Session 15B New Ensemble and Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques II

Friday, 8 June 2018: 8:00 AM-10:00 AM
Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs:
James I. Belanger, The Weather Company, Andover, MA and Christopher Melick, 557th Weather Wing, 16th Weather Squadron, Offutt AFB, NE

Representing Uncertainty in NWP via Initial Conditions and Parameter Perturbations

Papers:
8:00 AM
15B.1
Evaluating the NCAR Ensemble’s Initialization Approach
Craig S. Schwartz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. S. Romine, R. A. Sobash, K. R. Fossell, and M. Wong
Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM
15B.2
Addressing Model Uncertainty through Stochastic Parameter Perturbations within the Thompson Microphysics Scheme as part of a High Resolution Rapid Refresh Ensemble
Jamie K. Wolff, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Thompson, I. Jankov, J. Beck, M. Harrold, M. J. Kavulich Jr., and L. Blank
Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM
15B.3
Forecasting and Monitoring Intense Thunderstorms in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region: Spring 2018 Forecasting Experiment
Jonathan L. Case, ENSCO, Inc., Huntsville, AL; and P. N. Gatlin, J. Srikishen, J. Knickerbocker, J. R. Bell, R. E. Allen, P. J. Meyer, D. J. Cecil, and W. A. Petersen
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.5 MB)

8:45 AM
15B.4
Km-scale Ensemble Simulations over Singapore
Aurore Porson, Met Office, Reading, United Kingdom; and D. Boyd, S. Hagelin, and J. C. F. Lo

9:00 AM
15B.5
Land-Surface Parameter and State Perturbations in the Global Ensemble Forecast System
Maria Gehne, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill, G. Bates, P. Pegion, and W. Kolczynski Jr.
Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM
15B.6
Uncertainty2: Stochastic Perturbations in a Convective-Scale Ensemble
John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf and J. Kain
Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM
15B.7
Representing Uncertainties in the NOAA/NCEP Next Generation Global Prediction System Associated with Unresolved Convection
Lisa K Bengtsson, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. W. Bao, P. Pegion, and J. S. Whitaker
Recorded Presentation

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