Session 15B New Ensemble and Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques II

Friday, 8 June 2018: 8:00 AM-10:00 AM
Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
James I. Belanger, The Weather Company, Andover, MA and Christopher Melick, 557th Weather Wing, 16th Weather Squadron, Offutt AFB, NE

Representing Uncertainty in NWP via Initial Conditions and Parameter Perturbations

8:00 AM
Evaluating the NCAR Ensemble’s Initialization Approach
Craig S. Schwartz, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. S. Romine, R. A. Sobash, K. R. Fossell, and M. Wong
8:15 AM
8:30 AM
Forecasting and Monitoring Intense Thunderstorms in the Hindu Kush Himalayan Region: Spring 2018 Forecasting Experiment
Jonathan L. Case, ENSCO, Inc., Huntsville, AL; and P. N. Gatlin, J. Srikishen, J. Knickerbocker, J. R. Bell, R. E. Allen, P. J. Meyer, D. J. Cecil, and W. A. Petersen
8:45 AM
Km-scale Ensemble Simulations over Singapore
Aurore Porson, Met Office, Reading, United Kingdom; and D. Boyd, S. Hagelin, and J. C. F. Lo

9:00 AM
Land-Surface Parameter and State Perturbations in the Global Ensemble Forecast System
Maria Gehne, ESRL, Boulder, CO; and T. M. Hamill, G. Bates, P. Pegion, and W. Kolczynski Jr.
9:15 AM
Uncertainty2: Stochastic Perturbations in a Convective-Scale Ensemble
John R. Lawson, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK; and N. Yussouf and J. Kain
9:30 AM
Representing Uncertainties in the NOAA/NCEP Next Generation Global Prediction System Associated with Unresolved Convection
Lisa K Bengtsson, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. W. Bao, P. Pegion, and J. S. Whitaker
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