Planned Upgrades to the NCEP Operational Modeling Suite

Both Nationally within the U.S. and internationally there is a growing awareness of the requirement to develop and deploy significantly enhanced numerical earth system prediction capabilities necessary to address evolving societal needs for natural disaster preparedness, adaptation to climate change, ensuring food security for growing planetary population, national security and defense as well as future economic prosperity. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational modeling suite at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) provides information on the future state of weather, short-term and long-term climate, ecosystems, the ocean, and thus significantly contribute to the decision making process for individuals through policy makers, and for sectors ranging from water resources to financial markets. In addition, the modeling systems directly support the NWS mission to provide weather, water, and climate data, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and enhancement of the national economy.

There are numerous strategic and technical factors that must be taken into account when planning the evolution of the production suite. The National Weather Service imperative to build a Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) is about building community resiliency in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather. Therefore, the foundational operational numerical guidance system must support the WRN initiative. Global modeling systems are now being run operationally at resolutions approaching 10km. Regional systems are running operationally at 3km and lower and are being applied to convective predictability and severe weather. Advanced data assimilation techniques are being applied on global and regional scales. Demands are building for skillful outlooks in the week 3 and 4 time frame that will require coupled atmosphere and ocean global systems executed in ensemble mode.

The presentation will provide a brief overview of the current production suite structure, forcing factors that will influence the future, and the plan for future development for the modeling and data assimilation systems. The paper will also discuss near-term plans for system upgrades required to support a Weather Ready Nation.