High-Resolution Simulation of Hurricane Patricia (2015)–Rapid Intensification

Hurricane Patricia (2015) was one of the most intense hurricanes in the history of the western hemisphere, reaching 180 kt and 879 mb at its peak intensity (Kimberlain et al. 2016). In particular, Patricia developed into a category-5 hurricane from a tropical storm in 24 h at a rate rarely observed. In this study, the rapid intensification (RI) of Patricia was examined using a 5-day, 1.33-km grid-spacing simulation with the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System – Tropical Cyclone (COAMPS-TC®) initialized at 0000 UTC 22 October, 36 h before the observed storm reached peak intensity. COAMPS-TC performed well for Patricia track forecasts and captured its RI to some extent (~70% of observed). The environmental analysis suggested that warm sea surface temperature and strong upper level divergence were conducive for Patricia’s rapid intensification. The high resolution simulation produced a small eye (13-18 km) during the RI, close to the size of the observed eye. A dry layer was present at low levels in the initial field north of the storm center. This layer might have played some role in preventing the simulated storm from reaching the observed intensity.