Tuesday, 17 April 2012: 2:00 PM
Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
This talk describes an algorithm for tracking and predicting convectively coupled equatorial waves and intraseasonal oscillations that is applicable in real time and that specifies details of the spatial structures of wave signals in outgoing longwave radiation anomaly data. Results are obtained by projecting unfiltered OLR data onto space time empirical orthogonal function patterns in OLR data filtered in the zonal wave number frequency domain. Signals are diagnosed in real time, then linear regression is applied to predict the signals. Skill will be demonstrated for signals in the MJO band extending beyond 30 days in some regions of the tropics. Example applications of the algorithm to high amplitude convective events during the DYNAMO observing periods will be shown, providing insight about the modes responsible for the events.
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