Session 11B New Ensemble and Probabilistic Forecasting Techniques I

Wednesday, 6 June 2018: 4:00 PM-5:30 PM
Colorado B (Grand Hyatt Denver)
Host: 25th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction
Tara L. Jensen, NCAR/RAL, Boulder, CO and James I. Belanger, The Weather Company, Andover, MA

Statistical-Dynamical Techniques in Probabilistic Forecasting and Uncertainty Quantification

4:15 PM
The Performance of NCEP GEFS in Past 20 Years
Yuejian Zhu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, CO; and Y. Luo, B. Cui, and J. Peng
4:45 PM
Calibration of 2-m Temperature Forecasts using the Bayesian Processor of Ensemble (BPE)
Yi Wang, GSD, Boulder, CO; and Z. Toth, M. S. Antolik, G. J. Layne, M. A. Petty, C. Buxton, M. Peña, and Y. Zhu
5:00 PM
Improving Medium-Range Severe Weather Forecasting with Random Forests
Gregory R. Herman, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and R. S. Schumacher
5:15 PM
Using TIGGE Data to Analyze Features of Time Series of Forecast Uncertainty
Justin G. McLay, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. H. Bishop, D. Hodyss, and E. A. Satterfield
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