location: Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs: Louisa B. Nance, NCAR; Jonathan L. Case, ENSCO, Inc.
10:45 AM
16B.2
Unifying Verification with MET+: An Update
Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO; and J. Levit, B. Strong, I. Stajner, G. Manikin, and M. Row
11:00 AM
16B.3
Modification of the Unified Post Processor (UPP) Version 3 to Achieve Improved Accuracy for Model Verification
John W. Raby, U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM; and B. P. Reen and J. A. Smith
11:15 AM
16B.4
The Usefulness of High-Resolution Observational Data for Verification within the United States Air Force
Christopher J. Melick, 557th Weather Wing, Offutt AFB, NE; and W. T. Sedlacek and R. J. Craig
11:30 AM
16B.5
Evaluating FV3 Performance during the Spring Severe Convection Season
Burkely T. Gallo, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and A. Clark, L. J. Wicker, C. K. Potvin, I. L. Jirak, Y. Wang, S. R. Dembek, S. J. Weiss, and P. L. Heinselman
11:45 AM
16B.6
Verification of Convective Environment Forecasts from the NAM Parent and CONUS Nest within SPC Outlook Areas
Robert M. Hepper, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma and NOAA/NWS/SPC, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak

12:30 PM-12:40 PM: Friday, 8 June 2018


Conference Adjourns