Session 14B New Ensemble and Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques at the Hazardous Weather Testbed

Thursday, 7 June 2018: 1:30 PM-3:30 PM
Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Cochairs:
Christopher J. Melick, 557th Weather Wing, 16th Weather Squadron, Offutt AFB, NE and Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO

Papers:
1:30 PM
14B.1
Inter-model Storm-scale Comparisons from the 2017 HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment
Corey K. Potvin, CIMMS, and NOAA/OAR/NSSL, Norman, OK; and J. Carley, A. Clark, L. J. Wicker, P. S. Skinner, A. E. Reinhart, and J. S. Kain
Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM
14B.2
Ensemble Simulations of a Case from the 2017 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed using the Unified Model
Kirsty Hanley, Met Office, Reading, United Kingdom; and H. Lean
Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM
14B.3
Practical Predictability of Supercells: Exploring Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Initial Condition Spread
Montgomery L. Flora, University of Oklahoma, CIMMS, NSSL/NOAA, Norman, OK; and C. K. Potvin and L. J. Wicker
Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM
14B.4
Object-Based Probabilistic Forecasting of Severe Weather Hazards in the 2018 HWT Spring Experiment: A Multi-Variable Probabilistic Approach for Research and Operations.
Aaron Johnson, Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and X. Wang, A. Clark, and I. L. Jirak
Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM
14B.5
The Impact of Adding Mixed Physics to a Mixed Initial and Lateral Boundary Condition Ensemble Used for Convection Forecasts-Results from the 2016 and 2017 Community Leveraged Unified Ensembles
William A. Gallus Jr., Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA; and J. Halley Gotway, J. Wolff, and M. Harrold
Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM
14B.6
Exploring the Optimal Configuration of the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast System
Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/SPC, Norman, OK; and A. J. Clark, B. Roberts, B. T. Gallo, and S. J. Weiss
Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

3:00 PM
14B.7
Web-Based Visualization and Evaluation of Convection-Allowing Ensembles for Severe Weather Forecasting Applications
Brett Roberts, NSSL, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, A. J. Clark, and S. J. Weiss
Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM
14B.8
The 2018 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment
Adam Clark, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and I. L. Jirak, B. Gallo, S. J. Weiss, L. J. Wicker, S. R. Dembek, M. Xue, F. Kong, K. Thomas, K. H. Knopfmeier, G. J. Creager, K. A. Brewster, Y. Jung, B. Roberts, G. Romine, C. Alexander, X. Wang, S. M. Willington, Y. Wang, A. T. Johnson, L. M. Harris, M. J. Morin, S. J. Lin, R. M. Hepper, T. A. Supinie, and A. R. Dean
Recorded Presentation

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