Session 10B Forecast Verification Methods and Performance I

Wednesday, 6 June 2018: 1:30 PM-3:30 PM
Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs:
Jacob R. Carley, NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD and Burkely T. Gallo, CIMMS/NSSL, Norman, OK

Papers:
1:30 PM
10B.1
To Mme or Not to Mme, That's the Question
Hendrik L. Tolman, NOAA, Silver Spring, MD
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
10B.2
A New Method for the Estimation of Analysis and Forecast Error Variance
Zoltan Toth, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Feng and M. Peña
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
10B.3
Assessing the Spread/Error Relationship for East Coast Winter Cyclones
Taylor S Mandelbaum, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and T. Alcott and B. A. Colle
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
10B.4
Exploring a Practical Path to More Skilful Ensemble Forecasts
Mark J. Rodwell, ECMWF, Reading, United Kingdom
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
10B.5
Forecast Sensitivities of Mcs Stratiform Precipitation Shields to Changes in Horizontal Grid Spacing in WRF Simulations
Brian Joseph Squitieri, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr.
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
10B.6
Microphysical and Horizontal Grid Spacing Influences on WRF Forecasts of Stratiform Rain Regions and General Convective Morphology Evolution in Nocturnal MCSs
Jonathan E. Thielen, Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and W. A. Gallus Jr. and B. J. Squitieri
Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM
10B.7
An Evaluation of the Grell-Freitas Cumulus Scheme in the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting System
Kathryn M. Newman, NCAR and Developmental Testbed Center, Boulder, CO; and M. K. Biswas, E. A. Kalina, E. Grell, L. Bernardet, G. Grell, L. Carson, and J. Frimel
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
10B.8
A Comparison of the Impact of Using Downscaled and Convection-Permitting Analyses on Model Behavior
May Wong, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. S. Romine and C. Snyder
Recorded Presentation

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