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Max Eaton Student Prize**

Sunday, 15 April 2012

4:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 15 April 2012


Session
Registration begins
Location: Champions Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Monday, 16 April 2012

7:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012


Session
Registration Continues Through Friday April 20
Location: Champions Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 16 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 1B
Historical Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones I
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Greg J. Holland, NCAR
  8:00 AM
  8:30 AM
Hurricane Andrew 20 years later: What have we learned?
Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Irving, TX; and K. Gilvary and J. Kestner

  8:45 AM
  9:00 AM
Global Tropical Cyclone Climatology using IBTrACS
Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC; and J. P. Kossin, K. R. Knapp, and P. A. Hennon

  9:15 AM
  9:30 AM
Inter-comparison of climatological TC winds and pressures in the Western North Pacific
Kenneth R. Knapp, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. A. Knaff and C. R. Sampson

  9:45 AM
Shifts in Typhoon Tracks over the western North Pacific during the 20th century based on the recovery of historical data
Hisayuki Kubota, Research Institute for Global Change/ Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and J. C. L. Chan, J. Matsumoto, and E. Ginn

Recording files available
Session 1C
Tropical Cyclone Genesis I
Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Paul Reasor, NOAA/AOML/HRD
  8:15 AM
Planetary Vorticity Effects on Cyclogenesis
Michael G. McGauley, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

  8:30 AM
Global Omega Equation: Its Derivation and Use in Tropical Cyclogenesis
John F. Dostalek, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO; and W. H. Schubert and M. DeMaria

  8:45 AM
The importance of low deformation vorticity in tropical cyclone formation
Kevin J. Tory, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and R. A. Dare, N. E. Davidson, J. L. McBride, and S. Chand

  9:00 AM
Tropical Cyclogenesis and Vertical Shear in a Moist Boussinesq Model
Leslie M. Smith, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and Q. Deng and A. J. Majda

  9:15 AM
**The Effects of Gap Wind Induced Vorticity on Tropical Cyclogenesis**
Heather M. Holbach, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and M. A. Bourassa

  9:30 AM
Streamwise Evolution of African Easterly Waves
Anantha Aiyyer, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and M. Diaz

  9:45 AM
What Controls the Decadal Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific?
Jinhua Yu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Techonology, Nanjing, China; and Y. Wang

Recording files available
Session 1D
Tropical Cyclones, Land Interaction, and Landfall I
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Robbie Berg, NOAA
  8:00 AM
Observed Near-Surface Wind Flow Characteristics of Gulf Coast Hurricanes: 2004-2008
Ian M. Giammanco, Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, Richburg, SC; and J. A. Balderrama, J. L. Schroeder, F. J. Masters, and P. J. Vickery

  8:15 AM
Mapping of Low-Level Hurricane Winds in Hurricane Rita by integrating Fine-Scale Radar and Tower Data
Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and K. A. Kosiba, F. Masters, and P. Robinson

  8:30 AM
Examination of the coastal transition zone of Hurricane Frances (2004)
Brian D. Hirth, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder

  9:00 AM
Open terrain gust factors in landfalling hurricanes based on mobile tower observations
Juan-Antonio Balderrama, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and F. Masters and C. Miller

  9:15 AM
Fine-scale Dual-Doppler analysis of the boundary layer in Hurricane Frances (2004)
Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman and P. Robinson

  9:30 AM
Structure of mesovortices in Hurricane Ike (2008) derived from dual-Doppler analyses from ground-based radars
Stephanie Mullins, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and K. Knupp

  9:45 AM
Mesoscale analysis of a concentrated heavy rain event using an adaptable mesonet during the landfall of Tropical Storm Ida (2009)
Kevin R. Knupp, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and P. Ray, S. K. Kimball, and J. L. Schroeder

8:00 AM-10:15 AM: Monday, 16 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 1A
Tropical Cyclone Concentric Eyewalls and Replacement
Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Christopher M. Rozoff, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin
  8:00 AM
On the dynamics of the secondary eyewall genesis in Hurricane Wilma (2005)
Konstantinos Menelaou, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and P. M. K. Yau and Y. Martinez

  8:30 AM
Concentric Eyewall Formation in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) – Part I: Axisymmetric Processes
Yi-Hsuan Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and M. T. Montgomery and C. C. Wu

  8:45 AM
Concentric Eyewall Formation in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) – Part II: Further Examination of Axisymmetric and Asymmetric Processes
Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. H. Huang and M. T. Montgomery

  9:00 AM
Objective Diagnosis of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle in Typhoon Sinlaku
Elizabeth R. Sanabia, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and N. P. Celone and C. M. Fine

  9:15 AM
Vortex Rossby Waves and Secondary Eyewall Formation in a High-resolution Simulation of Hurricane Katrina (2005)
Kristen L. Corbosiero, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and S. Abarca and M. T. Montgomery

  9:30 AM
Secondary eyewall formation in high-resolution simulations
Sergio Abarca, Naval Postgraduate School, Carmel, CA; and M. T. Montgomery and K. L. Corbosiero

  9:45 AM
Concentric Eyewall Typhoon characteristics at Western North Pacific
Hung-Chi Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. T. Yang and C. H. Liu

  10:00 AM
Thermodynamic Evolution of the Hurricane Inner-Core during Eyewall Replacement Cycles and Ramifications of the Relict Wind Maximum
Matthew Sitkowski, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. P. Kossin, C. M. Rozoff, and J. A. Knaff

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 16 April 2012


Session
A.M. Coffee Break
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 2B
Historical Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones II
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center
  10:30 AM
A Reanalysis of the 1944-1953 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons - The First Decade of Aircraft Reconnaissance
Andrew B. Hagen, University of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), Miami, FL; and D. Strahan-Sakoskie and C. Luckett

  10:45 AM
  11:00 AM
A reconstruction of landfalling tropical cyclones on the Pacific coast of Mexico from 1850 to 1949
Graciela B. Raga, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera/Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and B. Bracamontes-Cevallos, L. M. Farfán, and R. Romero-Centeno

  11:15 AM
  11:30 AM
Improving Counts of Global Intense Tropical Cyclone Events Back to 1970
Adam S. R. Lea, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders

  11:45 AM
An Inactive Period of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1998-2011
Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and K. S. Liu

10:30 AM-12:30 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 2A
Tropical Cyclone Operational Issues I
Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Lixion A. Avila, NWS/TPC/NHC
  10:30 AM
The 2011 Columbus Day Weekend Storm: Overcoming Challenges in Diagnosing a Rapidly Strengthening Maritime Low Pressure System and Communicating the Associated Warning Message
Matthew Volkmer, NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office, Melbourne, FL; and D. S. Kelly, A. Cristaldi, P. Blottman, P. Glitto, R. Lascody, J. Pendergrast, A. Moses, T. Sedlock, R. Wimmer, M. Bragaw, A. Bowen, and D. Sharp

  11:00 AM
  11:15 AM
Communicating objective guidance for tropical cyclone forecasting – Evolving operational practices and techniques
Chris Fogarty, Canadian Hurricane Center, Dartmouth, NS, Canada

http://www.novaweather.net/Uploads/AMS_30th_Tropical_Ponte_Vedra/2Ap4.PPT

  11:45 AM
  12:00 PM
Analysis of a Bathymetric Storm Surge Scale
Patrick J. Fitzpatrick, Geosystems Research Institute, Stennis Space Center, MS; and Y. Lau

  12:15 PM
The Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT): Transitioning Research to Operations
Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. G. Jiing and C. W. Landsea

Recording files available
Session 2C
Tropical Cyclone Genesis II
Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD
  10:30 AM
Tropical Cycle Genesis Prediction Index
Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and B. Fu, T. Li, M. E. Kucas, and J. Darlow

  10:45 AM
Tropical Cyclogenesis Hypothesis Testing Using Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis
Rahul B. Mahajan, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim

  11:00 AM
Determining Tropical Cyclogenesis in the eastern North Pacific Using Remotely Sensed Data
Lesley A. L. Mazzarella, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie

  11:15 AM
Global and Basin Tropical Cyclone Frequency Indices
Cindy Bruyere, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Holland

  11:30 AM
Numerical Study on the Formation of Typhoon Ketsana (2003) in the Western North Pacific
Guoping Zhang, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and K. K. W. Cheung and X. Lu

  11:45 AM
Genesis of Hurricane Julia (2010) from an African Easterly Wave: Wave Structure and Possible Triggers
Stefan Cecelski, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. L. Zhang

  12:00 PM
Genesis of Tropical Storm Debby (2006) from an African Easterly Wave
Lin Zhu, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. L. Zhang

Recording files available
Session 2D
Tropical Cyclones, Land Interaction, and Landfall II
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Sytske K. Kimball, Univ. of South Alabama
  10:30 AM
**Numerical Study on the Development of Asymmetric Convection during Tropical Cyclone Landfall**
Yubin Li, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and K. K. W. Cheung

  10:45 AM
mesoscale features and the lightning distribution in tyohoon morakot after it passed Taiwan
Ben Jong-Dao Jou, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and B. leon

  11:00 AM
Effects of topography on TC tracks and precipitation distributions over land along the South China Coast
Kit Ying Fung, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

  11:15 AM
The influence of Tropical cyclone structure on eyewall evolution simulation of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) crossing Taiwan
Cheng-Hsiang Chih, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. H. Chou

  11:30 AM
On the Slowdown of Landfall Typhoon by Topography Phase Locked Convections
Hung-Chi Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. H. Hsu and R. G. Fovell

  11:45 AM
Effect of topography on Tropical cyclone movement
Chi-Kit Tang, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and J. C. L. Chan

  12:00 PM
Potential Vorticity Budget of Typhoon Nari (2001) at Landfall
Ming-Jen Yang, National Central University, Chung-Li, Taiwan; and P. H. Lin

  12:15 PM
Influence of Topography on Tropical Cyclone Track - Idealized Simulations
Tsung-Han Li, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012


Lunch Break
Location: Sawgrass Marriott

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 3B
Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change I
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
 
3B.2
Arabian Sea tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols

  2:00 PM
Space-Time Statistical Models for Hurricane Climate and Change
James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. H. Jagger

  2:15 PM
A Spatial Framework for Comparing GCM-Generated Tropical Cyclone Tracks
Sarah E. Strazzo, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Elsner

  2:30 PM
**Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclone Tracks**
Angela J. Colbert, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. J. Soden

  2:45 PM
Increasing Tropical Cyclone Precipitation due to Global Warming
Eric K. W. Ng, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan and W. R. Huang

  3:00 PM
Local and Remote Influences on Atlantic Hurricane Potential Intensity
Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and M. Ting and Y. Kushnir

Recording files available
Session 3C
Tropical Cyclone Genesis III
Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
  1:30 PM
Large Scale Circulation Patterns Favorable to Tropical Cyclogenesis over the Western North Pacific
Tao Feng, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and G. Chen and X. Shen

  1:45 PM
Mesoscale Features of Tropical Cyclone Formations Associated with the Trade Wind Surges in the Western North Pacific
Lung-Yao Chang, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National Applied Research Laboratories, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. S. Lee

  2:15 PM
The Comparison of Developing and Non-developing Waves during the NAMMA Experiment
Yi-Chin liu, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA; and S. H. Chen

  2:30 PM
  2:45 PM
**African Easterly Wave Convection and Tropical Cyclogenesis: A Lagrangian Perspective**
Kenneth D. Leppert II, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and D. J. Cecil

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 3A
Tropical Cyclone Operational Issues II
Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NCEP
  1:30 PM
Extended-range Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasts at the National Hurricane Center
Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and T. B. Kimberlain and J. P. Cangialosi

  1:45 PM
  2:00 PM
Evaluating Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasts from Four Global Numerical Models
Daniel J. Halperin, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg, R. E. Hart, P. Sura, J. Cossuth, R. Truchelut, and R. J. Pasch

  2:45 PM
Computing and Understanding Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis

  3:00 PM
A New Approach to Diagnose Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction Error
Munehiko Yamaguchi, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and K. Aonashi

  3:30 PM
Recording files available
Session 3D
Numerical Modeling I: TC Initialization, Sensitivity and Predictability Studies
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Ryan Torn, SUNY / University at Albany
  1:30 PM
Effects of Parameterized Diffusion on Simulated Hurricanes
Richard Rotunno, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. H. Bryan

  1:45 PM
Choosing a boundary-layer parameterisation for tropical cyclone modelling
Jeffrey D. Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

  2:15 PM
Sensitivity of the NOAA Hurricane Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) to Horizontal and Vertical Diffusion
J.-W. Bao, NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and S. G. Gopalakrishnan, S. A. Michelson, F. Marks, and M. T. Montgomery

  2:30 PM
Community Support and Testing of the Hurricane WRF model at the Developmental Testbed Center
Ligia Bernardet, OAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Bao, T. Brown, M. K. Biswas, D. Stark, and L. Carson

http://dtcenter.org/HurrWRF

  2:45 PM
Tropical Cyclone Prediction: Initial Condition Sensitivity
Richard M. Hodur, SAIC, Medford, OR; and J. D. Doyle, C. S. Liou, and K. D. Sashegyi

  3:00 PM
Impacts of Turbulence Length Scales on Numerical Forecasts of Hurricane Earl (2010)
Yongsheng Chen, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; and S. Kurkute

  3:30 PM
Storm-Centered Assimilation using an Ensemble Kalman Filter
Erika L. Navarro, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012


Session
Afternoon Coffee Break
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 4A
Tropical Cyclone Operational Issues III
Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Dr. Richard Pasch, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC
  4:00 PM
An update on scatterometer data exploitation at NHC
Rick Danielson, UCAR, Miami, FL; and M. J. Brennan, H. D. Cobb III, and B. W. Stiles

  4:15 PM
Analysis of the impact of supplemental dropwindsonde and rawinsonde observations on model track forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)
Michael J. Brennan, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar, K. L. Howard, and V. Tallapragada

  4:30 PM
Assimilating HDOB Data in COAMPS® NAVDAS for Hurricane Earl
Patricia M. Pauley, NRL, Monterey, CA; and H. Holbach, K. D. Sashegyi, C. M. Amerault, D. Tyndall, and R. H. Langland

  4:45 PM
Recent Updates to FNMOC Tropical Cyclone Forecast Products
Charles E. Skupniewicz, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and C. L. Dickerman

  5:00 PM
2012 Upgrades to the Operational GFDL/GFDN Hurricane Model
Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. Marchok and R. Tuleya

  5:30 PM
Operational implementation of ensemble-based "dynamical"
Thierry Dupont, RSMC La Réunion, Météo-France, Sainte Clotilde CEDEX 09, France; and M. Plu, P. Caroff, and G. Faure

  5:45 PM
Making Use of Operational Model Forecast Skill in a Real-Time Setting
Peter S. Dailey, AIR-Worldwide, Boston, MA; and I. Dima

Recording files available
Session 4B
Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change II
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: James B. Elsner, Florida State University
  4:00 PM
Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Indices for Climate Change using the HIRAM model
Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and M. K. Tippett, A. H. Sobel, G. A. Vecchi, M. Zhao, and I. M. Held

  4:15 PM
Tropical cyclone genesis factors in simulations of the last glacial maxium
Robert Korty, Texas A&M, College Station, TX; and S. J. Camargo and J. Galewsky

  4:30 PM
Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Projected by the New High-Resolution MRI-AGCM
Hiroyuki Murakami, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and Y. Wang, M. Sugi, and A. Kitoh

  5:00 PM
Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change in a High Resolution General Circulation Model, HiGEM
Ray Bell, NCAS-Climate, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and P. L. Vidale, K. I. Hodges, and J. Strachan

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~df019697/

  5:15 PM
Dynamically Downscaled Simulations of Tropical Cyclones - A Multi-Model Approach for the Australian Region
Sally Lavender, CSIRO, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; and D. Abbs, T. Rafter, and K. Walsh

  5:30 PM
Climate Change Impact on Typhoon Affecting Taiwan Using MRI 20-km Mesh AGCM Time Slice Simulations
Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and T. P. Tzeng, C. T. Cheng, and A. Kitoh

Recording files available
Session 4C
Tropical Cyclone Genesis IV
Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Kevin J. Tory, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
  4:00 PM
The role of vertical shear orientation on tropical cyclogenesis
Eric D. Rappin, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

  4:15 PM
  4:30 PM
Influence of Environmental Water Vapor on Tropical Cyclogenesis
Derek Ortt, ImpactWeather, Inc., Houston, TX; and K. Smith

  4:45 PM
The Thermodynamic Environment of a Mid-Level Vortex and Tropical Cyclogenesis
David Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and S. Gjorgjievska and S. Sessions

  5:00 PM
  5:15 PM
Examination of the roles of intense convection and moisture field in tropical cyclone formation
Zhaoxia Pu, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Li and L. Thatcher

  5:30 PM
Roles of the Upper-Level Warm Core in Triggering Tropical Cyclogenesis
Da-Lin Zhang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu

  5:45 PM
Investigating the Role of the Upper-Levels in Tropical Cyclogenesis
John Sears, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Recording files available
Session 4D
Numerical Modeling II: Uncoupled TC Structure and Intensity Studies
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Eric Hendricks, NRL
  4:00 PM
  4:15 PM
Assessing the predictability of Tropical Storm Erika (2009) through an analysis of environmental factors
Erin B. Munsell, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and D. P. Stern and F. Zhang

  4:30 PM
Tropical Cyclone Kinetic Energy and Structure Evolution in the HWRF Model
Katherine S. Maclay, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria and T. H. Vonder Haar

  5:00 PM
A numerical study of roll vortices in the hurricane boundary layer
Kun Gao, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis

  5:15 PM
Helical convective vortices in the hurricane boundary layer simulated with the University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostatic Modeling System (UW-NMS)
Zachary Gruskin, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli, W. E. Lewis, J. Zhang, and F. D. Marks Jr.

  5:30 PM
Tropical Cyclone Energy Energetics and Intensity Prediction
Gregory J. Tripoli, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI

  5:45 PM

6:00 PM-7:00 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012


Session
Ice Breaker Reception
Location: Sawgrass Pool (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

8:00 PM-9:30 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012

Recording files available
Session S1
Special Evening Session: Field Experiment Overviews
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Russell L. Elsberry, NPS
  8:00 PM
NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) Field Experiment Bringing New Technologies to the Hurricane Intensity Problem
Edward J. Zipser, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and S. A. Braun, G. M. Heymsfield, and R. Kakar

  8:30 PM
The PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) Field Campaign: Roles and Perspectives of Early Career Scientists
Clark Evans, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI; and H. Archambault, J. M. Cordeira, C. L. Fritz, T. J. Galarneau Jr., S. Gjorgjievska, K. S. Griffin, A. Johnson, W. Komaromi, S. A. Monette, P. Muradyan, B. J. Murphy, M. Riemer, J. Sears, D. P. Stern, B. Tang, and S. W. Thompson

  8:45 PM
NOAA's Intensity Forecasting Experiment: Ongoing Work and 2010 Summary
Robert Rogers, Hurricane Research Division, AOML, Miami, FL

  9:00 PM
An Introduction to DYNAMO
Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

Tuesday, 17 April 2012

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 17 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 5B
Tropical Cyclone Interannual Variability
Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University
  8:00 AM
An Observational Study on the Interdecadal variability of Intense Tropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere
Kevin K. W. Cheung, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and N. Jiang

  8:15 AM
Influence of Tropical Indian Ocean Warming and ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific
Li Tao, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and L. Wu and Y. Wang

  8:30 AM
  8:45 AM
Significant QBO Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Activity
Meng-Pai Hung, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. L. Lin and S. Stuckman

  9:00 AM
The MJO and the 2005 Hurricane Season
Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC; and J. P. Kossin and L. Shi

  9:15 AM
The different impacts of two kinds of Pacific Ocean warming on tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific
Guanghua Chen, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China

  9:45 AM
Dynamically-Derived Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes over the Western North Pacific
Liguang Wu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and H. Zhao

8:00 AM-10:15 AM: Tuesday, 17 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 5A
PREDICT I
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Michael T. Montgomery, NPS and NOAA Hurricane Research Division
  8:30 AM
Dynamics and Thermodynamics of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and the Caribbean
Saska Gjorgjievska, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond

  8:45 AM
Observations of the convective environment in developing and non-developing tropical disturbances
Roger K. Smith, Ludwig Maximilian's University, Munich, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery

  9:00 AM
  9:15 AM
  9:30 AM
Thermodynamic Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Spin-up
Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL

  9:45 AM
  10:00 AM
Moisture Variability in a developing cyclone as measured by airborne GPS radio occultation
Brian J. Murphy, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and J. S. Haase, P. Muradyan, J. L. Garrison, S. H. Chen, and Y. C. liu

Recording files available
Session 5C
Tropical Cyclone Rainbands and Precipitation
Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD
  8:15 AM
A Study on the Typhoon Precipitation Forecast in Taiwan
Cheng-Shang Lee, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. R. Huang, L. F. Hsiao, D. Y. C. Chen, and L. Y. Chang

  8:30 AM
  8:45 AM
Hurricane Outer Core Convective Initiation and the Importance of Cold Pools and Elevated Dry Air
Wesley D. Terwey, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and A. J. Eiserloh Jr. and C. Rothwell

  9:15 AM
Convective and Rainfall Properties in the Inner Core and Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Using 11-yr TRMM Data
Haiyan Jiang, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and E. Ramirez and D. J. Cecil

  9:30 AM
  9:45 AM
**Quantitative Comparison of TRMM Precipitation Algorithms in Tropical Cyclones**
Joseph P. Zagrodnik, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

  10:00 AM
The Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Drought Alleviation in the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
Patrick J. Fitzpatrick, Geosystems Research Institute, Stennis Space Center, MS; and C. M. Hill, H. Jiang, P. J. Klotzbach, Y. Lau, and D. Roth

Recording files available
Session 5D
Numerical Modeling III: Coupled Modeling
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC
  8:00 AM
A Case Study of Nearshore Drag Coefficient Behavior during Hurricane Ike (2008)
Brian C. Zachry, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and A. B. Kennedy, J. L. Schroeder, J. Westerink, and C. W. Letchford

  8:15 AM
The air-sea interface under tropical cyclone conditions
Alexander V. Soloviev, Nova Southeastern University Oceanographic Center, Dania Beach, FL; and A. Fujimura and S. Matt

  8:30 AM
Vertical Momentum Transport in a Spray-stratified Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer Under High-wind Conditions of a Hurricane
Yevgenii Rastigejev, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and S. A. Suslov and Y. L. Lin

  9:00 AM
Investigation of the Role of the Ocean Component in HWRF
Hyun-Sook Kim, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and J. D. Sims, C. Lozano, V. Tallapragada, D. Iredell, Y. Kwon, Q. Liu, D. Sheinin, and Z. Zhang

  9:15 AM
Diagnosing the POM-TC ocean model component of NOAA's HWRF and GFDL coupled hurricane forecast models
Richard M. Yablonsky, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis

  9:30 AM
Advanced coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling for improving tropical cyclone prediction models
Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and T. Hara, B. Thomas, B. Reichl, J. Bao, and C. Fairall

  9:45 AM
Air-ocean-wave coupling of Hurricane Ivan (September 2004) in COAMPS-TC
Travis A. Smith, Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS; and S. Chen, T. Campbell, E. Rogers, S. Gabersek, S. Carroll, and R. A. Allard

  10:00 AM
Impact of an Ocean Model's Horizontal Resolution on the Ocean Response to a Hurricane
Melissa Kaufman, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis and R. Yablonsky

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Tuesday, 17 April 2012


Session
A.M. Coffee Break
Location: Sawgrass Marriott
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 6C
Tropical Cyclone Remote Sensing I
Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL
  10:30 AM
NRL tropical cyclone satellite meteorological demonstration products
Jeffrey D. Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Richardson, M. Surratt, T. F. Lee, C. R. Sampson, J. E. Solbrig, S. Yang, A. P. Kuciauskas, and J. Kent

  10:45 AM
Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity at Low Wind Speeds
Kelly E. Ryan, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie

  11:00 AM
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation and Formation Detection using the Deviation Angle Variance Technique
Miguel F. Pineros, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie, J. S. Tyo, K. M. Wood, G. Valliere-Kelley, I. A. Hernandez, W. Black, and O. Rodriguez-Herrera

  11:15 AM
New Insights into Tropical Cyclone Dynamics from the MISR Instrument on NASA's Terra Satellite
Michael Garay, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and K. Mueller and D. Wu

 
6C.5
More Tropical Cyclone Analysis using Microwave Imagery and Data

  11:45 AM
The Megha-Tropiques Mission: Overview
Nicolas Viltard, CNRS-UVSQ, Guyancourt, France

  12:00 PM
Using COSMIC to Infer Moist and Dry Environments Around Tropical Cyclones
Patrick J. Fitzpatrick, Geosystems Research Institute, Stennis Space Center, MS; and C. M. Hill and Y. Lau

10:30 AM-12:30 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 6A
PREDICT II
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Christopher Davis, NCAR
  10:30 AM
**Large-Scale Influences on the Genesis of Hurricane Karl (2010)**
Kyle S. Griffin, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

  10:45 AM
Predictability studies of genesis and non-genesis using global model ensembles
Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and W. Komaromi

  11:00 AM
Predictability and dynamics of the genesis of Hurricane Karl (2010)
Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and X. Zhou and D. Tao

  11:30 AM
**A Numerical Model Study about the Impacts of Dry Air on Tropical Cyclone Formation**
Cody L. Fritz, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang

  11:45 AM
  12:00 PM
Central American Gyres, Tropical Cyclones, and Heavy Rainfall
Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. S. Griffin and P. P. Papin

  12:15 PM
**A numerical study of rotating convection during tropical cyclogenesis**
Gerard Kilroy, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith

Manuscript (249.0 kB)

Recording files available
Session 6B
Tropical Cyclones, Aggregation, and Their Role in Climate
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Kerry Emanuel, MIT
  10:45 AM
Response of tropical cyclone frequency to idealized climate changes
Timothy M. Merlis, Princeton University and GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. Zhao and I. M. Held

  11:00 AM
  11:30 AM
Cumulative Effect of Hurricanes on the Atlantic Ocean
Michael Bueti, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis and L. Rothstein

  11:45 AM
The Upper Ocean's Thermal Response to Tropical Cyclones
John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, C. Sampson, J. E. Peak, J. Cummings, and W. Schubert

  12:00 PM
**Assessing the Climate Footprint of Tropical Cyclones: Pertinent Players or Irrelevant Pawns?**
Benjamin Schenkel, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and R. E. Hart

  12:15 PM
Tropical Cyclone Induced Heat Transport
Gino Chen, Miami, FL; and B. P. Kirtman

Recording files available
Session 6D
Numerical Modeling IV: Coupled Modeling
Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island
  10:30 AM
Resolving Loop Current and Eddy Variability For Coupled Intensity Forecast Models
Lynn K. (Nick) Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Jaimes, J. K. Brewster, P. C. Meyers, E. C. McCaskill, G. R. Halliwell Jr., and E. W. Uhlhorn

  10:45 AM
The Response of Quasi-Geostrophic Oceanic Vortices to Tropical Cyclone Forcing
Benjamin Jaimes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay and G. R. Halliwell Jr.

  11:00 AM
Coupled Model Simulations Investigating the Role of East Australian Current Eddies in the Formation of East Coast Lows
Christopher R. S. Chambers, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and G. B. Brassington, K. Walsh, and I. Simmonds

  11:15 AM
**Using variable resolution meshes to model tropical cyclones in NCAR's CAM general circulation model**
Colin M. Zarzycki, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Jablonowski

  11:30 AM
Structural Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Simulations in General Circulation Models
Christiane Jablonowski, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and K. A. Reed

  11:45 AM
Tropical Cyclone Characteristics in the High-Resolution Community Atmosphere Model
Kevin A. Reed, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Jablonowski and M. F. Wehner

  12:15 PM
Oceanic Variability during the CINDY/DYNAMO Field Campaign Simulated by the Global Eddy-resolving Ocean General Circulation Model
Toshiaki Shinoda, NRL, Stennis Space Center, MS; and W. Han, C. Wang, and L. Zamudio

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2012


Lunch Break
Location: Sawgrass Marriott

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 7B
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change I
Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Kristen L. Corbosiero, University at Albany, State University of New York
  2:00 PM
On the Trigger of Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Wilma (2005)
Hua Chen, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. Zhang

  2:15 PM
**Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Earl in Advanced Hurricane WRF Model Simulations**
Diamilet Pérez-Betancourt, University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez, PR; and C. Davis

Manuscript (457.1 kB)

  2:30 PM
**Rapid Intensification of a Sheared, Fast-Moving Hurricane over the Gulf Stream**
Leon Nguyen, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari

  2:45 PM
Convective evolution during rapid intensification under varying shear
Daniel S. Harnos, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. W. Nesbitt

  3:00 PM
Understanding passive microwave and radar signatures of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones: observations and model simulations for process understanding
Stephen W. Nesbitt, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and D. S. Harnos, S. Tanelli, S. L. Durden, and G. M. McFarquhar

  3:15 PM
Recording files available
Session 7C
Tropical Cyclone Remote Sensing II
Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin
  1:30 PM
The current status of the UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Timothy L. Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

  1:45 PM
Update on SATellite-based CONsensus (SATCON) Approach to TC Intensity Estimation
Derrick Herndon, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden and J. D. Hawkins

  2:00 PM
Advances in objective TC center fixing using multispectral satellite imagery
Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

  2:30 PM
Improving SFMR Surface Wind Measurements in Heavy Rain Conditions
Bradley W. Klotz, NOAA/AOML - Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn

  2:45 PM
Comparison of a 2-D Velocity Dealiasing Algorithm to the Legacy WSR-88D Velocity Dealiasing Algorithm during Hurricane Irene
W. David Zittel, NOAA, National Weather Service, Radar Operations Center, Norman, OK; and Z. Jing

  3:00 PM
"The Use of the RGB Airmass Product at the HPC, OPC, NHC, and SAB GOES-R Proving Grounds during the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season"
Michael J. Folmer, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and A. L. Molthan, K. K. Fuell, J. A. Knaff, J. M. Sienkiewicz, E. Danaher, J. Kibler, D. R. Novak, B. Reed, J. L. Beven II, and M. DeMaria

  3:15 PM
**Global distribution of Hot Towers in Tropical Cyclones Based on 11-year TRMM Data**
Cheng Tao, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 7A
DYNAMO/CINDY2011 I
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
  1:30 PM
A General View of the International Field Experiment CINDY2011 and DYNAMO
Kunio Yoneyama, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and C. Zhang

Poster PDF (1.5 MB)

  2:15 PM
AMIE: A two-pronged campaign to study the MJO in collaboration with DYNAMO and CINDY2011
Charles N. Long, PNNL, Richland, WA; and S. A. McFarlane, B. Orr, M. Ritsche, P. Ortega, and T. Culgan

  2:45 PM
SMART-R and the DYNAMO/CINDY2011 6-month Extended Observation Period
Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

  3:00 PM
Relationship between Horizontal and Vertical Size of Convective Cells Observed during DYNAMO
Daehyun Kim, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and C. Schumacher, A. H. Sobel, and M. Mosier

  3:15 PM
forecasts and hindcasts of MJO events during CINDY2011/DYNAMO field campaign using a global nonhydrostatic model NICAM
Tomoe Nasuno, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan; and M. Ikeda, M. Satoh, K. Yoneyama, R. Shirooka, K. Yasunaga, H. Yamada, M. Katsumata, and J. Suzuki

  3:30 PM
Performance of the NCEP model suite during DYNAMO October 2011-March 2012
Augustin Vintzileos, University of Maryland / ESSIC / CICS-MD, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Gottschalck

Recording files available
Session 7D
Catastrophe Modeling & Other Industry Topics
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide Corporation
  1:30 PM
Virtual Vessels Evading Historical Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico
Dante C. Diaz, ImpactWeather, Inc., Houston, TX; and B. Weinzapfel, D. Eyre, M. Wishahy, and J. Spain

  1:45 PM
Quantifying risk in LiveCAT Markets: A Real-Time Named Storm Impact Loss Model
Andrew Siffert, FlagstoneRE, Halifax, NS, Canada; and G. Hofmann and J. H. Paek

http://www.flagstonere.com/index.aspx

  2:00 PM
A Hurricane Risk Index for the U.S
Peter S. Dailey, AIR-Worldwide, Boston, MA; and I. Dima and M. Desflots

  2:30 PM
Is a Trillion Dollar Hurricane Season Possible?
Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University, Miami, FL

  2:45 PM
EQECAT's Time-Stepping United States Mainland Tropical Cyclone Wind Field Model
Justin Brolley, EQECAT, Inc, Oakland, CA; and J. Mangano, D. F. Smith, and A. Haseemkunju

  3:00 PM
Tropical Cyclone Risk Models - Circular Symmetry Revisited
Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and J. Butke and K. A. Hill

  3:15 PM
Towards a Global Tropical Cyclone Risk Model
Angelika Werner, Willis Research Network, London, United Kingdom; and G. J. Holland, J. M. Done, J. Czajkowski, I. Scott, H. Galy, P. L. Vidale, J. Strachan, T. R. Knutson, M. Zhao, H. S. Kim, J. A. Smith, G. Villarini, P. McSharry, D. B. Stephenson, R. Vitolo, B. Khazai, and G. Michel

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2012


Session
Afternoon Coffee Break
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2012


Poster Session P1
Poster Session I: Operational Issues, Genesis, Precipitation, Landfall, Historical Perspectives, and Climate Change
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
 
The Characteristics of Disaster Associated with Track of Typhoon Affecting the Korean Peninsula
Ki-Jun Park, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and S. H. Ahn and B. J. Kim

Poster PDF (436.8 kB)

 
Socio-economic impacts of typhoon struck the Korean Peninsular
Baek-Jo Kim, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and C. Cho and K. J. Park

Poster PDF (2.2 MB)

 
The Seventh International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones
Jeffrey D. Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and C. S. Velden, E. A. Ritchie, and P. Caroff

 
Training on tropical cyclones for Latin American students
Luis M. Farfán, CICESE, Unidad La Paz, La Paz, Baja California , Mexico; and G. B. Raga

Manuscript (579.7 kB)

Poster PDF (181.9 kB)

 
The Continuously Operating Caribbean Observational Network (COCONet): Improved Observational Capacity in the Caribbean
John J. Braun, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Calais, K. Feaux, G. Mattioli, M. Miller, and G. Wang

 
Discriminating between tornadic and non-tornadic soundings in tropical cyclones
Matthew D. Eastin, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and B. M. Hays and M. C. Link

 
Variations of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Vietnam Coastal Region
Hoang Anh Nguyen-Thi, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Hachioji, Japan; and J. Matsumoto and N. Endo

 
Remote Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Heavy Rainfall over the Korean Peninsula
Kun-Young Byun, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea; and T. Y. Lee

http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/14983

Poster PDF (1.8 MB)

 
Explorations in understanding the diurnal rainfall cycle over islands
Larissa E. Back, University of Wisconsin- Madison, Madison, WI

 
An Observational and Modeling Study of Tropical Cyclone Outer Rainbands
Randell J. Barry, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ., Daytona Beach, FL; and T. A. Guinn

Manuscript (1.9 MB)

Poster PDF (737.1 kB)

 
Rain retrieval challenges associated with Hawaiian Islands
Daniel J. Cecil, University of Alabama - Huntsville, Huntsville, AL

 
Influence of Storm Motion on TC Precipitation Distribution
Ying Li, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, Beijing, China

 
A Look at the New Oceansat-2 Scatterometer (OSCAT) over Tropical Cyclones
Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Barrigada, Guam; and P. S. Chang and Z. Jelenak

 
Overview of the GOES-R Proving Ground Activities at National Hurricane Center
John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, D. W. Hillger, D. T. Lindsey, D. A. Molenar, J. L. Beven II, M. J. Brennan, H. D. Cobb III, R. Brummer, A. B. Schumacher, J. Dunion, K. K. Fuell, A. L. Molthan, and C. S. Velden

 
New GSMaP over-land precipitation retrieval algorithm for AMSR2
Kazumasa Aonashi, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Yamaguchi, H. Ishimoto, and K. Imaoka

Poster PDF (401.0 kB)

 
The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) - Planned research and development avenues for continued algorithm improvement
Timothy L. Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

 
Tropical cyclone intensity estimation using temporal analysis and spatial features in satellite data
Gholamreza Fetanat, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and A. Homaifar and K. Knapp

Manuscript (661.4 kB)

Poster PDF (368.5 kB)

 
Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using the SSMIS and ATMS Sounders
Derrick Herndon, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Manuscript (551.1 kB)

 
Computing Deep-Tropospheric Vertical Wind Shear Analyses for TC Applications: Does the Methodology Matter?
Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. Sears and M. Sitkowski

Manuscript (524.7 kB)

 
Examining Trends in Satellite-Detected Overshooting Tops as a Potential Predictor of Tropical Cyclone Genesis
Sarah A. Monette, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Manuscript (495.0 kB)

Poster PDF (5.8 MB)

 
Simulated Satellite Imagery as a Diagnostic Tool for Regional Hurricane Models
David A. Zelinsky, National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL

 
Spatial Modeling of Single Cell Cloud-to-Ground Lightning in Gwinnett County, GA
Ona M. Strikas, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner

http://myweb.fsu.edu/oms10/AMSposter.pdf

Poster PDF (1.6 MB)

 
Tropical cyclogenesis sensitivity and predictability
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. M. Amerault, J. R. Moskaitis, and C. A. Reynolds

 
Role of Intense Updrafts in Tropical Cyclone Formation
Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL

 
A Development Process of the Tropical Disturbance Observed in PALAU2010 for Understanding Tropical Cyclognesis
Yoshida Ryuji, RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan

Manuscript (1.4 MB)

 
The Climatological Characteristics of the Landfall Typhoons on North Korea
Suk-Hee Ahn, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, South Korea; and K. J. Park and B. J. Kim

Poster PDF (434.8 kB)

 
A Statistical and Numerical Modeling Approach to Improved Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Wind Forecasts
Bryce Paul Tyner, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and A. Aiyyer

 
Evolution of lightning in eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclones as they approach the coast of Mexico
Graciela B. Raga, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera/Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and T. Aviles, J. S. Cervantes, and F. Oropeza

Poster PDF (712.7 kB)

 
Overview of UAHuntsville ground-based observations of landfalling Hurricane Irene (2011)
Kevin Knupp, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and D. Phillips, S. Mullins, T. A. Murphy, M. Saari, and R. A. Wade

 
Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Windfields to 120hrs lead
Adam S. R. Lea, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders

 
Accuracy of NHC Track and Intensity Forecasts for Tropical Disturbances and Weak Tropical Cyclones
Daniel P. Brown, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and J. P. Cangialosi and T. B. Kimberlain

 
Verification of tropical cyclone track predictions from an experimental high-resolution NOGAPS ensemble
Jonathan R. Moskaitis, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds, E. Serra, and J. McLay

 
Verification and expansion of probabilistic tropical cyclogenesis forecasts by Dvorak analyses
Joshua Cossuth, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and R. D. Knabb, D. P. Brown, and R. E. Hart

 
Analysis of the variability of Atlantic tropical cyclone forecast errors
Joshua Cossuth, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

 
Evaluation of Synoptic Patterns for Atlantic Hurricanes Categorized by Ensemble Track Error and Variance
Lindsey Day, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

 
SLOSH Model Hindcast of Hurricane Irene (2011) Surge
Brian C. Zachry, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and A. L. Doggett and A. B. Kennedy

Manuscript (2.2 MB)

 
Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Track Forecasts from the ECMWF 15-day and 32-day Ensemble for the western North Pacific
Grant Elliott, Bureau of Meteorology, Perth, Australia, West Perth, Australia; and R. L. Elsberry and P. Harr

 
The forecasting skill impact of verifying TC dissipation
Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

 
Extension of global best-track tropical cyclone record using gridded reanalyses
Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcprob

Manuscript (600.7 kB)

 
P1.44
Is a homogeneous global record of TC position and intensity possible?

 
A Reanalysis of the 1931 to 1943 Atlantic Hurricane Database
Christopher Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and A. B. Hagen, W. Bredemeyer, D. A. Glenn, A. Santiago, and C. Carrasco

 
Tropical Cyclones Tracks near the coast of Southern Mexico
John Cangialosi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL

 
Evaluating the relationship between large-scale and storm-ambient environments
Stacy M. Lynn, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and A. Evan

 
A Reanalysis of the 1954 Atlantic Hurricane Season Database
Sandy Delgado, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), Miami, FL

 
P1.52
Cluster analysis of tropical cyclone tracks in the Southern Hemisphere

 
The Role of Tropical Cyclones in the Mexico Climate
Christian Dominguez Sarmiento, UNAM (National Autonomous University of Mexico), mexico city, df, Mexico; and V. O. Magaña Rueda

Manuscript (657.3 kB)

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

 
Tropical cyclone landfall probabilities and track analysis for the Eastern North Pacific: 1970-2009
Rosario Romero-Centeno, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), México City (D.F.), México, Mexico City, DF, Mexico; and J. Zavala-Hidalgo and G. Raga

Poster PDF (3.4 MB)

 
Uncertainties in Futurue Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Projected by Multi-Physics and Multi-SST Ensemble Experiments Using the 60-KM-Mesh MRI-AGCM
Hiroyuki Murakami, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and R. Mizuta and E. Shindo

Poster PDF (1.7 MB)

 
Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Florida's Future Hurricane Event Risk
Michelle Ruiz, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

 
The Hots Get Hotter: Tallahassee's History of 100 Degree Days Since 1951
Laura Elizabeth Michaels, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner

8:00 PM-9:30 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2012

Recording files available
Plenary Session S2
Special Evening Session: Panel Discussion on Industry Applications
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Moderators: Richard J. Murnane, Bermuda Biological Station for Research; Greg J. Holland, NCAR
  8:00 PM
Using Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: Presented by Dale Rowe

  8:15 PM
Crowdsourcing Seasonal Hurricane landfall Forecasts: Presented by Rick Murnane

Wednesday, 18 April 2012

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 8A
DYNAMO/CINDY2011 II
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Charles N. Long, PNNL
  8:00 AM
The DYNAMO/CINDY Atmospheric Sounding Array: Its Performance and Plans for Quality Control
Paul E. Ciesielski, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson

  8:15 AM
DYNAMO/CINDY Sounding Network – Performance and Preliminary Scientific Results
Richard H. Johnson, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and P. E. Ciesielski

  8:30 AM
Spatial Variability of Tropospheric Water Vapor and Convective Cloud Systems in DYNAMO
Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Lee, F. Judt, B. Kerns, and E. Ryan

  8:45 AM
Moisture Variations observed over the Tropical Indian Ocean during CINDY2011
Kazuaki Yasunaga, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and M. Katsumata and K. Yoneyama

  9:00 AM
Continuous Estimates of GPS Precipitable Water Vapor During the DYNAMO Field Experiment
John J. Braun, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Van Hove, W. O. J. Brown, T. M. Weckwerth, and T. Lim

 
8A.6
Time Series of Remotely-Sensed Humidity Vertical Profiles and Lower-Tropospheric Humidity and Liquid Water Content Fields at DYNAMO's S-Pol Site

  9:30 AM
  9:45 AM
Moisture mode theory: the role of horizontal moisture advection in the MJO
Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and E. D. Maloney

Recording files available
Session 8C
Tropical Cyclone Structure I: TC-Environment Interaction and Higher Order Structure
Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Stephen Guimond, NASA / GSFC
  8:15 AM
On Roles of ICE-Phase Microphysics in Tropical Cyclone Evolution with Vertical Wind Shear
Zhenduo zhu, Department of Earth and Environment, Miami, FL; and P. Zhu

  8:30 AM
**A Model Study on Tropical Cyclone Structural Changes in Response to Ambient Moisture Variations**
Yue Ying, The Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA; and Q. Zhang Sr.

  8:45 AM
Diurnal Pulsing of Tropical Cyclones: An Overlooked Yet Fundamental TC Process?
Jason Dunion, University of Miami/CIMAS-NOAA/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. Thorncroft, C. S. Velden, K. Emanuel, and D. S. Nolan

  9:15 AM
**Intermittently Forced Vortex Rossby Waves**
Amaryllis Cotto, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. E. Willoughby

  9:45 AM
Recording files available
Session 8D
Numerical Modeling V
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Christiane Jablonowski, University of Michigan
  8:00 AM
Some New Techniques for Hurricane Forecast Verification
Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown

  8:15 AM
Construction of Economical Meshes for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting
Martin Baumann, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and V. Heuveline, L. Scheck, and S. C. Jones

  8:30 AM
Impact of Parameter Variations on Tropical Forecasts in a Global Atmospheric Ensemble
Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. A. Ridout, J. McLay, and M. Flatau

  8:45 AM
Extended Predictability of Tropical Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean
James I. Belanger, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster

  9:15 AM
**Monsoonal Influence on the Track Change of Typhoon Morakot (2009)**
Jia Liang, NUIST, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and L. Wu

  9:30 AM
Genesis of Typhoon Fengshen (2008) from Vortex Superposition: PALAU Field Experiment and a Global Cloud-Resolving Simulation
Hiroyuki Yamada, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and T. Nasuno, W. Yanase, R. Shirooka, and M. Satoh

  9:45 AM
Regional Climate Model Simulation of Summer Rainfall over Southeast China
Wan-Ru Huang, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

8:00 AM-10:15 AM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 8B
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change II
Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Matthew D. Eastin, University of North Carolina at Charlotte
  8:00 AM
Observations of inner-core moisture evolution during periods of pre-rapid intensification
Kelly C. Smith, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and M. D. Eastin

  8:15 AM
Impact of Inner-Core Tropical Cyclone Structure on the Potential for Rapid Intensification
Jonathan L. Vigh, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado; and C. M. Rozoff

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/staff/jvigh/vdm/des/

  8:30 AM
Observations of the Inner-Core Structure of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones
Robert Rogers, Hurricane Research Division, AOML, Miami, FL; and P. Reasor, S. Lorsolo, and J. Zhang

  9:00 AM
Examining Trends in Satellite-Detected Overshooting Tops as a Potential Predictor of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification
Sarah A. Monette, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, K. S. Griffin, and C. M. Rozoff

  9:15 AM
Improvements in the probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone rapid intensification resulting from inclusion of satellite passive microwave observations
Christopher M. Rozoff, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, J. Kaplan, A. Wimmers, and J. P. Kossin

  9:30 AM
Improving Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Change Forecasts
Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS, Fort Collins, CO; and J. A. Knaff, A. B. Schumacher, and J. Kaplan

  9:45 AM
Assessing the predictability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification as a function of forecast lead-time using the SHIPS rapid intensification index
John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. M. Rozoff, C. R. Sampson, J. P. Kossin, C. S. Velden, M. DeMaria, and J. A. Knaff

  10:00 AM
**Determining Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change through Balanced Vortex Model Applications**
Christopher J. Slocum, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012


Session
A.M. Coffee Break
Location: Sawgrass Marriott
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 9D
African Weather and Climate I
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State University
  11:00 AM
Driving factors of rainfall variability in western equatorial Africa during boreal spring and autumn
Amin K. Dezfuli, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and S. E. Nicholson

  11:15 AM
Wave activity and convection in equatorial Africa
Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. D. Baum

  11:30 AM
Origin of the Pre-Tropical Storm Debby (2006) African Easterly Wave-Mesoscale Convective System
Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and L. Liu, G. Tang, J. Spinks, and W. Jones

http://mesolab.ncat.edu/publications (web)/

  11:45 AM
A look at the recent drought situation in the Horn of Africa
Doug Klotter, Florida State University, Talllahasss, FL; and S. E. Nicholson and T. Austin

10:30 AM-12:30 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 9A
DYNAMO/CINDY2011 III
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Kunio Yoneyama, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
  10:30 AM
Understanding the Multiscale Structures in the Tropics
Da Yang, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and A. P. Ingersoll

  10:45 AM
Shipboard Operations of the NASA-TOGA Radar in DYNAMO
Steven A. Rutledge, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and T. Lang, N. Guy, B. Bowie, A. Rowe, T. Meyer, E. J. Thompson, O. H. Shieh, A. L. Igel, M. Igel, G. King, N. Gears, M. Watson, J. Gerlach, and W. A. Petersen

  11:00 AM
Aircraft Measurements of the Atmosphere and Upper Ocean During DYNAMO 2011
Qing Wang, NPS, Monterey, CA; and S. S. Chen, D. Khelif, D. P. Jorgensen, C. J. Zappa, A. Bucholtz, and P. Chuang

  11:15 AM
Preliminary Results from a Motion-Stabilized, Scanning, Doppler Lidar, Operated from the RV Revelle During DYNAMO
Wm. Alan Brewer, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and R. J. Alvarez II, A. Weickmann, S. Sandberg, and M. Hardesty

  11:30 AM
In-situ Observed Atmospheric and Oceanic Variations over Seychelle-Chagos Thermocline Ridge during CINDY/DYNAMO
Masaki Katsumata, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and K. Yoneyama, K. Yasunaga, A. Seiki, C. Takahashi, H. Yamada, T. Nasuno, J. Suzuki, R. Shirooka, A. Kurotaki, M. Seki, M. Kimura, K. Tashiro, K. Richards, A. Natarov, A. Tsuboi, N. Takamura, T. Takemi, T. Nishizawa, I. Matsui, N. Sugimoto, T. Ohkura, T. Takano, H. Ueno, O. Tsukamoto, M. Fujiwara, and T. Shinoda

  11:45 AM
Upper Ocean Mixing in the Equatorial Indian Ocean during DYNAMO
Jim N. Moum, College of Oceanic & Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

  12:00 PM
Upper Ocean Observations during DYNAMO in Central Indian Ocean
Ren-Chieh Lien, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and N. H. Chi, B. Ma, and T. B. Sanford

  12:15 PM
Ocean Skin Temperature Variability during Suppressed and Active Phases of an MJO
Christopher J. Zappa, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and S. Brown, A. Bucholtz, S. S. Chen, P. Y. Chuang, D. P. Jorgensen, D. Khelif, and Q. Wang

Recording files available
Session 9B
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change III
Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: George H. Bryan, NCAR
  10:30 AM
Observational estimates of turbulence characteristics in the low-level troposphere of intense hurricanes
Jun A. Zhang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and M. T. Montgomery, F. D. Marks Jr., and S. Lorsolo

  10:45 AM
Impact of vertical wind shear on the Predictability of Tropical Cyclones
Dandan Tao, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang

  11:00 AM
Does the vertical wind shear profile matter to tropical cyclone intensity change?
Yuqing Wang, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI

  11:15 AM
Tropical cyclones in vertical shear: dynamic, kinematic, and thermodynamic aspects of intensity modification
Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery and M. E. Nicholls

 
9B.7
Horizontal Divergence of Typhoon-generated Gravity Waves in the Upper Troposphere and Its Contribution to the Intensity of Typhoon Saomai (2006)

  12:15 PM
On the role of radiation in tropical cyclone dynamics
Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Recording files available
Session 9C
Tropical Cyclone Structure II: Boundary Layer, Eyewall, and Eye structure
Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Jeffrey D. Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
  10:30 AM
Shock-Like Structures in the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer
Gabriel J. Williams, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. K. Taft, B. D. McNoldy, and W. H. Schubert

  10:45 AM
Dynamical Boundary-Layer Depths in Hurricanes Derived from Surface Wind Observations
Eric W. Uhlhorn, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Fischer, B. W. Klotz, and J. Zhang

  11:00 AM
Analysis of the hurricane boundary layer kinematic structure using Doppler radar profiles
Sylvie Lorsolo, University of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and R. Rogers and P. Reasor

  11:15 AM
An Investigation of the Eyewall Boundary Layer and Stability Indices in a Sheared Tropical Cyclone
Klaus P. Dolling, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes

  11:45 AM
Impact of the boundary layer processes on eyewall structure and mesovortices of hurricanes
Ping Zhu, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and K. Menelaou and Z. zhu

  12:00 PM
Convective Bursts, Downdraft Cooling, and Boundary Layer Recovery in a Tropical Storm
John Molinari, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. D. Frank and D. Vollaro

  12:15 PM
The Structure of Descent in the Eye of Tropical Cyclones
Daniel P. Stern, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and F. Zhang

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012


Lunch Break
Location: Sawgrass Marriott

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 10A
GRIP I
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Scott A. Braun, NASA/GSFC
  2:00 PM
Microphysics data obtained by the DC-8 during GRIP in relation to near-coincident radar profiles of deep convection
Edward Zipser, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and A. Heymsfield, G. Heymsfield, R. Rogers, and S. Braun

  2:15 PM
Understanding the Relationships Between Lightning, Cloud Microphysics, and Airborne Radar-Derived Storm Structure during Hurricane Karl (2010)
Brad J. Reinhart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg, A. J. Heymsfield, R. J. Blakeslee, and S. L. Durden

  2:30 PM
GRIP observations with HAMSR of the rapidly intensifying Hurricane Karl
Bjorn H. Lambrigtsen, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and S. T. Brown and A. Behrangi

  2:45 PM
  3:00 PM
Role of large scale forcing and parameterizations on the modeling of Hurricane Karl genesis
Albert Comellas, CIMA Research Foundation, Savona, Italy; and A. Parodi, S. Tanelli, S. L. Durden, and J. Zawislak

Recording files available
Session 10D
African Weather and Climate II
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Kerry H. Cook, The University of Texas
  1:45 PM
Examining the potential impact of the Saharan Air Layer on Atlantic tropical cyclone development with satellite data and ensemble WRF-Chem simulations
Henian Zhang, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and I. N. Sokolik, J. A. Curry, and Y. Deng

  2:00 PM
Climate variability and change in East Africa
Arlene Laing, UCAR/COMET, Boulder, CO; and J. Dudhia, F. Witmer, and A. Gettelman

  2:15 PM
East African Climate Prediction: Shorter Long Rains and Longer Short Rains
Kerry H. Cook, The University of Texas, Austin, TX; and E. K. Vizy

  2:30 PM
A two-dimensional idealized modeling of the West African Monsoon annual cycle
Philippe Peyrillé, Météo-France, Toulouse, France; and J. P. Lafore

  2:45 PM
Real-time monitoring and forecast of synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability of the 2011 West African Monsoon
Romain Roehrig, Météo France, Toulouse, France; and F. Couvreux, E. Poan, J. P. Lafore, O. Ndiaye, A. Diongue, F. Favot, L. Fleury, and J. L. boichard

  3:00 PM

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 10B
Monsoon
Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong
  1:30 PM
Impact of the Tibetan Plateau on the Asian monsoon. I: Formation of the Meiyu front
Simona Bordoni, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and H. S. Park

  1:45 PM
Extratropical-Tropical Interaction during Heavy Rainfall Events “Cloudbursts” Observed over Himalayan Region
Archana Shrestha, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison,, WI; and L. E. Back and G. Tripoli

  2:00 PM
Space time variation of lightning activity over Bangladesh
Mohommad Iqbal Tinmaker, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India

  2:15 PM
Changes in Global Monsoon Precipitation under Global Warming
Pang-chi Hsu, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI; and T. Li, B. Wang, J. J. Luo, H. Murakami, A. Kitoh, and M. Zhao

  2:30 PM
Local summer monsoon precipitation patterns in the Western Ghats
Wendilyn J. Flynn, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, CO; and S. W. Nesbitt

  2:45 PM
Interannual teleconnection between Ural-Siberian blocking and East Asian winter monsoon
Ho Nam Cheung, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and W. Zhou

  3:15 PM
Pulse of WNP Subtropical High Shaping Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone
Bin Wang, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Xiang

  3:30 PM
A polarimetric radar analysis of convection observed during NAME and TiMREX
Angela K. Rowe, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Rutledge

Recording files available
Session 10C
TC Structure III: Size changes, Surface Wind, and Symmetric/Asymmetric Flow
Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University
  1:30 PM
A comparison of three-dimensional versus axisymmetric tropical cyclones in the Cloud Model CM1
John Persing, NPS, Wellington, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, J. C. McWilliams, and R. Smith

  1:45 PM
A Transition Mechanism for the Spontaneous Axisymmetric Intensification of Tropical Cyclones
Yoshiaki Miyamoto, RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, Kobe, Hyogo, Japan; and T. Takemi

  2:00 PM
Tropical-cyclone flow asymmetries induced by a uniform flow revisited
Gerald L. Thomsen, Ludwig Maximilian's University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith and M. T. Montgomery

  2:30 PM
Angular Momentum Transport and Tropical Cyclone Size Changes
Kelvin T. F. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

  2:45 PM
**The Importance of Atmospheric Temperature on the Size and Structure of Tropical Cyclones**
Diana R. Stovern, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. Ritchie

  3:00 PM
A Study on the Synoptic-Dynamical Characteristics of Compact Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific
Delia Yen-Chu Chen, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National Applied Research Laboratories, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. S. Lee and K. K. W. Cheung

  3:15 PM
Evaluation of Numerical Models surface wind field structure during rapid changes TC cases using H*Wind and HEDAS
Bachir Annane, NOAA/AOML- Univ. Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy and X. Zhang

  3:30 PM
Dynamics of Eyewall Contraction: Deep Convective "Left-Movers"
Wallace Hogsett, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and S. R. Stewart

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012


Session
Afternoon Coffee Break
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012


Poster Session P2
Poster Session II: Field Experiments, TC Intensity Change, TC Structure, Extratropical Transition, TC Modeling, and Industry
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
 
Multiscale Analyses of Inland Tropical Cyclone–Midlatitude Jet Interactions: Camille (1969) and Danny (1997)
Matthew S. Potter, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser

 
Characteristics of the TIGGE multimodel ensemble prediction system in representing forecast variability associated with extratropical transition
Julia H. Keller, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany; and S. C. Jones, J. L. Evans, and P. A. Harr

 
Downstream impact of tropical cyclones: mature baroclinic wave scenario
Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and S. C. Jones

 
Analysis of tropical cyclogenesis within the framework of quasi-steady flow boundaries: select PREDICT cases
Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery and M. A. Boothe

 
Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3): Status and Test Flight Results
Scott A. Braun, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and P. A. Newman and M. Vasques

 
A Preliminary Analysis of SMART-R Observations from DYNAMO
Jonathan M. Fliegel, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Schumacher

 
A "Ray" Pattern of Clouds and Precipitation in a Super Cloud Cluster Observed and Simulated during the CINDY2011/DYNAMO Field Campaign
Hiroyuki Yamada, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and T. Nasuno, C. Schumacher, R. Shirooka, M. Katsumata, M. Satoh, and K. Yoneyama

Poster PDF (3.6 MB)

 
MJO Forecasting during DYNAMO Period in Three General Circulation Models
Xiouhua Fu, IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and W. Wang and P. C. Hsu

 
Overview of ARM cloud and precipitation observations during the AMIE/DYNAMO/CINDY field campaign
Sally A. McFarlane, PNNL, Richland, WA; and C. N. Long, J. M. Comstock, C. Sivaraman, N. Bharadwaj, K. L. Johnson, B. Orr, and M. Ritsche

 
Simulating cloud ensembles using large-scale forcing from the DYNAMO sounding array
Shuguang Wang, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel

 
Daily simulation using the 3-dimensional atmosphere-ocean regional coupled model, CReSS-NHOES over the CINDY/DYNAMO observation region
Taro Shinoda, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Aichi, Japan; and M. K. Yoshioka, H. Aiki, M. Kato, L. F. Smedstad, H. Masunaga, K. Yoneyama, M. Katsumata, K. Tsuboki, and H. Uyeda

 
An Extended Data Set of Hurricane Eyewall Sizes and Slopes
James R. Brisbois, Lawrence University, Appleton, WI; and D. S. Nolan and D. P. Stern

 
Development and Validation of a High-Resolution Hurricane Nature Run Using the ECMWF and WRF Models
David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and K. Bhatia, R. M. Atlas, and L. R. Bucci

 
Numerical Simulations and Analysis of Typhoon Morakot (2009) Using the Navy's Mesoscale Prediction Model
Eric Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin, J. R. Moskaitis, J. D. Doyle, M. S. Peng, and R. M. Hodur

 
A numerical simulation of the evolution of the low-level wind speed and rainfall in Hurricane Ivan's (2004) at landfall
Rebecca L. Lanier, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. K. Kimball

 
Sensitivity of Asymptotic Behavior of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Intensification to Parameterizations of the Atmospheric Boundary Mixing
Sara A. Michelson, NOAA/ESRL/PSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. W. Bao

 
Impacts of Surface Roughness Lengths on Typhoon Simulations
Akiyoshi Wada, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and N. Kohno

Manuscript (944.0 kB)

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

 
P2.23
Effects of Turbulence Parameterization on Hurricane Simulations

 
On the use of potential vorticity tendency equations for diagnosing atmospheric dynamics in numerical models
Kevin J. Tory, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; and J. D. Kepert and J. Sippel

Poster PDF (295.3 kB)

 
Energy Flow in a High Resolution 3D Tropical Cyclone Simulation
Morgan E. O'Neill, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel

 
An Ensemble Approach to Examining the Role of Cloud Condensation Nuclei on the Evolution of Idealized Tropical Cyclones
R. J. Maliawco Jr., University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. M. McFarquhar and B. F. Jewett

 
Evolution of Hurricane-like Eyewall Structures using a Divergent, Normal-Mode Spectral Model
Thomas A. Guinn, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL

Manuscript (2.1 MB)

Poster PDF (2.7 MB)

 
Structures of spiral rainbands in numerically simulated tropical cyclones
Yumin Moon, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. S. Nolan

 
Investigating the Factors Responsible for Secondary Eyewall Formation in an Ensemble of High-resolution Hurricane Simulations
Kristen L. Corbosiero, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

 
Investigation of Cloud Representation from Stratocumulus to Deep Convection in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model
Chia-Jung Pi, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and J. L. Li and J. P. Chen

 
Modeling studies of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones using HWRF
Travis Washington, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and S. Chiao

 
The Impacts of Effective Diffusion on the Axisymmetrization Process
Stephen Guimond, NASA / GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. M. Reisner

 
Evolution of mass transport between the eye and eyewall of Hurricane Guillermo (1997)
Matthew D. Eastin, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and P. Reasor

 
On the Asymmetries of Hurricane Cores
David A. Schecter, NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, CO

 
Examining Surface Momentum Balance and Boundary Layer Conditions in Extreme Tropical Cyclones
Bradley W. Klotz, NOAA/AOML - Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn, J. A. Zhang, and M. Fischer

 
Environmental Characteristics of Eyewall Replacement Cycles
Eric Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng and H. C. Kuo

 
The Entropy Budget of Several 2010 Atlantic Hurricanes
Ana Juracic, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and J. P. Dunion

 
A New Parametric Tropical Cyclone Pressure-Wind Profile Model
Vincent T. Wood, NOAA/OAR, Norman, OK; and L. W. White, D. P. Jorgensen, and H. E. Willoughby

Manuscript (330.0 kB)

Poster PDF (1.1 MB)

 
Comparative tropical cyclone core structure climatology from reconnaissance and satellite observations
Joshua Cossuth, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

 
Intensity and Structure Changes During Hurricane Eyewall Replacement Cycles
Matthew Sitkowski, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. P. Kossin, C. M. Rozoff, and J. A. Knaff

 
Revisiting the Relationship Between Eyewall Contraction and Intensification
Daniel P. Stern, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. L. Vigh, D. S. Nolan, and F. Zhang

 
On the low-level inner-core structure in relation to the environmental vertical wind shear
Jun A. Zhang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and R. F. Rogers, P. D. Reasor, J. J. Cione, and E. W. Uhlhorn

 
Influence of Convective Bursts and Electrification on the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Earl 2010
Janel R. Thomas, JCET/Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD

 
The impact of gradient wind imbalance on potential intensity of tropical cyclones
Thomas Frisius, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; and D. Schönemann and J. L. Vigh

 
P2.52
The Rapid Collapse of Hurricane Felicia (2009) near Hawaii

 
An Objective Aid for DoD Base Preparations in Advance of Tropical Cyclones
Charles Sampson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and A. B. Schumacher, J. Knaff, M. DeMaria, E. M. Fukada, C. Sisko, D. P. Roberts, K. A. Winters, and H. M. Wilson

 
Probabilistic Forecasting of US Market Insured Loss
Mark A. Saunders, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and A. S. R. Lea

 
Large-Scale Scope of Damage Prediction Model for Landfalling Hurricanes
Joseph Spain, ImpactWeather, Inc., Houston, TX; and C. Hebert

 
Assessing tropical cyclone flood risk in Australia – Implications for catastrophe modeling
Jason Butke, AIR Worldwide Corp, Boston, MA; and P. J. Sousounis

Manuscript (1.6 MB)

 
Cyclone Yasi storm surge in Australia – Implications for catastrophe modeling
Kevin A. Hill, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and P. J. Sousounis

Manuscript (1.3 MB)

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012


Session
30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Banquet at the Cabana Club
Location: Sawgrass Marriott
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Thursday, 19 April 2012

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 19 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 11A
DYNAMO/CINDY2011 IV
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M University
  8:00 AM
An overview of the NCAR S-PolKa radar operations during DYNAMO
Scott M. Ellis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Vivekanandan, T. M. Weckwerth, R. A. Rilling, J. C. Hubbert, W. C. Lee, R. A. Houze Jr., S. W. Powell, and C. Zhang

  8:15 AM
Indian Ocean Convection as seen by the S-PolKa radar in DYNAMO
Robert A. Houze Jr., Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA

  8:30 AM
The MJO Cloud Population as Seen by TRMM, DYNAMO, and AMIE Radars
Hannah C. Barnes, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr. and S. R. Brodzik

  8:45 AM
In-Situ and W-Band Radar Measurements of Ice Microphysics for Megha-Tropiques validation
Nicolas Viltard, CNRS-UVSQ, Guyancourt, France; and J. Delanoë, A. Schawrtzenböeck, C. Bovalo, C. Caudoux, M. Ceccaldi, R. Dupuy, C. Duroure, J. P. Duvel, E. Fontaine, C. Gourbeyre, N. M. J. Hall, A. Martini, A. Protat, K. Ramage, R. Roca, J. P. Vinson, and A. Bourdon

  9:00 AM
DYNAMO Convective Systems – Insights from Data Provided by the NOAA P-3 Aircraft
David P. Jorgensen, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. S. Chen and Q. Wang

  9:15 AM
Comparisons of simulated and observed mesoscale systems over the Indian Ocean during DYNAMO/AMIE
Scott W. Powell, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze, Jr., A. Kumar, and S. A. McFarlane

  9:30 AM
Model Simulated Equatorial Convection over the Indian Ocean
Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Flatau, T. Jensen, J. Cummings, T. Shinoda, and P. May

  9:45 AM
Vertical Structure and Diabatic Processes of the MJO: A Global Model Evaluation Project
Duane E. Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and X. Jiang, J. Petch, P. K. Xavier, S. Woolnough, and N. P. Klingaman

Recording files available
Session 11C
Convection I
Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Robert Korty, Texas A&M
 
11C.1
Latent heating profiles and the self-amplification of deep convection

  8:30 AM
  8:45 AM
  9:00 AM
Impact of imposed drying on deep convection in a cloud-resolving model
Shuguang Wang, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel

  9:15 AM
**Estimating Vertical Motion Profile Shape within Tropical Weather States**
Zachary Handlos, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and L. E. Back

  9:30 AM
**Initiation of orographic moist convection in the tropics**
Alison D. Nugent, Yale University, New Haven, CT; and R. B. Smith

  9:45 AM
Using the stochastic multicloud model to improve tropical convective parameterization: A paradigm example
Yevgeniy Frenkel, New York University, New York, NY; and A. J. Majda and B. Khouider

8:00 AM-10:15 AM: Thursday, 19 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 11B
ITOP
Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Simon Chang, NRL
  8:00 AM
Coupled Air-Sea Observations of Tropical Cyclones in ITOP
Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Lee and B. Kerns

  8:45 AM
Formation and Recovery of a Cold Wake from Typhoon Fanapi (2010)
Shouping Wang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and H. Jin, P. Black, S. Chen, S. Chen, and L. W. O'Neill

  9:00 AM
Tropical Cyclone – Ocean Interaction in Typhoon Fanapi (2010) during ITOP
Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. L. Sung and P. S. Wang

  9:15 AM
Coupled COAMPS-TC Real-Time Forecasts for the ITOP Experiment
Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Wang, S. Chen, and J. Doyle

  9:45 AM
A Dropwindsonde Analysis of the Thermodynamic and Dynamic Structure and Evolution of STY Megi (2010)
Andrew B. Penny, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. G. Black, R. Creasey, and P. A. Harr

  10:00 AM
Dropsonde Observations of Eyewall Boundary Layer Structure in Super-Typhoons Megi (2010) and Jangmi (2008
Peter G. Black, SAIC/Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and A. B. Penny, R. Creasey, and P. Harr

Recording files available
Session 11D
Tropical Waves I
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Anantha R. Aiyyer, North Carolina State University
 
11D.1
Coupled convective modes in the tropics and intraseasonal oscillation

  8:15 AM
**The Influence of the MJO on Upstream Precursors to African Easterly Waves**
Ghassan J. Alaka Jr., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00232.1

  8:45 AM
Structure and Evolution of Developing and Non-developing African Easterly Waves during NAMMA
Nelsie A. Ramos, Howard University, Washington, DC; and S. D. Aberson and V. Morris

  9:00 AM
Group Velocity of African Easterly Waves
Michael L. Diaz, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC

  9:30 AM
**A convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin wave's impact on African easterly wave activity**
Michael J. Ventrice, SUNY, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft

  9:45 AM
**African Easterly Waves in the Superparametrized Community Atmosphere Model (SP-CAM)**
Rachel McCrary, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 19 April 2012


Session
A.M. Coffee Break
Location: Sawgrass Marriott
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 12A
GRIP II
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Edward J. Zipser, Univ. of Utah
  10:30 AM
Observations of C-band brightness temperatures and ocean surface wind speed and rain rate from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) during GRIP
Timothy L. Miller, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and M. W. James, J. B. Roberts, C. D. Buckley, L. Jones, S. Biswas, C. May, C. S. Ruf, E. W. Uhlhorn, R. Atlas, P. G. Black, and C. M. Albers

  10:45 AM
Results and Lessons Learned from the First Flights of the HIWRAP on the Global Hawk During GRIP
Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Guimond, L. Tian, L. Li, M. Mclinden, M. Perrine, and A. E. Reynolds

  11:00 AM
**Analysis of Hurricane Eye Slope Using Reflectivity Data From Airborne Doppler Radar: Composites and Case Studies**
Andrew Todd Hazelton, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

  11:15 AM
Development of the SMARTS Climatology for Upper Ocean Thermal Structure Estimation
Patrick C. Meyers, Univ. of Maryland, Riverdale Park, MD; and J. K. Brewster and L. K. Shay

  11:30 AM
Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Structure from Conically Scanning Airborne Doppler Radar: IWRAP and HIWRAP
Stephen Guimond, NASA / GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. M. Heymsfield and S. Frasier

Recording files available
Session 12B
Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones I
Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Chris Fogarty, Canadian Hurricane Center
  10:30 AM
Singular Vectors and Perturbation Growth Mechanisms for Barotropic Vortices in Horizontal Shear
Leonhard Scheck, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and S. C. Jones and V. Heuveline

  10:45 AM
  11:00 AM
The Impact of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones on North Pacific Jet Circulations
Andrea A. Lang, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser

  11:15 AM
  11:30 AM
Recurving Tropical Cyclone–Extratropical Flow Interactions and their Influence on the Large-Scale Flow Pattern: A Diagnostic and Modeling Study
Heather M. Archambault, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Harr, R. W. Moore, L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and J. M. Cordeira

  11:45 AM
**A 40-year climatology of extratropical transition in the eastern North Pacific**
Kimberly M. Wood, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie

 
12B.7
Physically-based path clustering of ensemble forecasts for extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones

Recording files available
Session 12D
Tropical Large Scale Circulation and Intraseasonal Variability I
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Adam H. Sobel, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory
  10:30 AM
Cloud-system-resolving large-domain simulations of tropical convection and the MJO
Christopher E. Holloway, University of Reading, Reading, CA; and S. Woolnough and G. Lister

  11:00 AM
Simulations of Walker circulation with sparse space and time superparameterization
Joanna Slawinska, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York, NY; and O. Pauluis, A. J. Majda, and W. W. Grabowski

  11:15 AM
The Deep and Shallow Hadley Circulations
Alex Omar Gonzalez, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

  11:30 AM
A Mesoscale Decomposition of the Tropical Hadley Cell
Justin P. Stachnik, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Schumacher and C. L. Lappen

  11:45 AM
  12:00 PM
Decadal change of tropical precipitation associated with Indo-Pacific zonal oscillation
Jian Liu, Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China; and B. Wang and S. Y. Yim

10:30 AM-12:30 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 12C
Convection II
Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Larissa E. Back, University of Wisconsin- Madison
  10:30 AM
A Persistent Regime of Organized Convection without a Mesoscale Downdraft
Todd P. Lane, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and M. W. Moncrieff

  10:45 AM
Parameterizing Large-Scale Dynamics: A Comparison of WTG and WPG
David M. Romps, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA

  11:00 AM
Lagrangian Analysis of Convective Entrainment
Kyongmin Yeo, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., Berkeley, CA; and D. M. Romps

  11:30 AM
Self-aggregation of moist convection in a conditionally unstable environment
Joerg Schumacher, Ilmenau University of Technology, Ilmenau, Germany; and O. Pauluis and T. Weidauer

  11:45 AM
The effects of aggregated convection in cloud-resolved radiative-convective equilibrium
Marat F. Khairoutdinov, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and K. Emanuel

Manuscript (1.4 MB)

  12:00 PM
Interaction of Convection and Frictional Convergence
Zeljka Fuchs, New Mexico Tech, University of Split, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond and M. J. Herman

  12:15 PM
Linear response functions of two convective parameterization schemes
Michael J. Herman, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and Z. Kuang

12:15 PM-1:30 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2012


Lunch Break
Location: Sawgrass Marriott

1:30 PM-3:15 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 13B
Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones II
Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Heather M. Archambault, NPS
  1:30 PM
Precipitation modulation by the Saint Lawrence River Valley in association with transitioning tropical cyclones
Shawn M. Milrad, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL; and E. H. Atallah and J. R. Gyakum

  1:45 PM
  2:00 PM
On the Sharp Track Change and Rapid Intensification of SuperTyphoon Chanchu (2006)
Yongqing Wang, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing China, Nanjing Jiangsu, 210044, China; and W. Hogsett, D. L. Zhang, and L. Wu

  2:15 PM
Structural characteristics of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) during its extratropical transition: an observational study
Julian F. Quinting, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and S. C. Jones, P. A. Harr, and M. M. Bell

  2:30 PM
Structural characteristics of the core region of T-PARC Typhoon Sinlaku in a vertically sheared environment
Annette M. Foerster, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany; and M. M. Bell, P. A. Harr, and S. C. Jones

  2:45 PM
The Eddy Kinetic Energy Budget for Several Forecast Scenarios of the Extratropical Transition of Typhoon Choi-Wan
Julia H. Keller, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany; and S. C. Jones and P. A. Harr

 
Characteristics of Hurricane Bertha (2008) near Bermuda

1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 13C
Convection III
Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: David M. Romps, Univ. of California
  1:30 PM
Lifecycle of organized convective systems: A Lagrangian perspective
Samson M. Hagos, PNNL, Richland, WA; and S. A. McFarlane and L. R. Leung

  1:45 PM
From Shallow to Deep Convection
Cathy Hohenegger, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and B. Stevens

  2:00 PM
A stochastic model for tropical precipitation and extreme events
Samuel N. Stechmann, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and J. D. Neelin

  2:15 PM
Convective Response to Diurnal Forcing in Weak Temperature Gradient Simulations
Sharon L. Sessions, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond and C. Lopez-Carrillo

  2:30 PM
**The Large-Scale Properties of Tropical Convection**
Jackson Tan, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and C. Jakob

http://users.monash.edu.au/~btan/regimes/details.html

  3:00 PM
**Developing a Simple Numerical Model in Moist Air for Studying Cloud Formation Processes in the Tropics**
Chantawan Noisri, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, Bangmod, Toongkru, Thailand; and R. H. B. Exell and D. Sukawat

Recording files available
Session 13D
Tropical Large Scale Circulation and Intraseasonal Variability II
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Katherine H. Straub, Susquehanna University
  1:30 PM
Nonlinear Dynamics and Regional Variations in the MJO Skeleton
Andrew J. Majda, Courant Institute, New York University, New York, NY; and S. N. Stechmann

  1:45 PM
Multi-scale waves in an MJO background and CMT feedback
Boualem Khouider, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and Y. Han Jr., A. J. Majda, and S. N. Stechmann

  2:30 PM
Does the MJO make ENSO more, not less, predictable?
Atul Kapur, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang

  2:45 PM
**Modulation of the MJO PV Budget by Atmospheric Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves**
Kyle MacRitchie, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

  3:00 PM
Apparent coupling between atmospheric convection and oceanic Kelvin waves
Robert Michael Setzenfand, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

  3:15 PM
**The Formation and Evolution of the 1989 Western North Pacific Subtropical Gyre**
Brian Andrew Crandall, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 13A
IFEX & HFIP I: Ensemble Forecasting and Data Assimilation
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD
  1:30 PM
Prediction of tropical cyclone intensity and track using COAMPS-TC
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur, S. Chen, J. Cummings, E. Hendricks, T. Holt, H. Jin, Y. Jin, C. S. Liou, J. R. Moskaitis, M. S. Peng, P. A. Reinecke, K. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, and S. Wang

  1:45 PM
Creation of a Statistical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction
Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and B. D. McNoldy and M. DeMaria

  2:15 PM
Evaluation of a GFDL hurricane model ensemble forecast system
Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. J. Morin and M. Bender

  2:45 PM
Real-time ensemble prediction and data assimilation of tropical cyclones with COAMPS-TC
P. Alexander Reinecke, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. Hodyss, J. Moskaitas, and J. Doyle

  3:15 PM
Development of a regional hybrid variational/ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system for tropical cyclones
Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and H. Winterbottom, M. Tong, and T. Vukicevic

  3:30 PM
The Experimental HWRF-HEDAS system: Using satellite and airborne observations from GRIP/PREDICT/IFEX to evaluate the model and to assess the impact of data assimilation
Svetla M. Hristova-Veleva, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and S. Gopalakrishnan, T. Vukicevic, Z. S. Haddad, S. D. Aberson, T. Quirino, F. J. Turk, P. P. Li, B. W. Knosp, B. H. Lambrigtsen, S. L. Durden, and S. Tanelli

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2012


Session
Afternoon Coffee Break
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2012


Poster Session P3
Poster Session III: African Climate, Monsoon, Tropical Large Scale, Convection, Tropical Waves, Data Assimilation, Ocean Observations, Air-Sea Interaction
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
 
Improving our knowledge of African weather and climate – Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP)
Caroline Bain, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and R. Graham, C. Senior, D. Rowell, W. Moufouma-Okia, M. Vellinga, and R. Comer

Manuscript (629.1 kB)

 
Mid-21st century changes in extreme events over Northern and Tropical Africa
Edward Vizy, Department of Geological Sciences, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook

Poster PDF (3.6 MB)

 
Vertical distribution of Saharan dust and radiative forcing over the northern tropical Atlantic
Weijie Wang, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and A. Evan

 
On the dynamics of north African squall lines
Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO

 
Determination of Cloud Seeding Potential by using Instability Indices
Foroozan Arkian, Marine Research and Technology Faculty, Tehran North Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran; and H. Hamidi

 
Testing convective transport on short timescales: comparisons with mass divergence and ozone anomaly patterns about high rain events
Toni Mitovski, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada; and I. Folkins, R. Martin, and M. Cooper

 
Bayesian Inference for the Stochastic Multicloud Model
Michèle De La Chevrotière, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and B. Khouider and A. J. Majda

 
Rectification of the Diurnal Cycle Over Small Islands in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium
Timothy W. Cronin, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel

Manuscript (904.8 kB)

Poster PDF (1005.8 kB)

 
Convection-permitting simulations of diurnally forced convection over the Maritime Continent
Muhammad E. Hassim, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and T. P. Lane, S. Caine, S. Webster, M. Black, C. Jakob, and S. C. Sherwood

 
Convectively coupled wave-environment interactions
Samuel N. Stechmann, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and A. J. Majda and D. Skjorshammer

 
Simple models for the diurnal cycle and convectively coupled waves
Yevgeniy Frenkel, Center for Atmosphere Ocean Science and Department of Mathematics, New York University, New York, NY; and A. J. Majda and B. Khouider

 
Intraseasonal modulation of African Easterly Wave activity
Stephanie Leroux, SUNY, University of Albany, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft and J. Cerrato

 
Numerical Simulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis From a Long-lived Easterly Wave
Anantha Aiyyer, North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC; and D. Church

 
Construction and Characterization of Merged Atmospheric-Oceanic Temperature Profiles from Dropsondes and AXBT's during the ITOP Project
Kathryn Young, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Moore, J. Wang, J. Schaffer, P. Harr, E. D'Asaro, and S. Loehrer

 
P3.16
Impact of Air-Sea Interaction on the Genesis of Tropical Incipient Vortex over South China Sea―A Case Study

 
How do anomalous heat fluxes affect the maximum tangential velocity in a tropical cyclone?
Kosuke Ito, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. Ishikawa, Y. Miyamoto, T. Awaji, and C. C. Wu

 
On surface fluxes and tropical cyclone intensification
Eric D. Rappin, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

 
Influence of the interannual variability of tropical cyclones on the western Gulf of Mexico circulation
Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, DF, Mexico; and M. E. Allende-Arandía, A. Mateos-Jasso, and R. Romero-Centeno

 
Is the surface wind asymmetry in a tropical cyclone affected by ocean surface waves?
Jeffrey D. Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

 
Observed Influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool on Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Michael Kozar, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and V. Misra

 
The Thermal Effect of the Tropical Western Pacific on the Interannual Variability of Monsoon Trough Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon Activity over the Northwest Pacific
RongHui Huang, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and L. Wu, T. Feng, and J. Zhang

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

 
The Influence of Monsoon Trough on Tropical Cyclones over Western North Pacific: Role of Tropical Waves
Liang Wu, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and R. Huang and Z. Wen

Manuscript (1.2 MB)

 
Energetic constraints on monsoonal Hadley circulations
Timothy M. Merlis, Princeton University and GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. Schneider, S. Bordoni, and I. Eisenman

 
The Intraseasonal Variability of Precipitable Water Vapor during West African Monsoon
Emmanuel D. Poan, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and R. Roehrig, F. Couvreux, and J. P. Lafore

Poster PDF (3.5 MB)

 
Structure of the Western North Pacific Monsoon Depression
Jodi Beattie, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry

 
Experimental Intraseasonal Forecasting of Asian Summer Monsoon
Xiouhua Fu, IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and W. Wang, J. Y. Lee, and F. Vitart

 
Climatologies of ultra‐low clouds over the southern West African monsoon region and their representation in the Weather Research and Forecasting model WRF
Andreas H. Fink, University of Cologne, Köln, Germany; and R. Schuster, R. van der Linden, J. M. Schrage, C. Akpanya, and C. Yorke

Manuscript (5.2 MB)

Poster PDF (5.9 MB)

 
The Impact of Anomalous Aerosol Heating on the Onset of the Asian Summer Monsoon
Andrew Martin, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti and W. K. M. Lau

 
Application of the isentropic analysis of convective motions for gravity wave filtering in the TWP-ICE IOP 2006 Australian Monsoon
Agnieszka A. S. Mrowiec, NASA GISS / Columbia University, New York, NY; and O. Pauluis, A. M. Fridlind, and A. S. Ackerman

 
Impact of the Tibetan Plateau on the Asian monsoon. II: Seasonal evolution of the South Asian monsoon
Hyo Seok Park, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. Bordoni

 
Evolution of Potential Vorticity as a Sign of MJO Initiation: A Case Study
Jian Ling, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang

 
The Relationship Between Atmospheric Rivers and the MJO
farnaz hosseinpour, new mexico tech, socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond

http://sites.google.com/site/farnazhosseinpourhomepage/

Manuscript (7.9 kB)

Poster PDF (2.4 MB)

 
Investigating the thermodynamic control of the Madden-Julian oscillation using weak temperature gradient approximation
S. Barkidija, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and S. Sessions and Z. Fuchs

 
Seasonal Modulation of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations on Tropical Cyclone Geneses in the Western North Pacific
Ping Huang, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and C. Chou and R. H. Huang

 
A Possible Root Cause of the Equatorial Atlantic Systematic Biases in Global Climate Models
David Zermeno, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang

 
Changes in Western Pacific tropical cyclones associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle
Cheuk Yin Li, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and W. Zhou

Poster PDF (3.5 MB)

 
An Analysis of Central American Gyres
Philippe P. Papin, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. S. Griffin, L. F. Bosart, and R. D. Torn

 
The Tropical Subseasonal Variability Simulated in the NASA GISS General Circulation Model
Daehyun Kim, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and A. H. Sobel, A. D. Del Genio, Y. Chen, S. J. Camargo, M. S. Yao, and M. Kelley

 
The sensitivity of multiple equilibria to sea surface temperature changes in WTG simulations
Stipo Sentic, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and S. Sessions

Manuscript (412.0 kB)

Poster PDF (1.2 MB)

 
Four-year Coupling between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Water Vapor Transport over East Asia
Xiuzhen Li, City University of Hongkong, Hongkong, Hong Kong; and W. Zhou

Manuscript (3.6 MB)

Poster PDF (10.3 MB)

 
Bimodal Representation of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation
Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, Department of Meteorology and IPRC, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang and Y. Kajikawa

 
Precipitation Anomalies in the Deep Tropics Following the Sudden Stratospheric Warming
Usama M. Anber, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, New York, NY; and L. M. Polvani and A. H. Sobel

 
Ensemble Simulation of Rainfall in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) Based on EnKF Data Assimilation
Shih-Chieh Lin, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

 
Tropical cyclone initialization and dynamic adjustment: Sensitivity studies
Eric D. Rappin, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan and S. J. Majumdar

 
Rainfall Simulation of Typhoon Morakot with Controlled Translation Speed Based on EnKF Data Assimilation
Tzu-Hsiung Yen, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and G. Y. Lien

7:30 PM-9:30 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2012

Recording files available
Session S3
Special Evening Session: 75 Years of AEW Research: Historical Perspectives, Recent Advances, and Future Challenges
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chairs: Andreas H. Fink, Univ. of Cologne; Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds
  7:30 PM
To the 75th anniversary of the discovery of African Easterly Waves
Andreas H. Fink, University of Cologne, Köln, Germany

  7:45 PM
Variability of African easterly wave structures and behavior
Chris D. Thorncroft, SUNY, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and G. N. Kiladis

  8:15 PM
**Mesoscale Convective Systems associated with African Easterly Waves**
Matthew A. Janiga, SUNY at Albany, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft

  8:30 PM
Variability of InterTropical Front (ITF) and Mesoscale Convective Weather Systems (MCWSs) over West African Soudano-Sahel Zone
Peter J. Lamb, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. A. Bell and M. I. LeLe

  8:45 PM
The Importance of African Easterly Waves for Dust Emission and Transport
Peter Knippertz, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; and M. C. Todd and A. H. Fink

  9:00 PM
A Review of African Easterly Wave-Cyclogenesis Research and Challenges
Michael T. Montgomery, NPS and NOAA Hurricane Research Division, Monterey, CA

  9:15 PM
AEWs and weather prediction in West Africa
Jean-Philippe Lafore, Météo France, Toulouse, France; and F. Beucher

Friday, 20 April 2012

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 20 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 14A
IFEX & HFIP II: Model Development and Performance
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL
  8:00 AM
Dynamic Initialization for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction
Eric Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng, T. Li, and X. Ge

  8:15 AM
Operational Implementation of High-Resolution Triple-Nested HWRF at NCEP/EMC - A Major Step Towards Addressing Intensity Forecast Problem
Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. C. Kwon, Q. Liu, S. Trahan, Z. Zhang, E. Aligo, C. Kieu, W. Wang, J. Oconnor, R. E. Tuleya, S. Gopalakrishnan, X. Zhang, B. Lapenta, F. D. Marks Jr., and R. L. Gall

  8:30 AM
HWRFV3.2 System: Transition of the High-Resolution, Research Version of HWRF to Operations
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and V. Tallapragada, X. Zhang, S. B. Goldenberg, T. Quirino, K. Yeh, and F. Marks

  8:45 AM
2012 HWRF: Challenges in Bringing a High-Resolution Model to Operations
Sam Trahan, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Zhang, X. Zhang, S. G. Gopalakrishnan, V. Tallapragada, M. Page, and T. Quirino

  9:00 AM
Design of Multiple Moving Nests in Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Modeling System
Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. G. Gopalakrishnan and S. Trahan

  9:15 AM
Extending Operational HWRF Initialization to Triple-nest HWRF System
Qingfu Liu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and X. Zhang, S. Trahan, and V. Tallapragada

  9:30 AM
Benchmarking progress towards the HFIP goals – results from the 2011 HFIP Demo
Christopher L. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, T. L. Fowler, E. Gilleland, P. A. Kucera, L. Nance, K. Newman, and C. Zhou

  9:45 AM
Objective evaluation of 2011 HFIP Stream 1.5 candidates
Louisa Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, T. L. Fowler, E. Gilleland, P. A. Kucera, K. Newman, C. L. Williams, and C. Zhou

Recording files available
Session 14C
Convection IV
Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Todd P. Lane, University of Melbourne
  8:15 AM
Characteristics of Extreme Summer Convection in the Tropical Americas
Manuel D. Zuluaga, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr.

Poster PDF (6.2 MB)

  8:45 AM
Ground-based observations of overshooting convection during the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE)
Muhammad E. Hassim, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and T. P. Lane and P. T. May

  9:45 AM
Tropical Cloud Cluster Variability and Genesis Productivity
Christopher C. Hennon, Univ. of North Carolina at Asheville, Asheville, NC; and P. P. Papin, C. M. Zarzar, and C. N. Helms

Recording files available
Session 14D
Tropical Large Scale Circulation and Intraseasonal Variability III
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Eric D. Maloney, Colorado State University
  8:00 AM
Ocean-atmosphere interaction key aspect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Wan-Ling Tseng, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany; and B. J. Tsuang, N. Keenlyside, H. H. Hsu, and C. Y. Tu

  8:15 AM
An event-by-event assessment of tropical intraseasonal perturbations for general circulation models
Jean Philippe Duvel, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), Paris, France; and H. Bellenger, G. Bellon, and M. Remaud

  9:00 AM
On the Relative Roles of Circumnavigating Waves and Extratropics on the MJO
Pallav Ray, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and T. Li

  9:15 AM
**Local Versus Remote Controls of East Pacific Intraseasonal Variability**
Adam V. Rydbeck, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney

  9:30 AM
The Role of South American Convective Cycles on Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations
Fernando Hirata, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster

8:00 AM-10:15 AM: Friday, 20 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 14B
Tropical Cyclone Targeting and Data Assimilation I
Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
  8:00 AM
Impact of Integrated Satellite Observations on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones: A Case Study
Hui Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Velden, J. Li, S. J. Majumdar, and J. Anderson

  8:15 AM
  8:30 AM
Hourly Assimilation of Enhanced AMVs for Tropical Cyclone Initialization Using a Novel Ensemble Bogus Method
William E. Lewis, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, S. J. Majumdar, and E. D. Rappin

  8:45 AM
The Impact of Assimilating Aircraft Observations in the Tropical Cyclone Core with HEDAS, the HWRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System
Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, T. Vukicevic, K. J. Sellwood, J. F. Gamache, and S. Gopalakrishnan

  9:00 AM
Incremental typhoon-position-oriented sensitivity analysis for targeted observation
Kosuke Ito, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

  9:30 AM
Targeting Coordinated Unmanned Aircraft Observations in Hurricanes
Doug Koch, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and L. DeVries, A. Maki, D. Paley, and S. J. Majumdar

  9:45 AM
Impact of Convection-Permitting Resolution and EnKF Data Assimilation on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
Jordan Schleif, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, F. Kong, and J. S. Whitaker

  10:00 AM
Dynamic Initialization of Hurricanes in the Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model (OLAM)
Robert L. Walko, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar, C. A. Mattocks, R. Avissar, and T. Miyoshi

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Friday, 20 April 2012


Session
A.M. Coffee Break
Location: Sawgrass Marriott
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

10:30 AM-12:30 PM: Friday, 20 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 15A
IFEX & HFIP III: Model Evaluation and Diagnostics
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: James D. Doyle, NRL
  10:30 AM
Can we hope to improve prediction of tropical cyclone intensity?
Frank D. Marks Jr., NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and T. Vukicevic

  10:45 AM
Evaluation methods for tropical cyclone forecasts: Moving beyond basic metrics
Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Gilleland, L. R. Bernardet, and E. Ebert

  11:00 AM
Diagnostics and verification of the tropical cyclone environment in regional models
Brian D. McNoldy, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. D. Musgrave and M. DeMaria

  11:15 AM
  11:30 AM
Evaluating Cloud Microphysical Parameterizations in COAMPS-TC for Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Prediction
Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and G. Thompson, S. Wang, J. Nachamkin, J. Doyle, R. Hodur, T. R. Holt, J. R. Moskaitis, and Q. Zhao

  11:45 AM
Hurricane WRF (HWRF) rapid intensification: verification and diagnostics
Shaowu Bao, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and L. R. Bernardet and M. K. Biswas

  12:00 PM
HWRF sensitivity to variations in physical parameterizations
Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. R. Bernardet

Recording files available
Session 15C
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change IV
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS
  10:30 AM
Another Look at the Use of Maximum Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones
Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria and J. Knaff

  11:00 AM
Relationship of Environmental Relative Humidity with Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification Rate
Hui Su, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and L. Wu, J. T. Shen, R. G. Fovell, B. H. Kahn, S. Hristova-Veleva, B. Lambrigtsen, and E. Fetzer

  11:15 AM
Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Tropical Cyclones: Past, Present, and Future
Owen H. Shieh, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang, M. Fiorino, and M. E. Kucas

  11:45 AM
Analysis of Interaction of Three Typhoons through 3-D Vorticity Tubes
Zhiying Ding, Pacific Typhoon Research Center, KLME, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

  12:00 PM
Cyclone Fences around Humberto (2001)
Gary M. Barnes, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and K. P. Dolling

  12:15 PM
An Observational Study of Tropical Cyclone Spin-Up in Supertyphoon Jangmi (2008) and Hurricane Georges (1998)
Neil Thomas Sanger, Air Force Weather, Barksdale Air Force Base, LA; and M. T. Montgomery, R. K. Smith, and M. M. Bell

10:30 AM-12:45 PM: Friday, 20 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 15B
Tropical Large Scale Circulation and Intraseasonal Variability IV
Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: George N. Kiladis, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
  10:30 AM
Oscillations in Ocean and Land Heating
Peter Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and V. Toma, H. M. Kim, and C. D. Hoyos

  10:45 AM
Inertial Instability Criterion over the Indian Ocean
Violeta Toma, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. Webster

  11:00 AM
The Response of the effective static stability in the subtropics to MJO-induced tropical diabatic heating
Hyo Seok Park, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. Bordoni

  11:15 AM
Interactions Between Local Atmospheric Vertical Structures and the Madden-Julian Oscillation
James J. Benedict, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. H. Sobel, E. D. Maloney, D. Kim, and D. M. Frierson

  11:30 AM
Initiation and Multi-scale Interaction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Tim Li, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI; and P. C. Hsu and C. B. Zhao

  11:45 AM
Initiation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Multiscale Structure Viewpoint
Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, Department of Meteorology and IPRC, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI

  12:00 PM
MJO initiation (or is it intensification?)
Katherine H. Straub, Susquehanna University, Selinsgrove, PA

  12:15 PM
An Indo-Pacific alternation of the boreal winter MJO
Hugo Bellenger, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques, Paris, France; and J. P. Duvel

Recording files available
Session 15D
Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Prediction
Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC
  10:30 AM
**An Intraseasonal Model for the Prediction of Atlantic and East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis**
Stephanie A. Slade, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. D. Maloney

  10:45 AM
Influences of Large-Scale Climate on Whether Hurricanes Make Landfall in the United States
Chunzai Wang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and H. Liu, S. K. Lee, and R. Atlas

  11:00 AM
  11:15 AM
Multilevel modeling for seasonal hurricane prediction
Robert E. Hodges, Department of Geography, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

  11:30 AM
A simplified early August Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction scheme
Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

  11:45 AM
  12:00 PM
Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones in the ECMWF 32-day Ensemble Prediction System
Hsiao-Chung Tsai, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry and M. S. Jordan

Manuscript (452.4 kB)

  12:15 PM
Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone by GFDL's 25-km High-Resolution Global Model
Jan-Huey Chen, NOAA GFDL / Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin

  12:30 PM
Extended-range seasonal forecasts for the North Atlantic and North Pacific TCs with a hybrid dynamical-statistical model
Hye-Mi Kim, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. Webster and E. Christ

12:30 PM-1:45 PM: Friday, 20 April 2012


Lunch Break
Location: Sawgrass Marriott

1:45 PM-2:00 PM: Friday, 20 April 2012


Plenary Session
Max Eaton Award Announcement
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Brian Tang, NCAR

2:00 PM-3:30 PM: Friday, 20 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 16D
Ocean Observations & Air-Sea Interaction
Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Mark Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD
  2:00 PM
Experimental Deployment of AXBTs during Operational Hurricane Reconnaissance Flights
Elizabeth R. Sanabia, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and P. G. Black, J. L. Kerling, S. Chen, and J. Cummings

  2:15 PM
An Upper Ocean Thermal Field Metrics Dataset
James E. Peak, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. R. Sampson, J. Cummings, J. A. Knaff, M. DeMaria, and W. H. Schubert

  2:45 PM
Spatial variation of surface drag coefficient in tropical cyclones
Mark Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Tallahassee, FL; and L. Holthuijsen and J. Pietrzak

  3:00 PM
Rain modification of scatterometer radar cross section due to changes in surface roughness
Mark A. Bourassa, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and D. E. Weissman

2:00 PM-3:45 PM: Friday, 20 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 16A
Tropical Waves II
Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Paul E. Roundy, SUNY
  2:00 PM
On the role of transitioning weather states in the initiation of African easterly waves
Ademe Mekonnen, North Carolina A & T State University, Greensboro, NC; and W. B. Rossow

  2:15 PM
African Easterly Wave variability in present and future climate simulations
R. J. Cornforth, NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and K. I. Hodges and B. J. Hoskins

  2:30 PM
Equatorial Waves in High-Resolution Satellite Observations and Reanalysis Products
M. Joan Alexander, NorthWest Research Associates, CoRA office, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ortland and J. E. Kim

  2:45 PM
Characterizing the higher-frequency variability within the MJO convective envelope
Stephanie Leroux, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and J. Dias, G. Kiladis, and S. N. Tulich

  3:00 PM
Leading modes of synoptic scale convective activity over the west Pacific warm pool
George Kiladis, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO

  3:15 PM
An object-approach to detect convectively coupled equatorial waves
Juliana Dias, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and S. N. Tulich and G. Kiladis

  3:30 PM
Cloud-resolving simulations of the ITCZ and tropical waves
Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and D. S. Nolan

Recording files available
Session 16B
Tropical Cyclone Targeting and Data Assimilation II
Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State University
  2:00 PM
A Dynamical Initialization Scheme for Real-time Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones Using the WRF Model
Dong-Hyun Cha, International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Wang

  2:15 PM
Recent Advances in Vortex-Scale Data Assimilation using NOAA/AOML/HRD's HWRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS)
Altug Aksoy, University of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. Lorsolo, S. D. Aberson, T. Vukicevic, and K. Sellwood

  2:30 PM
Short-term dynamic forecast bias and its impact on vortex scale data assimilation
Tomislava Vukicevic, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, S. Aberson, K. Sellwood, and F. Marks

  2:45 PM
Improving global and regional high resolution hurricane forecasts using the hybrid variational-ensemble data assimilation
Xuguang Wang, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. Lei, J. S. Whitaker, Y. Li, and M. Xue

  3:00 PM
  3:15 PM
Data Assimilation Studies on Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) Using the WRF-LETKF System
Takemasa Miyoshi, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Kunii

  3:30 PM

2:00 PM-4:00 PM: Friday, 20 April 2012

Recording files available
Session 16C
Tropical Large Scale Circulation and Intraseasonal Variability V
Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
Chair: Peter. J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology
  2:00 PM
Potential Vorticity during MJO Initiation
Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. Ling

  2:15 PM
Observational Analysis of the Multiscale Dynamics in the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Wen-Wen Tung, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and J. Gao

  2:30 PM
The Analysis of DYNAMO Precipitation in TRMM and in Coupled COAMPS Using the EOF Based “Mesoscale MJO Index”
Maria K. Flatau, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen, T. Jensen, T. Shinoda, and J. Cummings

  2:45 PM
Aerosol, Cumulus Congestus, and Madden-Julian Oscillation
Xiaowen Li, GESTAR/Morgan State University and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. Tao

  3:00 PM
Is the tropical atmosphere in quasi-equilibrium?
Taotao Qian, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. Lin and T. Shinoda

  3:15 PM
Evaluation of Tropical Convection and Radiation for 20th Century IPCC AR 4th and 5th Simulations using Multi-sensors
Jui-Lin F. Li, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser, G. L. Stephens, W. T. Chen, B. Guan, and T. L. Kubar

  3:30 PM
Sensitivity of a Coupled Atmospheric-Hydrologic Probabilistic Forecast Scheme of South Asia Valleys
Kristofer Shrestha, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster and V. Toma

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Friday, 20 April 2012


Session
Afternoon Coffee Break
Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology