Web-Based Visualization and Evaluation of Convection-Allowing Ensembles for Severe Weather Forecasting Applications

Since the mid-2000s, scientific advances and growing computer resources for numerical weather prediction (NWP) have opened the door to experimental, real-time convection-allowing model (CAM) ensemble forecast systems through which a broad range of successful forecasting applications have been demonstrated. Fully exploiting real-time CAM ensembles for operational applications has required the development of new data extraction, post-processing and visualization strategies. This work has helped prepare the National Weather Service (NWS) for practical usage of the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) system, which was implemented operationally in November 2017. Coinciding with the HREF’s operationalization, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) launched a more advanced web platform for viewing a broad range of CAM ensemble products, many of which exploit the convective-scale structures simulated explicitly in CAMs.

Building upon this web platform, an innovative CAM ensemble comparison, evaluation, and forecasting tool is being developed for the 2018 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Forecasting Experiment. The HWT viewer will display products from the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE), including the ability to evaluate and compare its various membership subsets, as well as providing a web interface for HWT SFE participants to draw polygon-based experimental forecasts while interacting with model guidance. The software framework and practical applications of this tool will be discussed, along with future plans for expanding its scope and capabilities.