11B.3 Application of Targeted Post-Processing to NCEP Global Ensemble Forecasts for Hurricane Irma'2017

Wednesday, 6 June 2018: 4:30 PM
Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Jun Du, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. Peng

Hurricane Irma is one of the high societal impact events in 2017 due to the eastward bias
in hurricane track forecasts from the operational models, which caused some unnecessary
mass evacuation alone the east coast of Florida. Similar to the other operational models,
most of the NCEP global ensemble members project the eastward track too. However, a few
members do predict the "correct" westward track few days ahead. Is it possible to pre-identify
those few "good" members from the rest? In this talk, we will apply the targeted post-processing
method to pre-select those few "good" members. Our result shows that it can cut the track
forecast error in half in the ensemble mean.
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