30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session

Registration begins

Location: Champions Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session

Registration Continues Through Friday April 20

Location: Champions Desk (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session 1B

Historical Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones I

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Greg J. Holland, NCAR

8:00 AM

1B.1

Background and Motivations for the Saffir / Simpson Scale

Robert Simpson, Retired, Washington, DC

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

1B.2

Hurricane Andrew 20 years later: What have we learned?

Timothy P. Marshall, Haag Engineering Co., Irving, TX; and K. Gilvary and J. Kestner

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

8:45 AM

1B.3

Are Atlantic basin tropical cyclone intensity forecasts improving?

Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA

9:00 AM

1B.4

Global Tropical Cyclone Climatology using IBTrACS

Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC; and J. P. Kossin, K. R. Knapp, and P. A. Hennon

Recorded Presentation

Handout (11.4 MB)

9:15 AM

1B.5

How ‘Good' are the Best Tracks? - Estimating Uncertainty in the Atlantic Hurricane Database

Christopher Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1B.6

Inter-comparison of climatological TC winds and pressures in the Western North Pacific

Kenneth R. Knapp, NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC, Asheville, NC; and J. A. Knaff and C. R. Sampson

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1B.7

Shifts in Typhoon Tracks over the western North Pacific during the 20th century based on the recovery of historical data

Hisayuki Kubota, Research Institute for Global Change/ Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, Japan; and J. C. L. Chan, J. Matsumoto, and E. Ginn

Recorded Presentation

Session 1C

Tropical Cyclone Genesis I

Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Paul Reasor, NOAA

8:00 AM

1C.1

SST and Vortex Structure Observed Prior to the Formation of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Rachel G. Mauk, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

1C.2

Planetary Vorticity Effects on Cyclogenesis

Michael G. McGauley, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

1C.3

Global Omega Equation: Its Derivation and Use in Tropical Cyclogenesis

John F. Dostalek, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO; and W. H. Schubert and M. DeMaria

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

1C.4

The importance of low deformation vorticity in tropical cyclone formation

Kevin J. Tory, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and R. A. Dare, N. E. Davidson, J. L. McBride, and S. Chand

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (233.3 kB)

9:00 AM

1C.5

Tropical Cyclogenesis and Vertical Shear in a Moist Boussinesq Model

Leslie M. Smith, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and Q. Deng and A. J. Majda

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1C.6

**The Effects of Gap Wind Induced Vorticity on Tropical Cyclogenesis**

Heather M. Holbach, Florida State University; and M. A. Bourassa

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.7 MB)

9:30 AM

1C.7

Streamwise Evolution of African Easterly Waves

Anantha Aiyyer, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and M. Diaz

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1C.8

What Controls the Decadal Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency over the Western North Pacific?

Jinhua Yu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Techonology, Nanjing, China; and Y. Wang

Recorded Presentation

Session 1D

Tropical Cyclones, Land Interaction, and Landfall I

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Robbie Berg, NOAA

8:00 AM

1D.1

Observed Near-Surface Wind Flow Characteristics of Gulf Coast Hurricanes: 2004-2008

Ian M. Giammanco, Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety, Richburg, SC; and J. A. Balderrama, J. L. Schroeder, F. J. Masters, and P. J. Vickery

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (729.2 kB)

8:15 AM

1D.2

Mapping of Low-Level Hurricane Winds in Hurricane Rita by integrating Fine-Scale Radar and Tower Data

Joshua Wurman, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and K. A. Kosiba, F. Masters, and P. Robinson

8:30 AM

1D.3

Examination of the coastal transition zone of Hurricane Frances (2004)

Brian D. Hirth, Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX; and J. L. Schroeder

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.0 MB)

8:45 AM

1D.4

Characterizing momentum transport, dissipative heating, and turbulence structure in the surface layer of landfalling hurricanes using high resolution tower observations

Jonathan Furst, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and P. Zhu and J. Zhang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (342.0 kB)

9:00 AM

1D.5

Open terrain gust factors in landfalling hurricanes based on mobile tower observations

Juan-Antonio Balderrama, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL; and F. Masters and C. Miller

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (166.8 kB)

9:15 AM

1D.6

Fine-scale Dual-Doppler analysis of the boundary layer in Hurricane Frances (2004)

Karen A. Kosiba, Center for Severe Weather Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Wurman and P. Robinson

9:30 AM

1D.7

Structure of mesovortices in Hurricane Ike (2008) derived from dual-Doppler analyses from ground-based radars

Stephanie Mullins, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and K. Knupp

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1D.8

Mesoscale analysis of a concentrated heavy rain event using an adaptable mesonet during the landfall of Tropical Storm Ida (2009)

Kevin R. Knupp, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and P. Ray, S. K. Kimball, and J. L. Schroeder

Session 1A

Tropical Cyclone Concentric Eyewalls and Replacement

Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Christopher M. Rozoff, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin

8:00 AM

1A.1

On the dynamics of the secondary eyewall genesis in Hurricane Wilma (2005)

Konstantinos Menelaou, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and P. M. K. Yau and Y. Martinez

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

1A.2

Impact of numerical grid spacing and time step on Vortex Rossby-Waves in secondary eyewall formation in hurricane Wilma (2005)

Jonathan Gadoury, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and M. K. Yau

Recorded Presentation

Handout (2.1 MB)

8:30 AM

1A.3

Concentric Eyewall Formation in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) – Part I: Axisymmetric Processes

Yi-Hsuan Huang, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and M. T. Montgomery and C. C. Wu

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

1A.4

Concentric Eyewall Formation in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) – Part II: Further Examination of Axisymmetric and Asymmetric Processes

Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. H. Huang and M. T. Montgomery

9:00 AM

1A.5

Objective Diagnosis of the Eyewall Replacement Cycle in Typhoon Sinlaku

Elizabeth R. Sanabia, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and N. P. Celone and C. M. Fine

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

1A.6

Vortex Rossby Waves and Secondary Eyewall Formation in a High-resolution Simulation of Hurricane Katrina (2005)

Kristen L. Corbosiero, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and S. Abarca and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

1A.7

Secondary eyewall formation in high-resolution simulations

Sergio Abarca, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. T. Montgomery and K. L. Corbosiero

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

1A.8

Concentric Eyewall Typhoon characteristics at Western North Pacific

Hung-Chi Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. T. Yang and C. H. Liu

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (902.4 kB)

10:00 AM

1A.9

Thermodynamic Evolution of the Hurricane Inner-Core during Eyewall Replacement Cycles and Ramifications of the Relict Wind Maximum

Matthew Sitkowski, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. P. Kossin, C. M. Rozoff, and J. A. Knaff

Recorded Presentation

Session

A.M. Coffee Break

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session 2B

Historical Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones II

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Christopher W. Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center

10:30 AM

2B.1

A Reanalysis of the 1944-1953 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons - The First Decade of Aircraft Reconnaissance

Andrew B. Hagen, University of Miami/Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), Miami, FL; and D. Strahan-Sakoskie and C. Luckett

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.2 MB)

10:45 AM

2B.2

Re-analysis of the Eastern North Pacific HURDAT

Todd B. Kimberlain, DOC, Miami, FL, FL

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2B.3

A reconstruction of landfalling tropical cyclones on the Pacific coast of Mexico from 1850 to 1949

Graciela B. Raga, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera/Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and B. Bracamontes-Cevallos, L. M. Farfán, and R. Romero-Centeno

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (694.0 kB)

Handout (6.0 MB)

11:15 AM

2B.4

**Global Identification of Previously Undetected Tropical Cyclone Candidates in NOAA/CIRES 20th Century Reanalysis Data**

Ryan Truchelut, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (565.2 kB)

11:30 AM

2B.5

Improving Counts of Global Intense Tropical Cyclone Events Back to 1970

Adam S. R. Lea, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

2B.6

An Inactive Period of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1998-2011

Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and K. S. Liu

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

2B.7

New normal? Historical context of recent global tropical cyclone inactivity

Ryan Maue, WeatherBELL Analytics, Tallahassee, FL

Recorded Presentation

Session 2A

Tropical Cyclone Operational Issues I

Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Lixion A. Avila, NWS/NHC

10:30 AM

2A.1

The 2011 Columbus Day Weekend Storm: Overcoming Challenges in Diagnosing a Rapidly Strengthening Maritime Low Pressure System and Communicating the Associated Warning Message

Matthew Volkmer, NOAA/National Weather Service Forecast Office, Melbourne, FL; and D. S. Kelly, A. Cristaldi, P. F. Blottman, P. Glitto, R. Lascody, J. Pendergrast, A. Moses, T. Sedlock, R. Wimmer, M. Bragaw, A. Bowen, and D. Sharp

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (561.7 kB)

10:45 AM

2A.2

A Study in Contrast - Connecticut and Florida and Public Awareness for Impending Tropical Cyclones

Paul Ruscher, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2A.3

Cyclone Type Analysis and Forecasting: A Need to Re-visit the Issue

John L. Beven II, NOAA/AOML/NHC/TPC, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (476.3 kB)

11:15 AM

2A.4

Communicating objective guidance for tropical cyclone forecasting – Evolving operational practices and techniques

Chris Fogarty, EC, Dartmouth, NS, Canada

http://www.novaweather.net/Uploads/AMS_30th_Tropical_Ponte_Vedra/2Ap4.PPT

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2A.5

Evaluation of Operational Storm Surge Predictions from the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Model for Hurricane Ike (2008)

Jessica L. Schauer, NOAA, Miami, FL; and R. Berg, C. Forbes, and J. Rhome

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

2A.6

Initial Tests of an Automated Operational Storm Surge Prediction System for the National Hurricane Center

Cristina Forbes, National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and J. Rhome

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1008.7 kB)

12:00 PM

2A.7

Analysis of a Bathymetric Storm Surge Scale

Patrick J. Fitzpatrick, Geosystems Research Institute, Stennis Space Center, MS; and Y. Lau

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

2A.8

The Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT): Transitioning Research to Operations

Shirley T. Murillo, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. G. Jiing and C. W. Landsea

Recorded Presentation

Session 2C

Tropical Cyclone Genesis II

Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD

10:30 AM

2C.1

Tropical Cycle Genesis Prediction Index

Melinda S. Peng, NRL, Monterey, CA; and B. Fu, T. Li, M. E. Kucas, and J. Darlow

10:45 AM

2C.2

Tropical Cyclogenesis Hypothesis Testing Using Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis

Rahul B. Mahajan, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2C.3

Determining Tropical Cyclogenesis in the eastern North Pacific Using Remotely Sensed Data

Lesley A. L. Mazzarella, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

2C.4

Global and Basin Tropical Cyclone Frequency Indices

Cindy Bruyere, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. Holland

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

2C.5

Numerical Study on the Formation of Typhoon Ketsana (2003) in the Western North Pacific

Guoping Zhang, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and K. K. W. Cheung and X. Lu

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (621.0 kB)

11:45 AM

2C.6

Genesis of Hurricane Julia (2010) from an African Easterly Wave: Wave Structure and Possible Triggers

Stefan Cecelski, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. L. Zhang

12:00 PM

2C.7

Genesis of Tropical Storm Debby (2006) from an African Easterly Wave

Lin Zhu, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and D. L. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

2C.8

Latent Heating and Cooling Rates in Developing and Non-developing Tropical Disturbances during TCS-08: Radar-equivalent Retrievals from Mesoscale Numerical Model Simulations and ELDORA Observations

Myung-Sook Park, UNIST, Ulsan, Korea, Republic of (South); and A. B. Penny, R. L. Elsberry, B. J. Billings, and J. D. Doyle

Session 2D

Tropical Cyclones, Land Interaction, and Landfall II

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Sytske K. Kimball, Univ. of South Alabama

10:30 AM

2D.1

**Numerical Study on the Development of Asymmetric Convection during Tropical Cyclone Landfall**

Yubin Li, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and K. K. W. Cheung

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (220.4 kB)

10:45 AM

2D.2

mesoscale features and the lightning distribution in tyohoon morakot after it passed Taiwan

Ben Jong-Dao Jou, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and B. leon

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

2D.3

Effects of topography on TC tracks and precipitation distributions over land along the South China Coast

Kit Ying Fung, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

2D.4

The influence of Tropical cyclone structure on eyewall evolution simulation of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) crossing Taiwan

Cheng-Hsiang Chih, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. H. Chou

11:30 AM

2D.5

On the Slowdown of Landfall Typhoon by Topography Phase Locked Convections

Hung-Chi Kuo, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. H. Hsu and R. G. Fovell

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (810.3 kB)

11:45 AM

2D.6

Effect of topography on Tropical cyclone movement

Chi-Kit Tang, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and J. C. L. Chan

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.7 MB)

12:00 PM

2D.7

Potential Vorticity Budget of Typhoon Nari (2001) at Landfall

Ming-Jen Yang, National Central University, Chung-Li, Taiwan; and P. H. Lin

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

2D.8

Influence of Topography on Tropical Cyclone Track - Idealized Simulations

Tsung-Han Li, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Location: Sawgrass Marriott

Session 3B

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change I

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

1:30 PM

3B.1

Global Tropical Cyclones and Climate: Current Signal and Future Change

Greg Holland, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. Bruyere

Recorded Presentation

3B.2

Arabian Sea tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols

2:00 PM

3B.3

Space-Time Statistical Models for Hurricane Climate and Change

James B. Elsner, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. H. Jagger

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3B.4

A Spatial Framework for Comparing GCM-Generated Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Sarah E. Strazzo, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. Elsner

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3B.5

**Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclone Tracks**

Angela J. Colbert, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. J. Soden

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (279.4 kB)

2:45 PM

3B.6

Increasing Tropical Cyclone Precipitation due to Global Warming

Eric K. W. Ng, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan and W. R. Huang

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

3B.7

Local and Remote Influences on Atlantic Hurricane Potential Intensity

Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and M. Ting and Y. Kushnir

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3B.8

Will Increases in CO₂ Amounts During This Century Lead to Significant Changes in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity?

William M. Gray, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1012.1 kB)

Session 3C

Tropical Cyclone Genesis III

Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

1:30 PM

3C.1

Large Scale Circulation Patterns Favorable to Tropical Cyclogenesis over the Western North Pacific

Tao Feng, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and G. Chen and X. Shen

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

3C.2

Mesoscale Features of Tropical Cyclone Formations Associated with the Trade Wind Surges in the Western North Pacific

Lung-Yao Chang, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National Applied Research Laboratories, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. S. Lee

2:00 PM

3C.3

The Influence of Gap Wind Events on the Monsoon Trough and Implications for Eastern North Pacific Cyclogenesis

Andrew S. Levine, NOAA/NHC, Miami, FL

2:15 PM

3C.4

The Comparison of Developing and Non-developing Waves during the NAMMA Experiment

Yi-Chin liu, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA; and S. H. Chen

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3C.5

**Early development of African Easterly Waves in the Eastern Atlantic**

Alan Brammer, SUNY, Albany,, NY; and C. Thorncroft

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.6 MB)

2:45 PM

3C.6

**African Easterly Wave Convection and Tropical Cyclogenesis: A Lagrangian Perspective**

Kenneth D. Leppert II, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and D. J. Cecil

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (140.5 kB)

3:00 PM

3C.7

Cloud Clusters and Tropical Cyclogenesis: Large Scale Environment of Developing and Nondeveloping Systems

Brandon W. Kerns, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3C.8

**Quantifying the Role of Tropospheric Relative Humidity on the Development of Tropical Cyclones**

Rosimar Rios-Berrios, SUNY - University at Albany, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (572.4 kB)

Session 3A

Tropical Cyclone Operational Issues II

Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Michael J. Brennan, NHC

1:30 PM

3A.1

Extended-range Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasts at the National Hurricane Center

Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and T. B. Kimberlain and J. P. Cangialosi

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

3A.2

Subjective methods for assessing tropical cyclogenesis and intensity change at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center

James Darlow, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, Hawaii; and M. E. Kucas

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (334.7 kB)

2:00 PM

3A.3

Evaluating Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasts from Four Global Numerical Models

Daniel J. Halperin, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and H. E. Fuelberg, R. E. Hart, P. Sura, J. Cossuth, R. Truchelut, and R. J. Pasch

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (412.8 kB)

2:15 PM

3A.4

A Comprehensive (Tropical) Cyclone Tracker - Application to Global Model TC Genesis and Intensity Prediction

Mike Fiorino, CIRES, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3A.5

An Investigation of Metrics Used to Determine the Center of Model Tropical Cyclones

David R. Ryglicki, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and R. Hart

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

3A.6

Computing and Understanding Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

3A.7

A New Approach to Diagnose Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction Error

Munehiko Yamaguchi, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and K. Aonashi

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (202.1 kB)

3:15 PM

3A.8

Relationships between tropical cyclone track and intensity model initialization adjustments and early model forecast errors

Richard D. Knabb, The Weather Channel Companies, Atlanta, GA

3:30 PM

3A.9

**Predicting the Performance of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Using Environmental Parameters**

Kieran Bhatia, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (388.5 kB)

Session 3D

Numerical Modeling I: TC Initialization, Sensitivity and Predictability Studies

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Ryan Torn, SUNY / Univ. at Albany

1:30 PM

3D.1

Effects of Parameterized Diffusion on Simulated Hurricanes

Richard Rotunno, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and G. H. Bryan

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

3D.2

Choosing a boundary-layer parameterisation for tropical cyclone modelling

Jeffrey D. Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (539.0 kB)

2:00 PM

3D.3

The use of gamma distributions for characterizing cloud hydrometeor size distributions in hurricane models: Uncertainties and implications

Greg M. McFarquhar, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and T. L. Hsieh and M. Freer

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

3D.4

Sensitivity of the NOAA Hurricane Research and Forecasting Model (HWRF) to Horizontal and Vertical Diffusion

J. W. Bao, NOAA/ESRL/PSD, Boulder, CO; and S. Gopalakrishnan, S. A. Michelson, F. D. Marks Jr., and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

3D.5

Community Support and Testing of the Hurricane WRF model at the Developmental Testbed Center

Ligia Bernardet, OAR, Boulder, CO; and S. Bao, T. Brown, M. K. Biswas, D. Stark, and L. Carson

http://dtcenter.org/HurrWRF

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (312.7 kB)

2:45 PM

3D.6

Tropical Cyclone Prediction: Initial Condition Sensitivity

Richard M. Hodur, SAIC, Medford, OR; and J. D. Doyle, C. S. Liou, and K. D. Sashegyi

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

3D.7

Impacts of Turbulence Length Scales on Numerical Forecasts of Hurricane Earl (2010)

Yongsheng Chen, York Univ., Toronto, ON, Canada; and S. Kurkute

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

3D.8

Understanding Hurricane Intensity Predictability Limits and Model Error Using two Different Ensemble Techniques

Falko Judt, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. S. Chen

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

16B.6

Storm-Centered Assimilation using an Ensemble Kalman Filter

Erika L. Navarro, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and G. J. Hakim

Recorded Presentation

Session

Afternoon Coffee Break

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session 4A

Tropical Cyclone Operational Issues III

Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Dr. Richard Pasch, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/NHC

4:00 PM

4A.1

An update on scatterometer data exploitation at NHC

Rick Danielson, UCAR, Miami, FL; and M. J. Brennan, H. D. Cobb III, and B. W. Stiles

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

4A.2

Analysis of the impact of supplemental dropwindsonde and rawinsonde observations on model track forecasts of Hurricane Irene (2011)

Michael J. Brennan, NHC, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar, K. L. Howard, and V. Tallapragada

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

4A.3

Assimilating HDOB Data in COAMPS® NAVDAS for Hurricane Earl

Patricia M. Pauley, NRL, Monterey, CA; and H. M. Holbach, K. D. Sashegyi, C. M. Amerault, D. Tyndall, and R. H. Langland

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4A.4

Recent Updates to FNMOC Tropical Cyclone Forecast Products

Charles E. Skupniewicz, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and C. L. Dickerman

5:00 PM

4A.5

2012 Upgrades to the Operational GFDL/GFDN Hurricane Model

Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. Marchok and R. Tuleya

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

4A.6

Tropical Cyclone Predictions from the Met Office and ECMWF Global Models – Relative Performance and Error Diagnosis

Julian T. Heming, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.5 MB)

5:30 PM

4A.7

Operational implementation of ensemble-based "dynamical"

Thierry Dupont, RSMC La Réunion, Météo-France, Sainte Clotilde CEDEX 09, France; and M. Plu, P. Caroff, and G. Faure

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (327.5 kB)

5:45 PM

4A.8

Making Use of Operational Model Forecast Skill in a Real-Time Setting

Peter S. Dailey, AIR-Worldwide, Boston, MA; and I. Dima

Session 4B

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change II

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: James B. Elsner, Florida State University

4:00 PM

4B.1

Analysis of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Indices for Climate Change using the HIRAM model

Suzana J. Camargo, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and M. K. Tippett, A. H. Sobel, G. A. Vecchi, M. Zhao, and I. M. Held

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

4B.2

Tropical cyclone genesis factors in simulations of the last glacial maxium

Robert Korty, Texas A&M, College Station, TX; and S. J. Camargo and J. Galewsky

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

4B.3

Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Projected by the New High-Resolution MRI-AGCM

Hiroyuki Murakami, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and Y. Wang, M. Sugi, and A. Kitoh

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4B.4

TC-permitting GCM simulations of hurricane frequency response to sea surface temperature anomalies projected for the late 21st century

Ming Zhao, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and I. M. Held

5:00 PM

4B.5

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change in a High Resolution General Circulation Model, HiGEM

Ray Bell, NCAS-Climate, Reading, Berkshire, United Kingdom; and P. L. Vidale, K. I. Hodges, and J. Strachan

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~df019697/

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (710.5 kB)

5:15 PM

4B.6

Dynamically Downscaled Simulations of Tropical Cyclones - A Multi-Model Approach for the Australian Region

Sally Lavender, CSIRO, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; and D. Abbs, T. Rafter, and K. Walsh

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

4B.7

Climate Change Impact on Typhoon Affecting Taiwan Using MRI 20-km Mesh AGCM Time Slice Simulations

Cheng-Ta Chen, National Taiwan Normal Univ., Taipei, Taiwan; and T. P. Tzeng, C. T. Cheng, and A. Kitoh

Recorded Presentation

Session 4C

Tropical Cyclone Genesis IV

Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kevin J. Tory, Bureau of Meteorology

4:00 PM

4C.1

The role of vertical shear orientation on tropical cyclogenesis

Eric D. Rappin, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

4:15 PM

4C.2

Tropical Cyclogenesis in Wind Shear: Climatological Relationships and Physical Processes

David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and M. G. McGauley

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.6 MB)

4:30 PM

4C.3

Influence of Environmental Water Vapor on Tropical Cyclogenesis

Derek Ortt, ImpactWeather, Inc., Houston, TX; and K. Smith

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (579.9 kB)

4:45 PM

4C.4

The Thermodynamic Environment of a Mid-Level Vortex and Tropical Cyclogenesis

David Raymond, New Mexico Tech, Socorro, NM; and S. Gjorgjievska and S. Sessions

Recorded Presentation

5:00 PM

4C.5

A Satellite Analysis of Mid-Tropospheric Humidity and its Importance in Tropical Cyclogenesis

David Yeomans, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. J. Soden

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

4C.6

Examination of the roles of intense convection and moisture field in tropical cyclone formation

Zhaoxia Pu, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Li

5:30 PM

4C.7

Roles of the Upper-Level Warm Core in Triggering Tropical Cyclogenesis

Da-Lin Zhang, Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD; and L. Zhu

5:45 PM

4C.8

Investigating the Role of the Upper-Levels in Tropical Cyclogenesis

John Sears, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (638.1 kB)

Session 4D

Numerical Modeling II: Uncoupled TC Structure and Intensity Studies

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Eric Hendricks, NRL

4:00 PM

4D.1

Characteristics of the Variability and Predictability of Idealized Hurricanes in Steady State

Bonnie R. Brown, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and G. J. Hakim

Recorded Presentation

4:15 PM

4D.2

Assessing the predictability of Tropical Storm Erika (2009) through an analysis of environmental factors

Erin B. Munsell, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and D. P. Stern and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

4:30 PM

4D.3

Tropical Cyclone Kinetic Energy and Structure Evolution in the HWRF Model

Katherine S. Maclay, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria and T. H. Vonder Haar

Recorded Presentation

4:45 PM

4D.4

The Role of Convective Heating in Tropical Cyclone Vortex Evolution - Idealized Three-Dimensional Full-Physics Model Simulations

Ho-Hsuan Wei, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

5:00 PM

4D.5

A numerical study of roll vortices in the hurricane boundary layer

Kun Gao, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis

Recorded Presentation

5:15 PM

4D.6

Helical convective vortices in the hurricane boundary layer simulated with the University of Wisconsin Nonhydrostatic Modeling System (UW-NMS)

Zachary Gruskin, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and G. J. Tripoli, W. E. Lewis, J. Zhang, and F. D. Marks Jr.

Recorded Presentation

5:30 PM

4D.7

Tropical Cyclone Energy Energetics and Intensity Prediction

Gregory J. Tripoli, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI

Recorded Presentation

5:45 PM

4D.8

Dynamics and energetics in the early development of Super Typhoon Megi (2010)

Juan Fang, Nanjing University, Najing, China; and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

Session

Ice Breaker Reception

Location: Sawgrass Pool (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session S1

Special Evening Session: Field Experiment Overviews

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Russell L. Elsberry, NPS

8:00 PM

S1.1

NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) Field Experiment Bringing New Technologies to the Hurricane Intensity Problem

Edward J. Zipser, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and S. A. Braun, G. M. Heymsfield, and R. Kakar

Recorded Presentation

8:15 PM

S1.2

The Pre-Depression Investigation of Cloud Systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) Experiment: Scientific Basis, New Analysis Tools and Some First Results

Michael T. Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA

Recorded Presentation

8:30 PM

S1.3

The PRE-Depression Investigation of Cloud-systems in the Tropics (PREDICT) Field Campaign: Roles and Perspectives of Early Career Scientists

Clark Evans, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI; and H. Archambault, J. M. Cordeira, C. L. Fritz, T. J. Galarneau Jr., S. Gjorgjievska, K. S. Griffin, A. Johnson, W. Komaromi, S. A. Monette, P. Muradyan, B. J. Murphy, M. Riemer, J. Sears, D. P. Stern, B. Tang, and S. W. Thompson

Recorded Presentation

8:45 PM

S1.4

NOAA's Intensity Forecasting Experiment: Ongoing Work and 2010 Summary

Robert Rogers, Hurricane Research Division, AOML, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

9:00 PM

S1.5

An Introduction to DYNAMO

Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

9:15 PM

S1.6

An overview of the Impact of Typhoons on the Ocean in the Pacific (ITOP) field program during August – October 2010

Patrick A. Harr, NSF, Arlington, VA; and E. A. D'Asaro and P. G. Black

Recorded Presentation

Session 5B

Tropical Cyclone Interannual Variability

Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University

8:00 AM

5B.1

An Observational Study on the Interdecadal variability of Intense Tropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere

Kevin K. W. Cheung, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; and N. Jiang

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

5B.2

Influence of Tropical Indian Ocean Warming and ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific

Li Tao, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and L. Wu and Y. Wang

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

5B.3

Interannual Variability of the Atlantic Hadley Circulation and Its Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Activity

Gan Zhang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

5B.4

Significant QBO Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Activity

Meng-Pai Hung, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. L. Lin and S. Stuckman

9:00 AM

5B.5

The MJO and the 2005 Hurricane Season

Carl J. Schreck III, North Carolina State University, Asheville, NC; and J. P. Kossin and L. Shi

Recorded Presentation

Handout (10.3 MB)

9:15 AM

5B.6

The different impacts of two kinds of Pacific Ocean warming on tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific

Guanghua Chen, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, China

Recorded Presentation

Handout (310.5 kB)

9:30 AM

5B.7

Internal Variability of the Dynamically Downscaled Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific by the IPRC Regional Climate Model

Yi Lu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and Y. Wang

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

5B.8

Dynamically-Derived Tropical Cyclone Intensity Changes over the Western North Pacific

Liguang Wu, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; and H. Zhao

Recorded Presentation

Session 5A

PREDICT I

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Michael T. Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School

8:00 AM

5A.1

Basic Kinematics in Developing and Non-developing Tropical Disturbances Based Upon Dropwindsonde Data During PREDICT

Mark A. Boothe, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA; and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

5A.2

**An investigation of composite dropsonde profiles for developing and nondeveloping tropical waves during the PREDICT field campaign of 2010**

William Komaromi, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (304.9 kB)

8:30 AM

5A.3

Dynamics and Thermodynamics of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the North Atlantic and the Caribbean

Saska Gjorgjievska, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (176.3 kB)

8:45 AM

5A.4

Observations of the convective environment in developing and non-developing tropical disturbances

Roger K. Smith, Ludwig Maximilian's Univ., Munich, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

5A.5

Vertical Alignment of Mesoscale Vortices: a Prelude to Tropical Cyclogenesis

Christopher A. Davis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ahijevych

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

5A.6

Circulation Dynamics of Pre-depression Karl (2010) Observed During PREDICT

Michael M. Bell, NPS, Monterey, CA; and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

5A.7

Thermodynamic Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Spin-up

Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

5A.8

Organization of deep convection by a low-level circulation in the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones

Timothy J. Dunkerton, NorthWest Research Associates, Redmond, WA

10:00 AM

5A.9

Moisture Variability in a developing cyclone as measured by airborne GPS radio occultation

Brian J. Murphy, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and J. S. Haase, P. Muradyan, J. L. Garrison, S. H. Chen, and Y. C. liu

Recorded Presentation

Session 5C

Tropical Cyclone Rainbands and Precipitation

Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD

8:00 AM

5C.1

Convection-Resolving Ensemble-Based Forecasts of Extreme Precipitation Associated With Landfalling Tropical Cyclones: Assessment of Skill and Utility in the Operational Forecasting Process

Donald F. Van Dyke III, NOAA/NWS, Tallahassee, FL; and C. Evans and T. Lericos

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

5C.2

A Study on the Typhoon Precipitation Forecast in Taiwan

Cheng-Shang Lee, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and L. R. Huang, L. F. Hsiao, D. Y. C. Chen, and L. Y. Chang

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

5C.3

Dynamics of Orographic Rain Associated with the Passage of Hurricane Ivan (2004) Over the Appalachian Mountains

Van Nguyen, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and Y. L. Lin

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

5C.4

Hurricane Outer Core Convective Initiation and the Importance of Cold Pools and Elevated Dry Air

Wesley D. Terwey, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and A. J. Eiserloh Jr. and C. Rothwell

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

5C.5

Convective-scale variations in the inner core rainbands of tropical cyclones

Anthony C. Didlake Jr., NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and R. A. Houze, Jr.

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

5C.6

Convective and Rainfall Properties in the Inner Core and Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Using 11-yr TRMM Data

Haiyan Jiang, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and E. Ramirez and D. J. Cecil

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

5C.7

The Vertical Structure of Tropical Cyclone Rainbands as seen by the TRMM Precipitation Radar

Deanna A. Hence, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr.

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

5C.8

**Quantitative Comparison of TRMM Precipitation Algorithms in Tropical Cyclones**

Joseph P. Zagrodnik, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (734.2 kB)

10:00 AM

5C.9

The Impact of Tropical Cyclones on Drought Alleviation in the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts

Patrick J. Fitzpatrick, Geosystems Research Institute, Stennis Space Center, MS; and C. M. Hill, H. Jiang, P. J. Klotzbach, Y. Lau, and D. Roth

Recorded Presentation

Session 5D

Numerical Modeling III: Coupled Modeling

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC

8:00 AM

5D.1

A Case Study of Nearshore Drag Coefficient Behavior during Hurricane Ike (2008)

Brian C. Zachry, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and A. B. Kennedy, J. L. Schroeder, J. Westerink, and C. W. Letchford

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (837.4 kB)

8:15 AM

5D.2

The air-sea interface under tropical cyclone conditions

Alexander V. Soloviev, Nova Southeastern University, Dania Beach, FL; and A. Fujimura and S. Matt

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

5D.3

Vertical Momentum Transport in a Spray-stratified Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer Under High-wind Conditions of a Hurricane

Yevgenii Rastigejev, North Carolina A&T State Univ., Greensboro, NC; and S. A. Suslov and Y. L. Lin

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

5D.4

**Impacts of Stable Boundary Layer on Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity in Coupled WRF Model**

Chia-Ying Lee, University of Miami, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

9:00 AM

5D.5

Investigation of the Role of the Ocean Component in HWRF

Hyun-Sook Kim, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and J. D. Sims, C. Lozano, V. Tallapragada, D. Iredell, Y. Kwon, Q. Liu, D. Sheinin, and Z. Zhang

9:15 AM

5D.6

Diagnosing the POM-TC ocean model component of NOAA's HWRF and GFDL coupled hurricane forecast models

Richard M. Yablonsky, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

5D.7

Advanced coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean modeling for improving tropical cyclone prediction models

Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and T. Hara, B. Thomas, B. Reichl, J. Bao, and C. W. Fairall

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

5D.8

Air-ocean-wave coupling of Hurricane Ivan (September 2004) in COAMPS-TC

Travis A. Smith, Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS; and S. Chen, T. Campbell, E. Rogers, S. Gabersek, S. Carroll, and R. A. Allard

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

5D.9

Impact of an Ocean Model's Horizontal Resolution on the Ocean Response to a Hurricane

Melissa Kaufman, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis and R. Yablonsky

Recorded Presentation

Session

A.M. Coffee Break

Location: Sawgrass Marriott

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session 6C

Tropical Cyclone Remote Sensing I

Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Jeffrey Hawkins, NRL

10:30 AM

6C.1

NRL tropical cyclone satellite meteorological demonstration products

Jeffrey Hawkins, NRL, Monterey, CA; and K. Richardson, M. Surratt, T. F. Lee, C. R. Sampson, J. E. Solbrig, S. Yang, A. P. Kuciauskas, and J. Kent

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

6C.2

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity at Low Wind Speeds

Kelly E. Ryan, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

11:00 AM

6C.3

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation and Formation Detection using the Deviation Angle Variance Technique

Miguel F. Pineros, Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie, J. S. Tyo, K. M. Wood, G. Valliere-Kelley, I. A. Hernandez, W. Black, and O. Rodriguez-Herrera

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6C.4

New Insights into Tropical Cyclone Dynamics from the MISR Instrument on NASA's Terra Satellite

Michael Garay, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and K. Mueller and D. Wu

Recorded Presentation

6C.5

More Tropical Cyclone Analysis using Microwave Imagery and Data

11:45 AM

6C.6

The Megha-Tropiques Mission: Overview

Nicolas Viltard, CNRS-UVSQ, Guyancourt, France

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

6C.7

Using COSMIC to Infer Moist and Dry Environments Around Tropical Cyclones

Patrick J. Fitzpatrick, Geosystems Research Institute, Stennis Space Center, MS; and C. M. Hill and Y. Lau

Recorded Presentation

Session 6A

PREDICT II

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Christopher Davis, NCAR

10:30 AM

6A.1

**Large-Scale Influences on the Genesis of Hurricane Karl (2010)**

Kyle S. Griffin, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (830.1 kB)

10:45 AM

6A.2

Predictability studies of genesis and non-genesis using global model ensembles

Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and W. Komaromi

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6A.3

Predictability and dynamics of the genesis of Hurricane Karl (2010)

Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and X. Zhou and D. Tao

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6A.4

The sensitivity of pre-genesis forecasts of Hurricanes Danielle and Karl (2010) to pouch and environmental initial conditions

Ryan Torn, SUNY / Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and D. Cook

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

6A.5

**A Numerical Model Study about the Impacts of Dry Air on Tropical Cyclone Formation**

Cody L. Fritz, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

11:45 AM

6A.6

Lagrangian coherent structures in developing and nondeveloping disturbances

Blake Rutherford, NWRA, Redmond, WA; and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

6A.7

Central American Gyres, Tropical Cyclones, and Heavy Rainfall

Lance F. Bosart, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. S. Griffin and P. P. Papin

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

6A.8

**A numerical study of rotating convection during tropical cyclogenesis**

Gerard Kilroy, University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith

Manuscript (249.0 kB)

Session 6B

Tropical Cyclones, Aggregation, and Their Role in Climate

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kerry Emanuel, MIT

10:30 AM

6B.1

Propagation and Maintenance Mechanism of the TC/submonthly Wave Pattern and TC feedback in the Western North Pacific

H. H. Hsu, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. C. Ko

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

6B.2

Response of tropical cyclone frequency to idealized climate changes

Timothy M. Merlis, Princeton University and GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. Zhao and I. M. Held

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6B.3

Multiscale Interaction in the Western North Pacific: Do Tropical Cyclones Contribute to Climate Variability?

H. H. Hsu, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan; and K. C. Ko and C. H. Tsou

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6B.4

Internally versus Externally Forced Tropical Cyclone Variability

James M. Done, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

6B.5

Cumulative Effect of Hurricanes on the Atlantic Ocean

Michael Bueti, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, RI; and I. Ginis and L. Rothstein

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

16D.4

The Upper Ocean's Thermal Response to Tropical Cyclones

John Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, C. Sampson, J. E. Peak, J. Cummings, and W. Schubert

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

6B.7

**Assessing the Climate Footprint of Tropical Cyclones: Pertinent Players or Irrelevant Pawns?**

Benjamin Schenkel, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and R. E. Hart

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (444.7 kB)

12:15 PM

6B.8

Tropical Cyclone Induced Heat Transport

Gino Chen, Miami, FL; and B. P. Kirtman

Recorded Presentation

Session 6D

Numerical Modeling IV: Coupled Modeling

Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Isaac Ginis, University of Rhode Island

10:30 AM

6D.1

Resolving Loop Current and Eddy Variability For Coupled Intensity Forecast Models

Lynn K. (Nick) Shay, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. Jaimes, J. K. Brewster, P. C. Meyers, E. C. McCaskill, G. R. Halliwell Jr., and E. W. Uhlhorn

10:45 AM

6D.2

The Response of Quasi-Geostrophic Oceanic Vortices to Tropical Cyclone Forcing

Benjamin Jaimes, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and L. K. Shay and G. R. Halliwell Jr.

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

6D.3

Coupled Model Simulations Investigating the Role of East Australian Current Eddies in the Formation of East Coast Lows

Christopher R. S. Chambers, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and G. B. Brassington, K. Walsh, and I. Simmonds

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

6D.4

**Using variable resolution meshes to model tropical cyclones in NCAR's CAM general circulation model**

Colin M. Zarzycki, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Jablonowski

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.1 MB)

11:30 AM

6D.5

Structural Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Simulations in General Circulation Models

Christiane Jablonowski, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and K. A. Reed

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

6D.6

Tropical Cyclone Characteristics in the High-Resolution Community Atmosphere Model

Kevin A. Reed, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI; and C. Jablonowski and M. F. Wehner

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

6D.7

**Simulation and Validation of Sea Surface Temperature at the Main Development Region for Tropical Cyclones in Eastern North Pacific Ocean using the Second Generation of the Canadian Earth System Model**

Jerry Y. Jien, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, ON, Canada; and W. A. Gough

Manuscript (446.5 kB)

12:15 PM

6D.8

Oceanic Variability during the CINDY/DYNAMO Field Campaign Simulated by the Global Eddy-resolving Ocean General Circulation Model

Toshiaki Shinoda, NRL, Stennis Space Center, MS; and W. Han, C. Wang, and L. Zamudio

Lunch Break

Location: Sawgrass Marriott

Session 7B

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change I

Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kristen L. Corbosiero, University at Albany, State University of New York

1:30 PM

7B.1

Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones and Changes in the Drag Coefficient

Jay S. Hobgood, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

7B.2

Tropical cyclone rapid intensification: patterns related to geography, time of season, and storm characteristics

Peter H. Yaukey, University of New Orleans, New Orleans, LA

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (420.9 kB)

2:00 PM

7B.3

On the Trigger of Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Wilma (2005)

Hua Chen, NOAA/AOML, College Park, MD; and D. Zhang

2:15 PM

7B.4

**Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Earl in Advanced Hurricane WRF Model Simulations**

Diamilet Pérez-Betancourt, University of Puerto Rico, Mayagüez, PR; and C. Davis

Manuscript (457.1 kB)

2:30 PM

7B.5

**Rapid Intensification of a Sheared, Fast-Moving Hurricane over the Gulf Stream**

Leon Nguyen, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (514.9 kB)

2:45 PM

7B.6

Convective evolution during rapid intensification under varying shear

Daniel S. Harnos, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. W. Nesbitt

3:00 PM

7B.7

Understanding passive microwave and radar signatures of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones: observations and model simulations for process understanding

Stephen W. Nesbitt, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and D. S. Harnos, S. Tanelli, S. L. Durden, and G. M. McFarquhar

3:15 PM

7B.8

The 37 GHz Cyan Ring and Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification: What Does the Cyan Color Truly Represent?

Margaret E. Kieper, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

Recorded Presentation

Session 7C

Tropical Cyclone Remote Sensing II

Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Unviersity of Wisconsin

1:30 PM

7C.1

The current status of the UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)

Timothy L. Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (196.5 kB)

1:45 PM

7C.2

Update on SATellite-based CONsensus (SATCON) Approach to TC Intensity Estimation

Derrick Herndon, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden and J. D. Hawkins

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (174.9 kB)

2:00 PM

7C.3

Advances in objective TC center fixing using multispectral satellite imagery

Anthony Wimmers, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.8 MB)

2:15 PM

7C.4

**Creating diagnostic techniques of TC structure from satellite microwave data toward improved intensity change prediction**

Joshua Cossuth, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (718.0 kB)

2:30 PM

7C.6

Improving SFMR Surface Wind Measurements in Heavy Rain Conditions

Bradley W. Klotz, NOAA/AOML - Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (524.6 kB)

2:45 PM

7C.7

Comparison of a 2-D Velocity Dealiasing Algorithm to the Legacy WSR-88D Velocity Dealiasing Algorithm during Hurricane Irene

W. David Zittel, NOAA, National Weather Service, Radar Operations Center, Norman, OK; and Z. Jing

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (461.3 kB)

3:00 PM

7C.8

"The Use of the RGB Airmass Product at the HPC, OPC, NHC, and SAB GOES-R Proving Grounds during the 2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season"

Michael J. Folmer, CICS, College Park, MD; and A. L. Molthan, K. K. Fuell, J. A. Knaff, J. M. Sienkiewicz, E. Danaher, J. Kibler, D. R. Novak, B. Reed, J. L. Beven II, and M. DeMaria

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

7C.9

**Global distribution of Hot Towers in Tropical Cyclones Based on 11-year TRMM Data**

Cheng Tao, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (723.7 kB)

Session 7A

DYNAMO/CINDY2011 I

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

1:30 PM

7A.1

A General View of the International Field Experiment CINDY2011 and DYNAMO

Kunio Yoneyama, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Japan; and C. Zhang

Handout (1.5 MB)

1:45 PM

7A.2

Review of large scale circulation and convection associated with the MJO and other coherent subseasonal tropical variability during DYNAMO

Jon Gottschalck, NOAA / Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD; and A. Vintzileos

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7A.3

Application of Time Extended EOFs of the MJO and Equatorial Waves for DYNAMO

Paul E. Roundy, SUNY, Albany, NY

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7A.4

AMIE: A two-pronged campaign to study the MJO in collaboration with DYNAMO and CINDY2011

Charles N. Long, PNNL, Richland, WA; and S. A. McFarlane, B. Orr, M. Ritsche, P. Ortega, and T. Culgan

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7A.5

Cloud Field and in Cloud Air Motion Variations Associated with Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Observed by ARM Cloud Radars during the AMIE/DYNAMO/CINDY Project

Min Deng, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY; and C. N. Long, S. McFarlane, and G. G. Mace

2:45 PM

7A.6

SMART-R and the DYNAMO/CINDY2011 6-month Extended Observation Period

Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

7A.7

Relationship between Horizontal and Vertical Size of Convective Cells Observed during DYNAMO

Daehyun Kim, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and C. Schumacher, A. H. Sobel, and M. Mosier

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

7A.8

forecasts and hindcasts of MJO events during CINDY2011/DYNAMO field campaign using a global nonhydrostatic model NICAM

Tomoe Nasuno, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan; and M. Ikeda, M. Satoh, K. Yoneyama, R. Shirooka, K. Yasunaga, H. Yamada, M. Katsumata, and J. Suzuki

3:30 PM

7A.9

Performance of the NCEP model suite during DYNAMO October 2011-March 2012

Augustin Vintzileos, University of Maryland/Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, Camp Springs, MD; and J. Gottschalck

Recorded Presentation

Session 7D

Catastrophe Modeling & Other Industry Topics

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide Corporation

1:30 PM

7D.1

Virtual Vessels Evading Historical Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico

Dante C. Diaz, ImpactWeather, Inc., Houston, TX; and B. Weinzapfel, D. Eyre, M. Wishahy, and J. Spain

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.5 MB)

1:45 PM

7D.2

Quantifying risk in LiveCAT Markets: A Real-Time Named Storm Impact Loss Model

Andrew Siffert, FlagstoneRE, Halifax, NS, Canada; and G. Hofmann and J. H. Paek

http://www.flagstonere.com/index.aspx

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

7D.3

A Hurricane Risk Index for the U.S

Peter S. Dailey, AIR-Worldwide, Boston, MA; and I. Dima and M. Desflots

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

7D.4

An Overview of the Florida Catastrophic Storm Risk Management Center and the Florida Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Commission

Patrick F. Maroney, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and L. Medders

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

7D.5

Is a Trillion Dollar Hurricane Season Possible?

Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (136.1 kB)

2:45 PM

7D.6

EQECAT's Time-Stepping United States Mainland Tropical Cyclone Wind Field Model

Justin Brolley, CoreLogic, Oakland, CA; and J. Mangano, D. F. Smith, and A. Haseemkunju

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

7D.7

Tropical Cyclone Risk Models - Circular Symmetry Revisited

Peter J. Sousounis, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and J. Butke and K. A. Hill

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (955.6 kB)

3:15 PM

Towards a Global Tropical Cyclone Risk Model

Angelika Werner, Willis Research Network, London, United Kingdom; and G. J. Holland, J. M. Done, J. Czajkowski, I. Scott, H. Galy, P. L. Vidale, J. Strachan, T. R. Knutson, M. Zhao, H. S. Kim, J. A. Smith, G. Villarini, P. McSharry, D. B. Stephenson, R. Vitolo, B. Khazai, and G. Michel

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

7D.8

Hurricane Storm Surge in Tampa Bay: A Physically-based Risk Assessment

Ning Lin, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. Emanuel

Recorded Presentation

Session

Afternoon Coffee Break

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Poster Session P1

Poster Session I: Operational Issues, Genesis, Precipitation, Landfall, Historical Perspectives, and Climate Change

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

P1.1

The Characteristics of Disaster Associated with Track of Typhoon Affecting the Korean Peninsula

Ki-Jun Park, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and S. H. Ahn and B. J. Kim

Handout (436.8 kB)

P1.2

Socio-economic impacts of typhoon struck the Korean Peninsular

Baek-Jo Kim, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and C. Cho and K. J. Park

Handout (2.2 MB)

P1.3

The Seventh International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones

Jeffrey D. Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and C. S. Velden, E. A. Ritchie, and P. Caroff

P1.4

Training on tropical cyclones for Latin American students

Luis M. Farfán, CICESE, Unidad La Paz, La Paz, Baja California , Mexico; and G. B. Raga

Manuscript (579.7 kB)

Handout (181.9 kB)

P1.5

The Continuously Operating Caribbean Observational Network (COCONet): Improved Observational Capacity in the Caribbean

John J. Braun, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Calais, K. Feaux, G. Mattioli, M. Miller, and G. Wang

P1.6

Discriminating between tornadic and non-tornadic soundings in tropical cyclones

Matthew D. Eastin, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and B. M. Hays and M. C. Link

P1.7

Variations of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Vietnam Coastal Region

Hoang Anh Nguyen-Thi, Tokyo Metropolitan University, Hachioji, Japan; and J. Matsumoto and N. Endo

P1.8

Remote Effects of Tropical Cyclones on Heavy Rainfall over the Korean Peninsula

Kun-Young Byun, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and T. Y. Lee

http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/14983

Handout (1.8 MB)

P1.9

Factors Influencing Extreme Precipitation Associated With Tropical Storm Fay (2008) Across North Florida and Southwest Georgia

Clark Evans, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, WI

Handout (25.9 MB)

P1.10

Environmental Controls on the Vertical Structure of Tropical Orographic Precipitation and Implications for Passive Microwave Retrievals

Kimberly A. Reed, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and S. W. Nesbitt

Handout (10.0 MB)

P1.11

Explorations in understanding the diurnal rainfall cycle over islands

Larissa E. Back, University of Wisconsin- Madison, Madison, WI

P1.12

An Observational and Modeling Study of Tropical Cyclone Outer Rainbands

Randell J. Barry, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Univ., Daytona Beach, FL; and T. A. Guinn

Manuscript (1.9 MB)

Handout (737.1 kB)

P1.13

Rain retrieval challenges associated with Hawaiian Islands

Daniel J. Cecil, University of Alabama - Huntsville, Huntsville, AL

P1.14

The spatial patterns of rainfall produced by Hurricane Irene (2011) and other tropical cyclones with similar tracks

Corene J. Matyas, Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL

Manuscript (671.6 kB)

Handout (1.4 MB)

P1.15

Influence of Storm Motion on TC Precipitation Distribution

Ying Li, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, Beijing, China

P1.16

A Look at the New Oceansat-2 Scatterometer (OSCAT) over Tropical Cyclones

Roger T. Edson, NOAA/NWS, Barrigada, Guam; and P. S. Chang and Z. Jelenak

P1.17

Overview of the GOES-R Proving Ground Activities at National Hurricane Center

John Knaff, NOAA Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria, D. W. Hillger, D. T. Lindsey, D. A. Molenar, J. L. Beven II, M. J. Brennan, H. D. Cobb III, R. Brummer, A. B. Schumacher, J. Dunion, K. K. Fuell, A. L. Molthan, and C. S. Velden

P1.18

New GSMaP over-land precipitation retrieval algorithm for AMSR2

Kazumasa Aonashi, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and M. Yamaguchi, H. Ishimoto, and K. Imaoka

Handout (401.0 kB)

P1.19

The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) - Planned research and development avenues for continued algorithm improvement

Timothy L. Olander, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

P1.20

Tropical cyclone intensity estimation using temporal analysis and spatial features in satellite data

Gholamreza Fetanat, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and A. Homaifar and K. Knapp

Manuscript (661.4 kB)

Handout (368.5 kB)

P1.21

Estimating Tropical Cyclone Intensity Using the SSMIS and ATMS Sounders

Derrick Herndon, CIMSS, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Manuscript (551.1 kB)

P1.22

Computing Deep-Tropospheric Vertical Wind Shear Analyses for TC Applications: Does the Methodology Matter?

Christopher S. Velden, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. Sears and M. Sitkowski

Manuscript (524.7 kB)

P1.23

Examining Trends in Satellite-Detected Overshooting Tops as a Potential Predictor of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

Sarah A. Monette, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden

Manuscript (495.0 kB)

Handout (5.8 MB)

P1.24

Simulated Satellite Imagery as a Diagnostic Tool for Regional Hurricane Models

David A. Zelinsky, National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL

P1.25

Spatial Modeling of Single Cell Cloud-to-Ground Lightning in Gwinnett County, GA

Ona M. Strikas, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner

http://myweb.fsu.edu/oms10/AMSposter.pdf

Handout (1.6 MB)

P1.26

Tropical cyclogenesis sensitivity and predictability

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. M. Amerault, J. R. Moskaitis, and C. A. Reynolds

P1.27

Climatology of Tropical Cyclogenesis Pathways in the NCAR Nested Regional Climate Model

Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO

P1.28

Role of Intense Updrafts in Tropical Cyclone Formation

Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL

P1.29

A Development Process of the Tropical Disturbance Observed in PALAU2010 for Understanding Tropical Cyclognesis

Yoshida Ryuji, RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science, Kobe, Japan

Manuscript (1.4 MB)

P1.30

The Climatological Characteristics of the Landfall Typhoons on North Korea

Suk-Hee Ahn, Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and K. J. Park and B. J. Kim

Handout (434.8 kB)

P1.31

A Statistical and Numerical Modeling Approach to Improved Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Wind Forecasts

Bryce Paul Tyner, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and A. Aiyyer

P1.32

Evolution of lightning in eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclones as they approach the coast of Mexico

Graciela B. Raga, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera/Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico; and T. Aviles, J. S. Cervantes, and F. Oropeza

Handout (712.7 kB)

P1.33

Overview of UAHuntsville ground-based observations of landfalling Hurricane Irene (2011)

Kevin Knupp, University of Alabama in Huntsville, Huntsville, AL; and D. Phillips, S. Mullins, T. A. Murphy, M. Saari, and R. A. Wade

P1.34

Tropical Cyclone Ensemble Forecast Windfields to 120hrs lead

Adam S. R. Lea, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and M. A. Saunders

P1.35

Accuracy of NHC Track and Intensity Forecasts for Tropical Disturbances and Weak Tropical Cyclones

Daniel P. Brown, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and J. P. Cangialosi and T. B. Kimberlain

P1.36

Verification of tropical cyclone track predictions from an experimental high-resolution NOGAPS ensemble

Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and C. A. Reynolds, E. Serra, and J. McLay

P1.37

Verification and expansion of probabilistic tropical cyclogenesis forecasts by Dvorak analyses

Joshua Cossuth, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and R. D. Knabb, D. P. Brown, and R. E. Hart

P1.38

Analysis of the variability of Atlantic tropical cyclone forecast errors

Joshua Cossuth, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL

P1.39

Evaluation of Synoptic Patterns for Atlantic Hurricanes Categorized by Ensemble Track Error and Variance

Lindsey Day, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

P1.40

SLOSH Model Hindcast of Hurricane Irene (2011) Surge

Brian C. Zachry, AIR Worldwide, Boston, MA; and A. L. Doggett and A. B. Kennedy

Manuscript (2.2 MB)

P1.41

Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Track Forecasts from the ECMWF 15-day and 32-day Ensemble for the western North Pacific

Grant Elliott, Bureau of Meteorology, Perth, Australia, West Perth, Australia; and R. L. Elsberry and P. Harr

P1.42

The forecasting skill impact of verifying TC dissipation

Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

P1.43

Extension of global best-track tropical cyclone record using gridded reanalyses

Robert E. Hart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcprob

Manuscript (600.7 kB)

P1.44

Is a homogeneous global record of TC position and intensity possible?

P1.45

A Reanalysis of the 1931 to 1943 Atlantic Hurricane Database

Christopher Landsea, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL; and A. B. Hagen, W. Bredemeyer, D. A. Glenn, A. Santiago, and C. Carrasco

P1.46

Tropical Cyclones Tracks near the coast of Southern Mexico

John Cangialosi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL

P1.47

Monitoring middle and upper tropospheric humidity from satellite microwave sensors: Applications for tropical cyclone studies and climate monitoring

Eui-Seok Chung, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and B. J. Soden and V. O. John

P1.48

Evaluating the relationship between large-scale and storm-ambient environments

Stacy M. Lynn, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and A. Evan

P1.49

A Reanalysis of the 1954 Atlantic Hurricane Season Database

Sandy Delgado, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), Miami, FL

P1.51

Influence of environmental factors on the tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific during the past 30 years (1980-2009)

Wook Jang, Yonsei Univ., Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South); and H. Y. Chun

P1.52

Cluster analysis of tropical cyclone tracks in the Southern Hemisphere

P1.53

The Role of Tropical Cyclones in the Mexico Climate

Christian Dominguez Sarmiento, UNAM (National Autonomous University of Mexico), mexico city, df, Mexico; and V. O. Magaña Rueda

Manuscript (657.3 kB)

Handout (1.1 MB)

P1.54

Tropical cyclone landfall probabilities and track analysis for the Eastern North Pacific: 1970-2009

Rosario Romero-Centeno, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), México City (D.F.), México, Mexico City, DF, Mexico; and J. Zavala-Hidalgo and G. Raga

Handout (3.4 MB)

P1.55

Uncertainties in Futurue Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Projected by Multi-Physics and Multi-SST Ensemble Experiments Using the 60-KM-Mesh MRI-AGCM

Hiroyuki Murakami, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and R. Mizuta and E. Shindo

Handout (1.7 MB)

P1.56

Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Florida's Future Hurricane Event Risk

Michelle Ruiz, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX

P1.57

The Hots Get Hotter: Tallahassee's History of 100 Degree Days Since 1951

Laura Elizabeth Michaels, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. B. Elsner

Plenary Session S2

Special Evening Session: Panel Discussion on Industry Applications

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Moderators: Richard J. Murnane, Bermuda Biological Station for Research; Greg J. Holland, NCAR

8:00 PM

Using Seasonal Hurricane Forecast: Presented by Dale Rowe

Recorded Presentation

8:15 PM

Crowdsourcing Seasonal Hurricane landfall Forecasts: Presented by Rick Murnane

Recorded Presentation

Session 8A

DYNAMO/CINDY2011 II

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Charles N. Long, PNNL

8:00 AM

8A.1

The DYNAMO/CINDY Atmospheric Sounding Array: Its Performance and Plans for Quality Control

Paul E. Ciesielski, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. H. Johnson

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

8A.2

DYNAMO/CINDY Sounding Network – Performance and Preliminary Scientific Results

Richard H. Johnson, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and P. E. Ciesielski

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

8A.3

Spatial Variability of Tropospheric Water Vapor and Convective Cloud Systems in DYNAMO

Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Lee, F. Judt, B. Kerns, and E. Ryan

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

8A.4

Moisture Variations observed over the Tropical Indian Ocean during CINDY2011

Kazuaki Yasunaga, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and M. Katsumata and K. Yoneyama

9:00 AM

8A.5

Continuous Estimates of GPS Precipitable Water Vapor During the DYNAMO Field Experiment

John J. Braun, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and T. Van Hove, W. O. J. Brown, T. M. Weckwerth, and T. Lim

Recorded Presentation

8A.6

Time Series of Remotely-Sensed Humidity Vertical Profiles and Lower-Tropospheric Humidity and Liquid Water Content Fields at DYNAMO's S-Pol Site

9:30 AM

8A.7

MJO Initiation in an Aquaplanet GCM and Comparison to DYNAMO/CINDY Observations

Eric Maloney, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

8A.8

Moisture mode theory: the role of horizontal moisture advection in the MJO

Adam H. Sobel, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and E. D. Maloney

Recorded Presentation

Session 8C

Tropical Cyclone Structure I: TC-Environment Interaction and Higher Order Structure

Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Stephen Guimond, NASA / GSFC

8:00 AM

8C.1

**A Study on Tropical Cyclone (TC) Structure Changes and Organized Convections associated with TC-Environment Interactions**

Buo-Fu Chen, National Taiwan University,Taipei,Taiwan, Monterey, CA; and C. S. Lee

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (742.3 kB)

8:15 AM

8C.2

On Roles of ICE-Phase Microphysics in Tropical Cyclone Evolution with Vertical Wind Shear

Zhenduo zhu, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and P. Zhu

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

8C.3

**A Model Study on Tropical Cyclone Structural Changes in Response to Ambient Moisture Variations**

Yue Ying, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Q. Zhang Sr.

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (730.5 kB)

8:45 AM

8C.4

Diurnal Pulsing of Tropical Cyclones: An Overlooked Yet Fundamental TC Process?

Jason Dunion, University of Miami/CIMAS-NOAA/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. Thorncroft, C. S. Velden, K. Emanuel, and D. S. Nolan

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

8C.5

Environmental impacts on tropical cyclone structure and intensity diagnosed from airborne Doppler radar composites

Paul Reasor, NOAA, Miami, FL; and R. F. Rogers and S. Lorsolo

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

8C.6

**Intermittently Forced Vortex Rossby Waves**

Amaryllis Cotto, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. E. Willoughby

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (168.5 kB)

9:30 AM

8C.7

Analysis of the Mesoscale Structure and Vortex Rossby Waves in High-Resolution Numerical Simulations of Typhoon Morakot (2009)

Jonty D. Hall, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

8C.8

**Spiral rainband propagation: Vortex-Rossby waves vs. tropical squall lines**

Yumin Moon, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. S. Nolan

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.8 MB)

Session 8D

Numerical Modeling V

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Christiane Jablonowski, University of Michigan

8:00 AM

8D.1

Some New Techniques for Hurricane Forecast Verification

Tressa L. Fowler, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

8D.2

Construction of Economical Meshes for Tropical Cyclone Forecasting

Martin Baumann, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and V. Heuveline, L. Scheck, and S. C. Jones

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

8:30 AM

8D.3

Impact of Parameter Variations on Tropical Forecasts in a Global Atmospheric Ensemble

Carolyn A. Reynolds, NRL, Monterey, CA; and J. A. Ridout, J. McLay, and M. Flatau

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

8D.4

Extended Predictability of Tropical Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean

James I. Belanger, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

8D.5

Extended-range Ensemble Forecasting of the Genesis of Tropical Cyclone Nargis (2008): Modulation of Madden-Julian Oscillation

Xiouhua Fu, IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and P. C. Hsu

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

8D.6

**Monsoonal Influence on the Track Change of Typhoon Morakot (2009)**

Jia Liang, NUIST, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China; and L. Wu

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (821.8 kB)

9:30 AM

8D.7

Genesis of Typhoon Fengshen (2008) from Vortex Superposition: PALAU Field Experiment and a Global Cloud-Resolving Simulation

Hiroyuki Yamada, Univ. of the Ryukyus, Nakagami-gun, Japan; and T. Nasuno, W. Yanase, R. Shirooka, and M. Satoh

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

9:45 AM

8D.8

Regional Climate Model Simulation of Summer Rainfall over Southeast China

Wan-Ru Huang, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.0 MB)

Session 8B

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change II

Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Matthew D. Eastin, University of North Carolina at Charlotte

8:00 AM

8B.1

Observations of inner-core moisture evolution during periods of pre-rapid intensification

Kelly C. Smith, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and M. D. Eastin

8:15 AM

8B.2

Impact of Inner-Core Tropical Cyclone Structure on the Potential for Rapid Intensification

Jonathan L. Vigh, NCAR, Boulder, Colorado; and C. M. Rozoff

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/staff/jvigh/vdm/des/

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (930.7 kB)

8:30 AM

8B.3

Observations of the Inner-Core Structure of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones

Robert Rogers, Hurricane Research Division, AOML, Miami, FL; and P. Reasor, S. Lorsolo, and J. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

8B.4

Evaluation of 37 GHz Microwave Ring Pattern for Forecasting Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones using SSM/I, SSMI/S and AMSR-E data

Tie Yuan, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and H. Jiang

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

8B.5

Examining Trends in Satellite-Detected Overshooting Tops as a Potential Predictor of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification

Sarah A. Monette, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, K. S. Griffin, and C. M. Rozoff

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (536.5 kB)

9:15 AM

8B.6

Improvements in the probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone rapid intensification resulting from inclusion of satellite passive microwave observations

Christopher M. Rozoff, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, J. Kaplan, A. Wimmers, and J. P. Kossin

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (813.3 kB)

9:30 AM

8B.7

Improving Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensity Change Forecasts

Mark DeMaria, NHC, Miami, FL; and J. A. Knaff, A. B. Schumacher, and J. Kaplan

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

8B.8

Assessing the predictability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification as a function of forecast lead-time using the SHIPS rapid intensification index

John Kaplan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and C. M. Rozoff, C. R. Sampson, J. P. Kossin, C. S. Velden, M. DeMaria, and J. A. Knaff

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

8B.9

**Determining Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change through Balanced Vortex Model Applications**

Christopher J. Slocum, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (563.7 kB)

Session

A.M. Coffee Break

Location: Sawgrass Marriott

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session 9D

African Weather and Climate I

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State University

10:30 AM

9D.1

Revisiting atmospheric and oceanic teleconnection impacts on West African Monsoon rainfall variability

Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and S. Diatta

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

9D.2

The nocturnal low-level jet in tropical West Africa: generation and representation in various data archives

Adam M. Rife, Creighton University, Omaha, NE; and D. J. M. Schrage

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

9D.3

Driving factors of rainfall variability in western equatorial Africa during boreal spring and autumn

Amin K. Dezfuli, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD; and S. E. Nicholson

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

9D.4

Wave activity and convection in equatorial Africa

Sharon E. Nicholson, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and J. D. Baum

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

9D.5

Origin of the Pre-Tropical Storm Debby (2006) African Easterly Wave-Mesoscale Convective System

Yuh-Lang Lin, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; and L. Liu, G. Tang, J. Spinks, and W. Jones

http://mesolab.ncat.edu/publications (web)/

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.4 MB)

11:45 AM

9D.7

A look at the recent drought situation in the Horn of Africa

Doug Klotter, Florida State University, Talllahasss, FL; and S. E. Nicholson and T. Austin

Recorded Presentation

Session 9A

DYNAMO/CINDY2011 III

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kunio Yoneyama, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC)

10:30 AM

9A.1

Understanding the Multiscale Structures in the Tropics

Da Yang, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and A. P. Ingersoll

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

9A.2

Shipboard Operations of the NASA-TOGA Radar in DYNAMO

Steven A. Rutledge, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO; and T. Lang, N. Guy, B. Bowie, A. Rowe, T. Meyer, E. J. Thompson, O. H. Shieh, A. L. Igel, M. Igel, G. King, N. Gears, M. Watson, J. Gerlach, and W. A. Petersen

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

9A.3

Aircraft Measurements of the Atmosphere and Upper Ocean During DYNAMO 2011

Qing Wang, NPS, Monterey, CA; and S. S. Chen, D. Khelif, D. P. Jorgensen, C. J. Zappa, A. Bucholtz, and P. Chuang

11:15 AM

9A.4

Preliminary Results from a Motion-Stabilized, Scanning, Doppler Lidar, Operated from the RV Revelle During DYNAMO

W. Alan Brewer, NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and R. J. Alvarez II, A. Weickmann, S. P. Sandberg, and M. Hardesty

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

9A.5

In-situ Observed Atmospheric and Oceanic Variations over Seychelle-Chagos Thermocline Ridge during CINDY/DYNAMO

Masaki Katsumata, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka, Kanagawa, Japan; and K. Yoneyama, K. Yasunaga, A. Seiki, C. Takahashi, H. Yamada, T. Nasuno, J. Suzuki, R. Shirooka, A. Kurotaki, M. Seki, M. Kimura, K. Tashiro, K. Richards, A. Natarov, A. Tsuboi, N. Takamura, T. Takemi, T. Nishizawa, I. Matsui, N. Sugimoto, T. Ohkura, T. Takano, H. Ueno, O. Tsukamoto, M. Fujiwara, and T. Shinoda

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

9A.6

Upper Ocean Mixing in the Equatorial Indian Ocean during DYNAMO

Jim N. Moum, College of Oceanic & Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

9A.7

Upper Ocean Observations during DYNAMO in Central Indian Ocean

Ren-Chieh Lien, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and N. H. Chi, B. Ma, and T. B. Sanford

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

9A.8

Ocean Skin Temperature Variability during Suppressed and Active Phases of an MJO

Christopher J. Zappa, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY; and S. Brown, A. Bucholtz, S. S. Chen, P. Y. Chuang, D. P. Jorgensen, D. Khelif, and Q. Wang

Recorded Presentation

Session 9B

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change III

Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: George H. Bryan, NCAR

10:30 AM

9B.1

Observational estimates of turbulence characteristics in the low-level troposphere of intense hurricanes

Jun A. Zhang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and M. T. Montgomery, F. D. Marks Jr., and S. Lorsolo

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

9B.2

Impact of vertical wind shear on the Predictability of Tropical Cyclones

Dandan Tao, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

9B.3

Does the vertical wind shear profile matter to tropical cyclone intensity change?

Yuqing Wang, International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

9B.4

Tropical cyclones in vertical shear: dynamic, kinematic, and thermodynamic aspects of intensity modification

Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery and M. E. Nicholls

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

9B.5

A Ventilation Index for Tropical Cyclones: Applications for Genesis and Intensification

Brian Tang, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and K. Emanuel

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

9B.6

The importance of outflow turbulence in the intensification and structure of tropical cyclones

Kerry Emanuel, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and R. Rotunno

Recorded Presentation

9B.7

Horizontal Divergence of Typhoon-generated Gravity Waves in the Upper Troposphere and Its Contribution to the Intensity of Typhoon Saomai (2006)

12:15 PM

9B.8

On the role of radiation in tropical cyclone dynamics

Gregory J. Hakim, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Recorded Presentation

Session 9C

Tropical Cyclone Structure II: Boundary Layer, Eyewall, and Eye structure

Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Jeffrey D. Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

10:30 AM

9C.1

Shock-Like Structures in the Tropical Cyclone Boundary Layer

Gabriel J. Williams Jr., College of Charleston; and R. K. Taft, B. D. McNoldy, and W. H. Schubert

10:45 AM

9C.2

Dynamical Boundary-Layer Depths in Hurricanes Derived from Surface Wind Observations

Eric W. Uhlhorn, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and M. Fischer, B. W. Klotz, and J. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

9C.3

Analysis of the hurricane boundary layer kinematic structure using Doppler radar profiles

Sylvie Lorsolo, AIR-Worldwide, Boston, MA; and R. Rogers and P. Reasor

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

9C.4

An Investigation of the Eyewall Boundary Layer and Stability Indices in a Sheared Tropical Cyclone

Klaus P. Dolling, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and G. M. Barnes

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (840.1 kB)

11:30 AM

9C.5

Sensitivity of eyewall structure and intensification of tropical cyclones to the boundary layer turbulent mixing

Cen Gao, Florida International University, MIAMI, FL; and P. Zhu

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

9C.6

Impact of the boundary layer processes on eyewall structure and mesovortices of hurricanes

Ping Zhu, Florida International University, Miami, FL; and K. Menelaou and Z. zhu

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

9C.7

Convective Bursts, Downdraft Cooling, and Boundary Layer Recovery in a Tropical Storm

John Molinari, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. D. Frank and D. Vollaro

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

9C.8

The Structure of Descent in the Eye of Tropical Cyclones

Daniel P. Stern, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and F. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Location: Sawgrass Marriott

Session 10A

GRIP I

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Scott A. Braun, NASA

1:30 PM

10A.1

**The Role of Deep Convection in Moistening the Inner Core Regions of Developing Tropical Cyclones: Evidence from GRIP 2010**

Jonathan Zawislak, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (667.7 kB)

1:45 PM

10A.2

**The Evolution of Dropsonde-derived Vorticity in Developing and Non-developing Tropical Convective Systems**

Charles N. Helms, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and R. E. Hart

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.4 MB)

2:00 PM

10A.3

Microphysics data obtained by the DC-8 during GRIP in relation to near-coincident radar profiles of deep convection

Edward Zipser, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and A. Heymsfield, G. Heymsfield, R. Rogers, and S. Braun

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10A.4

Understanding the Relationships Between Lightning, Cloud Microphysics, and Airborne Radar-Derived Storm Structure during Hurricane Karl (2010)

Brad J. Reinhart, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and H. E. Fuelberg, A. J. Heymsfield, R. J. Blakeslee, and S. L. Durden

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

10A.5

GRIP observations with HAMSR of the rapidly intensifying Hurricane Karl

Bjorn H. Lambrigtsen, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and S. T. Brown and A. Behrangi

2:45 PM

10A.6

EnKF OSSE Experiments with HIWRAP Radial Velocity Data: Hurricane Karl (2010)

Jason Sippel, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. A. Braun

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

10A.7

Role of large scale forcing and parameterizations on the modeling of Hurricane Karl genesis

Albert Comellas, CIMA Research Foundation, Savona, Italy; and A. Parodi, S. Tanelli, S. L. Durden, and J. Zawislak

Recorded Presentation

Session 10D

African Weather and Climate II

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Kerry H. Cook, The University of Texas

1:30 PM

10D.1

Variations of the Mid-tropospheric Dry Air Layer and its Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Atlantic Basin

Isaac E. Hankes, Northern Illinois University, DeKalb, IL; and Z. Wang

1:45 PM

10D.2

Examining the potential impact of the Saharan Air Layer on Atlantic tropical cyclone development with satellite data and ensemble WRF-Chem simulations

Henian Zhang, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and I. N. Sokolik, J. A. Curry, and Y. Deng

2:00 PM

10D.3

Climate variability and change in East Africa

Arlene Laing, Science Education and Research, Boulder, CO; and J. Dudhia, F. Witmer, and A. Gettelman

2:15 PM

10D.4

East African Climate Prediction: Shorter Long Rains and Longer Short Rains

Kerry H. Cook, The University of Texas, Austin, TX; and E. K. Vizy

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

10D.5

A two-dimensional idealized modeling of the West African Monsoon annual cycle

Philippe Peyrillé, Météo-France, Toulouse, France; and J. P. Lafore

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

10D.6

Real-time monitoring and forecast of synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability of the 2011 West African Monsoon

Romain Roehrig, Météo France, Toulouse, France; and F. Couvreux, E. Poan, J. P. Lafore, O. Ndiaye, A. Diongue, F. Favot, L. Fleury, and J. L. boichard

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

10D.7

Multi-Decadal Variability of West African Rainfall in CMIP5 Simulations

Elinor Martin, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.7 MB)

3:15 PM

10D.8

Ultra‐low clouds over the southern West African monsoon region: causes and challenges in representation in models and satellite data

Jon M. Schrage, Creighton Univ., Omaha, NE; and A. H. Fink, R. Schuster, and P. Knippertz

Recorded Presentation

Session 10B

Monsoon

Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Johnny C. L. Chan, City University of Hong Kong

1:30 PM

10B.1

Impact of the Tibetan Plateau on the Asian monsoon. I: Formation of the Meiyu front

Simona Bordoni, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and H. S. Park

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

10B.2

Extratropical-Tropical Interaction during Heavy Rainfall Events “Cloudbursts” Observed over Himalayan Region

Archana Shrestha, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison,, WI; and L. E. Back and G. Tripoli

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

10B.3

Space time variation of lightning activity over Bangladesh

Mohommad Iqbal Tinmaker, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, Maharashtra, India

2:15 PM

10B.4

Changes in Global Monsoon Precipitation under Global Warming

Pang-chi Hsu, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI; and T. Li, B. Wang, J. J. Luo, H. Murakami, A. Kitoh, and M. Zhao

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

10B.5

Local summer monsoon precipitation patterns in the Western Ghats

Wendilyn J. Flynn, University of Northern Colorado, Greeley, CO; and S. W. Nesbitt

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

10B.6

Interannual teleconnection between Ural-Siberian blocking and East Asian winter monsoon

Ho Nam Cheung, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and W. Zhou

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.2 MB)

Handout (1.6 MB)

3:00 PM

10B.7

Mechanisms for Precipitation Enhancement in a North American Monsoon Upper-Tropospheric Trough

Andrew J. Newman, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. H. Johnson

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

10B.8

Pulse of WNP Subtropical High Shaping Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone

Bin Wang, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Xiang

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

10B.9

A polarimetric radar analysis of convection observed during NAME and TiMREX

Angela K. Rowe, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and S. A. Rutledge

Recorded Presentation

Session 10C

TC Structure III: Size changes, Surface Wind, and Symmetric/Asymmetric Flow

Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Hugh E. Willoughby, Florida International University

1:30 PM

10C.1

A comparison of three-dimensional versus axisymmetric tropical cyclones in the Cloud Model CM1

John Persing, NPS, Wellington, CO; and M. T. Montgomery, J. C. McWilliams, and R. Smith

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

10C.2

A Transition Mechanism for the Spontaneous Axisymmetric Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

Yoshiaki Miyamoto, Univ. of Miami, Miami, FL; and T. Takemi

2:00 PM

10C.3

Tropical-cyclone ﬂow asymmetries induced by a uniform ﬂow revisited

Gerald L. Thomsen, Ludwig Maximilian's University of Munich, Munich, Germany; and R. K. Smith and M. T. Montgomery

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

10C.4

**Equilibrium Tropical Cyclone Size in an Idealized State of Axisymmetric Radiative-Convective Equilibrium**

Daniel R. Chavas, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and K. Emanuel

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (672.4 kB)

2:30 PM

10C.5

Angular Momentum Transport and Tropical Cyclone Size Changes

Kelvin T. F. Chan, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China; and J. C. L. Chan

Recorded Presentation

Handout (1.4 MB)

2:45 PM

10C.6

**The Importance of Atmospheric Temperature on the Size and Structure of Tropical Cyclones**

Diana R. Stovern, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and E. A. Ritchie

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (748.3 kB)

3:00 PM

10C.7

A Study on the Synoptic-Dynamical Characteristics of Compact Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

Delia Yen-Chu Chen, Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, National Applied Research Laboratories, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. S. Lee and K. K. W. Cheung

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

10C.8

Evaluation of Numerical Models surface wind field structure during rapid changes TC cases using H*Wind and HEDAS

Bachir Annane, NOAA/AOML- Univ. Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy and X. Zhang

3:30 PM

10C.9

Dynamics of Eyewall Contraction: Deep Convective "Left-Movers"

Wallace Hogsett, NOAA/NWS/NHC, Miami, FL; and S. R. Stewart

Recorded Presentation

Session

Afternoon Coffee Break

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Poster Session P2

Poster Session II: Field Experiments, TC Intensity Change, TC Structure, Extratropical Transition, TC Modeling, and Industry

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

P2.1

Multiscale Analyses of Inland Tropical Cyclone–Midlatitude Jet Interactions: Camille (1969) and Danny (1997)

Matthew S. Potter, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser

P2.2

Characteristics of the TIGGE multimodel ensemble prediction system in representing forecast variability associated with extratropical transition

Julia H. Keller, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany; and S. C. Jones, J. L. Evans, and P. A. Harr

P2.3

A comparison of western Pacific ET-induced Rossby wave packets with those associated with midlatitude systems

Ryan Torn, SUNY / Univ. at Albany, Albany, NY; and G. J. Hakim

Handout (1.6 MB)

P2.4

Downstream impact of tropical cyclones: mature baroclinic wave scenario

Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and S. C. Jones

P2.5

Analysis of tropical cyclogenesis within the framework of quasi-steady flow boundaries: select PREDICT cases

Michael Riemer, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, Mainz, Germany; and M. T. Montgomery and M. A. Boothe

P2.6

Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3): Status and Test Flight Results

Scott A. Braun, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and P. A. Newman and M. Vasques

P2.7

A Polygon-based Line Integral Method for Calculating Vorticity, Divergence, and Deformation from Non-uniform Observations

Charles N. Helms, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and R. E. Hart

Manuscript (363.9 kB)

P2.8

A Preliminary Analysis of SMART-R Observations from DYNAMO

Jonathan M. Fliegel, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Schumacher

P2.9

A "Ray" Pattern of Clouds and Precipitation in a Super Cloud Cluster Observed and Simulated during the CINDY2011/DYNAMO Field Campaign

Hiroyuki Yamada, Univ. of the Ryukyus, Nakagami-gun, Japan; and T. Nasuno, C. Schumacher, R. Shirooka, M. Katsumata, M. Satoh, and K. Yoneyama

Handout (3.6 MB)

P2.10

MJO Forecasting during DYNAMO Period in Three General Circulation Models

Xiouhua Fu, IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and W. Wang and P. C. Hsu

P2.11

Overview of ARM cloud and precipitation observations during the AMIE/DYNAMO/CINDY field campaign

Sally A. McFarlane, PNNL, Richland, WA; and C. N. Long, J. M. Comstock, C. Sivaraman, N. Bharadwaj, K. L. Johnson, B. Orr, and M. Ritsche

P2.12

Simulating cloud ensembles using large-scale forcing from the DYNAMO sounding array

Shuguang Wang, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel

P2.13

Daily simulation using the 3-dimensional atmosphere-ocean regional coupled model, CReSS-NHOES over the CINDY/DYNAMO observation region

Taro Shinoda, Nagoya Univ., Nagoya, Japan; and M. K. Yoshioka, H. Aiki, M. Kato, L. F. Smedstad, H. Masunaga, K. Yoneyama, M. Katsumata, K. Tsuboki, and H. Uyeda

P2.14

An Extended Data Set of Hurricane Eyewall Sizes and Slopes

James R. Brisbois, Lawrence University, Appleton, WI; and D. S. Nolan and D. P. Stern

P2.15

Development and Validation of a High-Resolution Hurricane Nature Run Using the ECMWF and WRF Models

David S. Nolan, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and K. Bhatia, R. Atlas, and L. R. Bucci

P2.16

Numerical Simulations and Analysis of Typhoon Morakot (2009) Using the Navy's Mesoscale Prediction Model

Eric Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin, J. R. Moskaitis, J. D. Doyle, M. S. Peng, and R. M. Hodur

P2.17

A numerical simulation of the evolution of the low-level wind speed and rainfall in Hurricane Ivan's (2004) at landfall

Rebecca L. Lanier, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL; and S. K. Kimball

P2.18

Sensitivity of Asymptotic Behavior of Idealized Tropical Cyclone Intensification to Parameterizations of the Atmospheric Boundary Mixing

Sara A. Michelson, NOAA/ESRL/PSD and CIRES/Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and J. W. Bao

P2.19

The Use of Gamma Functions to Quantify the Dependence of Hurricane Size Distributions on Total Water Content, Vertical Velocity, Temperature and Tropical Cyclone Development Stage

Jeana R. Mascio, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. M. McFarquhar and A. Dooley

P2.20

The Contribution of the Non-axisymmetrical Component in Inner Core to the Maximum Intensity of the Simulated Tropical Cyclones

Satoki Tsujino, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan; and K. Tsuboki

Handout (790.2 kB)

P2.21

Multi-Scale Analysis of Observations of Tropical Cyclones with Applications to High-Resolution Hurricane Modeling

Sam Trahan, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and L. C. Sparling

P2.22

Impacts of Surface Roughness Lengths on Typhoon Simulations

Akiyoshi Wada, MRI, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; and N. Kohno

Manuscript (944.0 kB)

Handout (1.1 MB)

P2.23

Effects of Turbulence Parameterization on Hurricane Simulations

P2.24

Comparison of the intensity evolution during Tropical Storms Gabrielle (2001) and Edouard (2002) using the method of point downscaling in a high resolution model

Matthew Onderlinde, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

Manuscript (422.1 kB)

P2.25

On the use of potential vorticity tendency equations for diagnosing atmospheric dynamics in numerical models

Kevin J. Tory, Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; and J. D. Kepert and J. Sippel

Handout (295.3 kB)

P2.26

Energy Flow in a High Resolution 3D Tropical Cyclone Simulation

Morgan E. O'Neill, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel

P2.27

An Ensemble Approach to Examining the Role of Cloud Condensation Nuclei on the Evolution of Idealized Tropical Cyclones

R. J. Maliawco Jr., University of Illinois, Urbana, IL; and G. M. McFarquhar and B. F. Jewett

P2.28

Evolution of Hurricane-like Eyewall Structures using a Divergent, Normal-Mode Spectral Model

Thomas A. Guinn, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL

Manuscript (2.1 MB)

Handout (2.7 MB)

P2.29

Structures of spiral rainbands in numerically simulated tropical cyclones

Yumin Moon, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. S. Nolan

P2.30

The formation and organization of spiral rainbands in numerically simulated tropical cyclones

Yumin Moon, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and D. S. Nolan

P2.31

Investigating the Factors Responsible for Secondary Eyewall Formation in an Ensemble of High-resolution Hurricane Simulations

Kristen L. Corbosiero, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY; and R. D. Torn

P2.32

Investigation of Cloud Representation from Stratocumulus to Deep Convection in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Chia-Jung Pi, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and J. L. Li and J. P. Chen

P2.33

Modeling studies of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones using HWRF

Travis Washington, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and S. Chiao

P2.34

Sensitivity of intensity and track forecasting of Hurricane Earl (2010) to single- and double-moment microphysics parameterization schemes

Jili Dong, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD; and M. Xue

P2.35

Estimates for surface exchange coefficients and turbulence length scales using numerical simulations

George H. Bryan, NCAR, Boulder, CO

Handout (3.3 MB)

P2.36

The Impacts of Effective Diffusion on the Axisymmetrization Process

Stephen Guimond, NASA / GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and J. M. Reisner

P2.37

Does the tropical cyclone's response to vertical wind shear depend on the near-core tangential wind structure?

Paul Reasor, NOAA, Miami, FL; and M. T. Montgomery

P2.38

Evolution of mass transport between the eye and eyewall of Hurricane Guillermo (1997)

Matthew D. Eastin, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC; and P. Reasor

P2.39

Friction Residual of the Near-Surface Momentum Budget at the Eyewall: Role of the Radial Momentum Transport

Eric W. Uhlhorn, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and J. Zhang

P2.40

On the Asymmetries of Hurricane Cores

David A. Schecter, NorthWest Research Associates, Boulder, CO

P2.41

Examining Surface Momentum Balance and Boundary Layer Conditions in Extreme Tropical Cyclones

Bradley W. Klotz, NOAA/AOML - Univ. of Miami/CIMAS, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn, J. A. Zhang, and M. Fischer

P2.42

Environmental Characteristics of Eyewall Replacement Cycles

Eric Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng and H. C. Kuo

P2.43

The Entropy Budget of Several 2010 Atlantic Hurricanes

Ana Juracic, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and J. P. Dunion

P2.44

A New Parametric Tropical Cyclone Pressure-Wind Profile Model

Vincent T. Wood, NOAA/OAR, Norman, OK; and L. W. White, D. P. Jorgensen, and H. E. Willoughby

Manuscript (330.0 kB)

Handout (1.1 MB)

P2.45

Comparative tropical cyclone core structure climatology from reconnaissance and satellite observations

Joshua Cossuth, Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

P2.46

Intensity and Structure Changes During Hurricane Eyewall Replacement Cycles

Matthew Sitkowski, CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and J. P. Kossin, C. M. Rozoff, and J. A. Knaff

P2.47

Revisiting the Relationship Between Eyewall Contraction and Intensification

Daniel P. Stern, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and J. L. Vigh, D. S. Nolan, and F. Zhang

P2.48

On the low-level inner-core structure in relation to the environmental vertical wind shear

Jun A. Zhang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and R. F. Rogers, P. D. Reasor, J. J. Cione, and E. W. Uhlhorn

P2.49

Hurricane sea-surface inflow angle and an observation-based parametric model of the two-dimensional wind field

Jun A. Zhang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and E. W. Uhlhorn

P2.50

Influence of Convective Bursts and Electrification on the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Earl 2010

Janel R. Thomas, JCET/Univ. of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD

P2.51

The impact of gradient wind imbalance on potential intensity of tropical cyclones

Thomas Frisius, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; and D. Schönemann and J. L. Vigh

P2.52

The Rapid Collapse of Hurricane Felicia (2009) near Hawaii

P2.53

An Objective Aid for DoD Base Preparations in Advance of Tropical Cyclones

Charles Sampson, NRL, Monterey, CA; and A. B. Schumacher, J. Knaff, M. DeMaria, E. M. Fukada, C. Sisko, D. P. Roberts, K. A. Winters, and H. M. Wilson

P2.54

Probabilistic Forecasting of US Market Insured Loss

Mark A. Saunders, University College London, Dorking, Surrey, United Kingdom; and A. S. R. Lea

P2.55

Large-Scale Scope of Damage Prediction Model for Landfalling Hurricanes

Joseph Spain, ImpactWeather, Inc., Houston, TX; and C. Hebert

P2.56

Assessing tropical cyclone flood risk in Australia – Implications for catastrophe modeling

Jason Butke, AIR Worldwide Corp, Boston, MA; and P. J. Sousounis

Manuscript (1.6 MB)

P2.57

Cyclone Yasi storm surge in Australia – Implications for catastrophe modeling

Kevin A. Hill, AIR Worldwide Corporation, Boston, MA; and P. J. Sousounis

Manuscript (1.3 MB)

Session

30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology Banquet at the Cabana Club

Location: Sawgrass Marriott

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session 11A

DYNAMO/CINDY2011 IV

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Courtney Schumacher, Texas A&M University

8:00 AM

11A.1

An overview of the NCAR S-PolKa radar operations during DYNAMO

Scott Ellis, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Vivekanandan, T. M. Weckwerth, R. A. Rilling, J. Hubbert, W. C. Lee, R. A. Houze Jr., S. W. Powell, and C. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

11A.2

Indian Ocean Convection as seen by the S-PolKa radar in DYNAMO

Robert A. Houze Jr., Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

11A.3

The MJO Cloud Population as Seen by TRMM, DYNAMO, and AMIE Radars

Hannah C. Barnes, Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr. and S. R. Brodzik

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

11A.4

In-Situ and W-Band Radar Measurements of Ice Microphysics for Megha-Tropiques validation

Nicolas Viltard, CNRS-UVSQ, Guyancourt, France; and J. Delanoë, A. Schawrtzenböeck, C. Bovalo, C. Caudoux, M. Ceccaldi, R. Dupuy, C. Duroure, J. P. Duvel, E. Fontaine, C. Gourbeyre, N. M. J. Hall, A. Martini, A. Protat, K. Ramage, R. Roca, J. P. Vinson, and A. Bourdon

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

11A.5

DYNAMO Convective Systems – Insights from Data Provided by the NOAA P-3 Aircraft

David P. Jorgensen, NOAA/NSSL, Norman, OK; and S. S. Chen and Q. Wang

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

11A.6

Comparisons of simulated and observed mesoscale systems over the Indian Ocean during DYNAMO/AMIE

Scott W. Powell, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and R. A. Houze, Jr., A. Kumar, and S. A. McFarlane

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

11A.7

Model Simulated Equatorial Convection over the Indian Ocean

Sue Chen, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. Flatau, T. Jensen, J. Cummings, T. Shinoda, and P. May

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

11A.8

Vertical Structure and Diabatic Processes of the MJO: A Global Model Evaluation Project

Duane E. Waliser, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and X. Jiang, J. Petch, P. K. Xavier, S. Woolnough, and N. P. Klingaman

Recorded Presentation

Session 11C

Convection I

Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Robert Korty, Texas A&M

11C.1

Latent heating profiles and the self-amplification of deep convection

8:15 AM

11C.2

The sensitivities of convection to large-scale temperature and moisture perturbations

Ji Nie, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

11C.3

Linear response functions of shallow convection from Large Eddy Simulations and two parameterizations

Zhiming Kuang, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and J. Nie

8:45 AM

11C.4

Analysis of convective motions based on the Mean Air Flow as Lagrangian dynamics approximation

Olivier Pauluis, New York University, New York, NY; and A. A. Mrowiec

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

11C.5

Impact of imposed drying on deep convection in a cloud-resolving model

Shuguang Wang, Columbia Univ., New York, NY; and A. H. Sobel

9:15 AM

11C.6

**Estimating Vertical Motion Profile Shape within Tropical Weather States**

Zachary Handlos, University of Wisconsin - Madison, Madison, WI; and L. E. Back

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (399.0 kB)

9:30 AM

11C.7

**Initiation of orographic moist convection in the tropics**

Alison D. Nugent, National Center for Atmospheric Research, CO; and R. B. Smith

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.5 MB)

9:45 AM

11C.8

Using the stochastic multicloud model to improve tropical convective parameterization: A paradigm example

Yevgeniy Frenkel, New York University, New York, NY; and A. J. Majda and B. Khouider

Recorded Presentation

Session 11B

ITOP

Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Simon Chang, NRL

8:00 AM

11B.1

Coupled Air-Sea Observations of Tropical Cyclones in ITOP

Shuyi S. Chen, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Lee and B. Kerns

8:15 AM

11B.2

Creation of the Systematically Merged Pacific Ocean Regional Temperature and Salinity (SPORTS) Climatology For Typhoon Intensity Forecasts

E. Claire McCaskill, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. K. Brewster and L. K. Shay

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

11B.3

Ocean's Impact on the Intensity of Three Recent Typhoons (Fanapi, Malakas, and Megi) – Results from the ITOP Field Experiment

I.-I. Lin, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Taipei, Taiwan

8:45 AM

11B.4

Formation and Recovery of a Cold Wake from Typhoon Fanapi (2010)

Shouping Wang, NRL, Monterey, CA; and H. Jin, P. Black, S. Chen, S. Chen, and L. W. O'Neill

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

11B.5

Tropical Cyclone – Ocean Interaction in Typhoon Fanapi (2010) during ITOP

Chun-Chieh Wu, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and S. L. Sung and P. S. Wang

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

11B.6

Coupled COAMPS-TC Real-Time Forecasts for the ITOP Experiment

Hao Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Wang, S. Chen, and J. Doyle

9:30 AM

11B.7

Air-Ocean Factors throughout the Formation and Intensification of Typhoon Malakas during the Impact of Typhoons on the Pacific (ITOP) Field Program

Patrick A. Harr, NSF, Arlington, VA; and A. Penny and R. Creasey

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

11B.8

A Dropwindsonde Analysis of the Thermodynamic and Dynamic Structure and Evolution of STY Megi (2010)

Andrew B. Penny, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. G. Black, R. Creasey, and P. A. Harr

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

11B.9

Dropsonde Observations of Eyewall Boundary Layer Structure in Super-Typhoons Megi (2010) and Jangmi (2008

Peter G. Black, SAIC/NRL, Monterey, CA; and A. B. Penny, R. Creasey, and P. Harr

Recorded Presentation

Session 11D

Tropical Waves I

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Anantha R. Aiyyer, North Carolina State University

11D.1

Coupled convective modes in the tropics and intraseasonal oscillation

8:15 AM

11D.2

**The Influence of the MJO on Upstream Precursors to African Easterly Waves**

Ghassan J. Alaka Jr., NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and E. Maloney

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00232.1

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.5 MB)

8:30 AM

11D.3

**Tropical Precipitation Variability and Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves in Reanalyses and TRMM Observations**

Ji-Eun Kim, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and M. J. Alexander

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.6 MB)

8:45 AM

11D.4

Structure and Evolution of Developing and Non-developing African Easterly Waves during NAMMA

Nelsie A. Ramos, Howard University, Washington, DC; and S. D. Aberson and V. Morris

Recorded Presentation

Handout (4.3 MB)

9:00 AM

11D.5

Group Velocity of African Easterly Waves

Michael L. Diaz, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

11D.6

**Analysis of the structure and genesis of tropical easterly waves in the Caribbean Sea and eastern North Pacific using the WRF model**

Ewan C. Crosbie, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ; and Y. Serra

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (3.3 MB)

9:30 AM

11D.7

**A convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin wave's impact on African easterly wave activity**

Michael J. Ventrice, SUNY, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (761.2 kB)

9:45 AM

11D.8

**African Easterly Waves in the Superparametrized Community Atmosphere Model (SP-CAM)**

Rachel McCrary, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and D. A. Randall

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.5 MB)

Session

A.M. Coffee Break

Location: Sawgrass Marriott

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session 12A

GRIP II

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Edward J. Zipser, Univ. of Utah

10:30 AM

12A.1

Observations of C-band brightness temperatures and ocean surface wind speed and rain rate from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) during GRIP

Timothy L. Miller, NASA/MSFC, Huntsville, AL; and M. W. James, J. B. Roberts, C. D. Buckley, L. Jones, S. Biswas, C. May, C. S. Ruf, E. W. Uhlhorn, R. Atlas, P. G. Black, and C. M. Albers

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

12A.2

Results and Lessons Learned from the First Flights of the HIWRAP on the Global Hawk During GRIP

Gerald M. Heymsfield, NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and S. Guimond, L. Tian, L. Li, M. Mclinden, M. Perrine, and A. E. Reynolds

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

12A.3

**Analysis of Hurricane Eye Slope Using Reflectivity Data From Airborne Doppler Radar: Composites and Case Studies**

Andrew Todd Hazelton, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and R. E. Hart

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (612.0 kB)

11:15 AM

12A.4

Development of the SMARTS Climatology for Upper Ocean Thermal Structure Estimation

Patrick C. Meyers, Univ. of Maryland, Riverdale Park, MD; and J. K. Brewster and L. K. Shay

11:30 AM

12A.5

Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Structure from Conically Scanning Airborne Doppler Radar: IWRAP and HIWRAP

Stephen Guimond, NASA / GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and G. M. Heymsfield and S. Frasier

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

12A.6

Vertical Distribution of Radar Reflectivity, Moisture, and Thermodynamic Variables in Hurricanes in the Presence of Shear

Jennifer C. DeHart, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze, Jr.

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

12A.7

Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3): A multi-year investigation of Atlantic hurricanes

Scott A. Braun, NASA, Greenbelt, MD; and P. A. Newman

Recorded Presentation

Session 12B

Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones I

Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Chris Fogarty, EC

10:30 AM

12B.1

Singular Vectors and Perturbation Growth Mechanisms for Barotropic Vortices in Horizontal Shear

Leonhard Scheck, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and S. C. Jones and V. Heuveline

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

12B.2

A Case Study for the Downstream Development of Baroclinic Waves in the Midlatitude Jet Induced by Extratropical Transition

Hua Chen, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

12B.3

The Impact of Western Pacific Tropical Cyclones on North Pacific Jet Circulations

Andrea A. Lang, SUNY, Albany, NY; and L. F. Bosart and D. Keyser

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

12B.4

A comparison of the influence of recurving and nonrecurving tropical cyclones on the intensification of the North Pacific jet stream

Jason M. Cordeira, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and L. Bosart, D. Keyser, and H. Archambault

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

12B.5

Recurving Tropical Cyclone–Extratropical Flow Interactions and their Influence on the Large-Scale Flow Pattern: A Diagnostic and Modeling Study

Heather M. Archambault, NPS, Monterey, CA; and P. A. Harr, R. W. Moore, L. F. Bosart, D. Keyser, and J. M. Cordeira

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

12B.6

**A 40-year climatology of extratropical transition in the eastern North Pacific**

Kimberly M. Wood, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS; and E. A. Ritchie

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.4 MB)

12B.7

Physically-based path clustering of ensemble forecasts for extratropically transitioning tropical cyclones

Session 12D

Tropical Large Scale Circulation and Intraseasonal Variability I

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Adam H. Sobel, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory

10:30 AM

12D.1

Cloud-system-resolving large-domain simulations of tropical convection and the MJO

Christopher E. Holloway, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and S. Woolnough and G. Lister

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

12D.2

On the relation between the ENSO cycle, its irregularity and decadal variation

Maria Gehne, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and R. Kleeman

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

12D.3

Simulations of Walker circulation with sparse space and time superparameterization

Joanna Slawinska, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York, NY; and O. Pauluis, A. J. Majda, and W. W. Grabowski

11:15 AM

12D.4

The Deep and Shallow Hadley Circulations

Alex Omar Gonzalez, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

12D.5

A Mesoscale Decomposition of the Tropical Hadley Cell

Justin P. Stachnik, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX; and C. Schumacher and C. L. Lappen

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

12D.6

**Possible Influence of February-April Arctic Oscillation on the ITCZ Patterns of Western-Central Pacific**

Miao Hu, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; and D. Y. Gong

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (413.0 kB)

12:00 PM

12D.7

Decadal change of tropical precipitation associated with Indo-Pacific zonal oscillation

Jian Liu, Key Laboratory of Virtual Geographic Environment of Ministry of Education, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, China; and B. Wang and S. Y. Yim

Session 12C

Convection II

Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Larissa E. Back, University of Wisconsin- Madison

10:30 AM

12C.1

A Persistent Regime of Organized Convection without a Mesoscale Downdraft

Todd P. Lane, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and M. W. Moncrieff

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

12C.2

Parameterizing Large-Scale Dynamics: A Comparison of WTG and WPG

David M. Romps, Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA

11:00 AM

12C.3

Lagrangian Analysis of Convective Entrainment

Kyongmin Yeo, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center, New York, NY; and D. M. Romps

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

12C.4

Organization of Tropical Convection: Dependence of Self-Aggregation on SST in an Idealized Modeling Study

Allison A. Wing, MIT, Cambridge, MA; and K. Emanuel

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.2 MB)

11:30 AM

12C.5

Self-aggregation of moist convection in a conditionally unstable environment

Joerg Schumacher, Ilmenau University of Technology, Ilmenau, Germany; and O. Pauluis and T. Weidauer

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

12C.6

The effects of aggregated convection in cloud-resolved radiative-convective equilibrium

Marat F. Khairoutdinov, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY; and K. Emanuel

Manuscript (1.4 MB)

12:00 PM

12C.7

Interaction of Convection and Frictional Convergence

Zeljka Fuchs, New Mexico Tech, University of Split, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond and M. J. Herman

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

12C.8

Linear response functions of two convective parameterization schemes

Michael J. Herman, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and Z. Kuang

Recorded Presentation

Lunch Break

Location: Sawgrass Marriott

Session 13B

Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones II

Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Heather M. Archambault, NPS

1:30 PM

13B.1

Precipitation modulation by the Saint Lawrence River Valley in association with transitioning tropical cyclones

Shawn M. Milrad, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Daytona Beach, FL; and E. H. Atallah and J. R. Gyakum

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

13B.2

The role of the "phasing" of the tropical cyclone and the midlatitude flow during extratropical transition: T-PARC Typhoon Jangmi (2008) and other case studies

Christian M. Grams, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, BW, Germany; and S. C. Jones and C. A. Davis

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

13B.3

On the Sharp Track Change and Rapid Intensification of SuperTyphoon Chanchu (2006)

Yongqing Wang, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing China, Nanjing Jiangsu, 210044, China; and W. Hogsett, D. L. Zhang, and L. Wu

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

13B.4

Structural characteristics of Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) during its extratropical transition: an observational study

Julian F. Quinting, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and S. C. Jones, P. A. Harr, and M. M. Bell

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.7 MB)

2:30 PM

13B.5

Structural characteristics of the core region of T-PARC Typhoon Sinlaku in a vertically sheared environment

Annette M. Foerster, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany; and M. M. Bell, P. A. Harr, and S. C. Jones

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

13B.6

The Eddy Kinetic Energy Budget for Several Forecast Scenarios of the Extratropical Transition of Typhoon Choi-Wan

Julia H. Keller, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany; and S. C. Jones and P. A. Harr

Recorded Presentation

Characteristics of Hurricane Bertha (2008) near Bermuda

Session 13C

Convection III

Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: David M. Romps, Univ. of California

1:30 PM

13C.1

Lifecycle of organized convective systems: A Lagrangian perspective

Samson M. Hagos, PNNL, Richland, WA; and S. A. McFarlane and L. R. Leung

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

13C.2

From Shallow to Deep Convection

Cathy Hohenegger, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; and B. Stevens

2:00 PM

13C.3

A stochastic model for tropical precipitation and extreme events

Samuel N. Stechmann, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and J. D. Neelin

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

13C.4

Convective Response to Diurnal Forcing in Weak Temperature Gradient Simulations

Sharon L. Sessions, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond and C. Lopez-Carrillo

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

13C.5

**The Large-Scale Properties of Tropical Convection**

Jackson Tan, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; and C. Jakob

http://users.monash.edu.au/~btan/regimes/details.html

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.4 MB)

2:45 PM

13C.6

Simulation of the Diurnal Cycle in Convective Rainfall over Land with a new Convective Parameterization

Ian Folkins, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

13C.7

**Developing a Simple Numerical Model in Moist Air for Studying Cloud Formation Processes in the Tropics**

Chantawan Noisri, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi, Bangmod, Toongkru, Thailand; and R. H. B. Exell and D. Sukawat

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (131.3 kB)

Handout (131.3 kB)

3:15 PM

13C.8

Toward understanding the effects of mesoscale organization on large-scale wave, deep convection interaction

Emily M. Riley Dellaripa, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and B. E. Mapes

Recorded Presentation

Session 13D

Tropical Large Scale Circulation and Intraseasonal Variability II

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Katherine H. Straub, Susquehanna University

1:30 PM

13D.1

Nonlinear Dynamics and Regional Variations in the MJO Skeleton

Andrew J. Majda, Courant Institute, New York University, New York, NY; and S. N. Stechmann

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

13D.2

Multi-scale waves in an MJO background and CMT feedback

Boualem Khouider, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and Y. Han Jr., A. J. Majda, and S. N. Stechmann

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

13D.3

The sensitivity of propagation of the MJO-like anomaly observed in SPCAM to variations in the Aquaplanet Climate

Joseph Allan Andersen, Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA; and Z. Kuang

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

13D.4

Heating and moisture profiles in high resolution simulations of the Madden Julian Oscillation: What the coarse resolution experiments are missing

Marcela Ulate, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

13D.5

Does the MJO make ENSO more, not less, predictable?

Atul Kapur, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

13D.6

**Modulation of the MJO PV Budget by Atmospheric Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves**

Kyle MacRitchie, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (2.4 MB)

3:00 PM

13D.7

Apparent coupling between atmospheric convection and oceanic Kelvin waves

Robert Michael Setzenfand, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (625.5 kB)

3:15 PM

13D.8

**The Formation and Evolution of the 1989 Western North Pacific Subtropical Gyre**

Brian Andrew Crandall, University at Albany, SUNY, Albany, NY; and J. Molinari

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (604.0 kB)

Session 13A

IFEX & HFIP I: Ensemble Forecasting and Data Assimilation

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Robert F. Rogers, NOAA/AOML/HRD

1:30 PM

14A.1

Prediction of tropical cyclone intensity and track using COAMPS-TC

James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur, S. Chen, J. Cummings, E. Hendricks, T. Holt, H. Jin, Y. Jin, C. S. Liou, J. R. Moskaitis, M. S. Peng, P. A. Reinecke, K. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, and S. Wang

Recorded Presentation

1:45 PM

13A.1

Creation of a Statistical Ensemble for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction

Kate D. Musgrave, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and B. D. McNoldy and M. DeMaria

Recorded Presentation

2:00 PM

13A.2

Tropical Cyclone Prediction Through Multi-model Ensemble Forecast and Reforecast Bias-correction

Jiayi Peng, EMC, College Park, MD; and Y. Zhu and R. Wobus

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

13A.3

Evaluation of a GFDL hurricane model ensemble forecast system

Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and M. J. Morin and M. Bender

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

15A.5

The Impacts of GPS Radio Occultation Data on the Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones

Ying-Hwa Kuo, UCAR, Boulder, CO; and X. Fang and H. Liu

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

13A.4

Real-time ensemble prediction and data assimilation of tropical cyclones with COAMPS-TC

P. Alexander Reinecke, NRL, Monterey, CA; and D. Hodyss, J. Moskaitas, and J. Doyle

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

13A.7

Performance of Cloud-permitting Hurricane Prediction through Assimilating High-resolution Airborne Doppler Radar and Satellite-derived Inner-core Observations

Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA; and Y. Weng, X. Ge, and J. Knaff

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

13A.6

Development of a regional hybrid variational/ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system for tropical cyclones

Jeffrey S. Whitaker, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO; and H. Winterbottom, M. Tong, and T. Vukicevic

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

13A.8

The Experimental HWRF-HEDAS system: Using satellite and airborne observations from GRIP/PREDICT/IFEX to evaluate the model and to assess the impact of data assimilation

Svetla M. Hristova-Veleva, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and S. Gopalakrishnan, T. Vukicevic, Z. S. Haddad, S. D. Aberson, T. Quirino, F. J. Turk, P. P. Li, B. W. Knosp, B. H. Lambrigtsen, S. L. Durden, and S. Tanelli

Recorded Presentation

Session

Afternoon Coffee Break

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Poster Session P3

Poster Session III: African Climate, Monsoon, Tropical Large Scale, Convection, Tropical Waves, Data Assimilation, Ocean Observations, Air-Sea Interaction

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

P3.1

Improving our knowledge of African weather and climate – Climate Science Research Partnership (CSRP)

Caroline L. Bain, UK Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; and R. Graham, C. Senior, D. Rowell, W. Moufouma-Okia, M. Vellinga, and R. Comer

Manuscript (629.1 kB)

P3.2

Mid-21st century changes in extreme events over Northern and Tropical Africa

Edward Vizy, Department of Geological Sciences, Austin, TX; and K. H. Cook

Handout (3.6 MB)

P3.3

Vertical distribution of Saharan dust and radiative forcing over the northern tropical Atlantic

Weijie Wang, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA; and A. Evan

P3.4

On the dynamics of north African squall lines

Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO

P3.5

Determination of Cloud Seeding Potential by using Instability Indices

Foroozan Arkian, Marine Research and Technology Faculty, Tehran North Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran; and H. Hamidi

P3.6

Testing convective transport on short timescales: comparisons with mass divergence and ozone anomaly patterns about high rain events

Toni Mitovski, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada; and I. Folkins, R. Martin, and M. Cooper

P3.7

Bayesian Inference for the Stochastic Multicloud Model

Michèle De La Chevrotière, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; and B. Khouider and A. J. Majda

P3.8

Rectification of the Diurnal Cycle Over Small Islands in Radiative-Convective Equilibrium

Timothy W. Cronin, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA; and K. A. Emanuel

Manuscript (904.8 kB)

Handout (1005.8 kB)

P3.9

Convection-permitting simulations of diurnally forced convection over the Maritime Continent

Muhammad E. Hassim, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and T. P. Lane, S. Caine, S. Webster, M. Black, C. Jakob, and S. C. Sherwood

P3.10

Convectively coupled wave-environment interactions

Samuel N. Stechmann, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI; and A. J. Majda and D. Skjorshammer

P3.11

Simple models for the diurnal cycle and convectively coupled waves

Yevgeniy Frenkel, Center for Atmosphere Ocean Science and Department of Mathematics, New York University, New York, NY; and A. J. Majda and B. Khouider

P3.12

Intraseasonal modulation of African Easterly Wave activity

Stephanie Leroux, SUNY, University of Albany, Albany, NY; and C. D. Thorncroft and J. Cerrato

P3.13

Numerical Simulation of Tropical Cyclogenesis From a Long-lived Easterly Wave

Anantha Aiyyer, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC; and D. Church

P3.14

A climatology of Kelvin waves in the Eastern Pacific and its role in extreme precipitation events in Southern Mexico and Central America

Victor M. Torres, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft

P3.15

Construction and Characterization of Merged Atmospheric-Oceanic Temperature Profiles from Dropsondes and AXBT's during the ITOP Project

Kathryn Young, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and J. Moore, J. Wang, J. Schaffer, P. Harr, E. D'Asaro, and S. Loehrer

P3.16

Impact of Air-Sea Interaction on the Genesis of Tropical Incipient Vortex over South China Sea―A Case Study

P3.17

How do anomalous heat fluxes affect the maximum tangential velocity in a tropical cyclone?

Kosuke Ito, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and Y. Ishikawa, Y. Miyamoto, T. Awaji, and C. C. Wu

P3.18

On surface fluxes and tropical cyclone intensification

Eric D. Rappin, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

P3.19

Influence of the interannual variability of tropical cyclones on the western Gulf of Mexico circulation

Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, DF, Mexico; and M. E. Allende-Arandía, A. Mateos-Jasso, and R. Romero-Centeno

P3.20

Is the surface wind asymmetry in a tropical cyclone affected by ocean surface waves?

Jeffrey D. Kepert, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, VIC, Australia

P3.21

Observed Influence of the Atlantic Warm Pool on Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

Michael Kozar, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and V. Misra

P3.22

The Thermal Effect of the Tropical Western Pacific on the Interannual Variability of Monsoon Trough Tropical Cyclone and Typhoon Activity over the Northwest Pacific

RongHui Huang, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and L. Wu, T. Feng, and J. Zhang

Manuscript (1.1 MB)

P3.23

The Influence of Monsoon Trough on Tropical Cyclones over Western North Pacific: Role of Tropical Waves

Liang Wu, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and R. Huang and Z. Wen

Manuscript (1.2 MB)

P3.24

Energetic constraints on monsoonal Hadley circulations

Timothy M. Merlis, Princeton University and GFDL, Princeton, NJ; and T. Schneider, S. Bordoni, and I. Eisenman

P3.25

The Intraseasonal Variability of Precipitable Water Vapor during West African Monsoon

Emmanuel D. Poan, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and R. Roehrig, F. Couvreux, and J. P. Lafore

Handout (3.5 MB)

P3.26

Structure of the Western North Pacific Monsoon Depression

Jodi Beattie, NPS, Monterey, CA; and R. L. Elsberry

P3.27

Experimental Intraseasonal Forecasting of Asian Summer Monsoon

Xiouhua Fu, IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and W. Wang, J. Y. Lee, and F. Vitart

P3.28

Climatologies of ultra‐low clouds over the southern West African monsoon region and their representation in the Weather Research and Forecasting model WRF

Andreas H. Fink, University of Cologne, Köln, Germany; and R. Schuster, R. van der Linden, J. M. Schrage, C. Akpanya, and C. Yorke

Manuscript (5.2 MB)

Handout (5.9 MB)

P3.29

The Impact of Anomalous Aerosol Heating on the Onset of the Asian Summer Monsoon

Andrew Martin, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and T. N. Krishnamurti and W. K. M. Lau

P3.30

Application of the isentropic analysis of convective motions for gravity wave filtering in the TWP-ICE IOP 2006 Australian Monsoon

Agnieszka A. Mrowiec, NASA GISS / Columbia University, New York, NY; and O. Pauluis, A. M. Fridlind, and A. S. Ackerman

P3.31

Impact of the Tibetan Plateau on the Asian monsoon. II: Seasonal evolution of the South Asian monsoon

Hyo Seok Park, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. Bordoni

P3.32

Evolution of Potential Vorticity as a Sign of MJO Initiation: A Case Study

Jian Ling, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang

P3.33

Potential Vorticity Accumulation Following Atmospheric Kelvin Waves in the Active Convective Region of the MJO

Kyle MacRitchie, SUNY, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

Handout (1.2 MB)

P3.34

The Relationship Between Atmospheric Rivers and the MJO

farnaz hosseinpour, new mexico tech, socorro, NM; and D. J. Raymond

http://sites.google.com/site/farnazhosseinpourhomepage/

Manuscript (7.9 kB)

Handout (2.4 MB)

P3.35

The seasonal variability in the global atmospheric circulation associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Naoko Sakaeda, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and P. E. Roundy

P3.36

Investigating the thermodynamic control of the Madden-Julian oscillation using weak temperature gradient approximation

S. Barkidija, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and S. Sessions and Z. Fuchs

P3.37

Responses in the Extratropical Circulation over the North Pacific Ocean and North America in Association with Combined Activity of the Madden – Julian Oscillation and Equatorial Rossby Waves

Lawrence C. Gloeckler III, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

Manuscript (5.2 MB)

P3.38

Seasonal Modulation of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations on Tropical Cyclone Geneses in the Western North Pacific

Ping Huang, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; and C. Chou and R. H. Huang

P3.39

A Possible Root Cause of the Equatorial Atlantic Systematic Biases in Global Climate Models

David Zermeno, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and C. Zhang

P3.40

Changes in Western Pacific tropical cyclones associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycle

Cheuk Yin Li, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong; and W. Zhou

Handout (3.5 MB)

P3.41

An Analysis of Central American Gyres

Philippe P. Papin, University at Albany/SUNY, Albany, NY; and K. S. Griffin, L. F. Bosart, and R. D. Torn

P3.42

The Tropical Subseasonal Variability Simulated in the NASA GISS General Circulation Model

Daehyun Kim, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY; and A. H. Sobel, A. D. Del Genio, Y. Chen, S. J. Camargo, M. S. Yao, and M. Kelley

P3.43

The sensitivity of multiple equilibria to sea surface temperature changes in WTG simulations

Stipo Sentic, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, Socorro, NM; and S. Sessions

Manuscript (412.0 kB)

Handout (1.2 MB)

P3.44

Four-year Coupling between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Water Vapor Transport over East Asia

Xiuzhen Li, City University of Hongkong, Hongkong, Hong Kong; and W. Zhou

Manuscript (3.6 MB)

Handout (10.3 MB)

P3.45

Bimodal Representation of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation

Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang and Y. Kajikawa

P3.46

Precipitation Anomalies in the Deep Tropics Following the Sudden Stratospheric Warming

Usama M. Anber, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, New York, NY; and L. M. Polvani and A. H. Sobel

P3.47

Ensemble Simulation of Rainfall in Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) Based on EnKF Data Assimilation

Shih-Chieh Lin, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

P3.48

Toward Understanding the Climatic Role of Tropical Cyclones Using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model: Experiment Design, Model Evaluation, and Preliminary Results

Henry Winterbottom, EMC, Boulder, CO; and P. Pegion and R. E. Hart

P3.49

Evaluating Wind and Temperature Structure in Analyses and Forecasts for PSU Real-Time HFIP Simulations

Daniel P. Stern, UCAR, Monterey, CA; and F. Zhang

P3.50

Tropical cyclone initialization and dynamic adjustment: Sensitivity studies

Eric D. Rappin, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan and S. J. Majumdar

P3.51

Impact of Assimilation of Ground-based Doppler Radar Data on the Initialization and Prediction Super Typhoon Jangmi (2008)

Ningzhu Du, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue

P3.52

Rainfall Simulation of Typhoon Morakot with Controlled Translation Speed Based on EnKF Data Assimilation

Tzu-Hsiung Yen, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and G. Y. Lien

Session S3

Special Evening Session: 75 Years of AEW Research: Historical Perspectives, Recent Advances, and Future Challenges

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chairs: Andreas H. Fink, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology; Peter Knippertz, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology

7:30 PM

S3.1

To the 75th anniversary of the discovery of African Easterly Waves

Andreas H. Fink, University of Cologne, Köln, Germany

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (816.5 kB)

7:45 PM

S3.2

Variability of African easterly wave structures and behavior

Chris D. Thorncroft, SUNY, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and G. N. Kiladis

Recorded Presentation

8:00 PM

S3.3

The Diurnal Cycle of the West African Monsoon and its Relationship to African Easterly Waves

Caroline L. Bain, UK Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.1 MB)

8:15 PM

S3.4

**Mesoscale Convective Systems associated with African Easterly Waves**

Matthew A. Janiga, SUNY at Albany, Albany, NY; and C. Thorncroft

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (583.3 kB)

8:30 PM

S3.5

Variability of InterTropical Front (ITF) and Mesoscale Convective Weather Systems (MCWSs) over West African Soudano-Sahel Zone

Peter J. Lamb, CIMMS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. A. Bell and M. I. LeLe

8:45 PM

S3.6

The Importance of African Easterly Waves for Dust Emission and Transport

Peter Knippertz, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; and M. C. Todd and A. H. Fink

Recorded Presentation

9:00 PM

S3.7

A Review of African Easterly Wave-Cyclogenesis Research and Challenges

Michael T. Montgomery, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA

9:15 PM

S3.8

AEWs and weather prediction in West Africa

Jean-Philippe Lafore, Météo France, Toulouse, France; and F. Beucher

Recorded Presentation

Session 14A

IFEX & HFIP II: Model Development and Performance

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Timothy Marchok, NOAA/GFDL

8:00 AM

13A.5

Dynamic Initialization for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Prediction

Eric Hendricks, NRL, Monterey, CA; and M. S. Peng, T. Li, and X. Ge

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

14A.2

Operational Implementation of High-Resolution Triple-Nested HWRF at NCEP/EMC - A Major Step Towards Addressing Intensity Forecast Problem

Vijay Tallapragada, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Y. C. Kwon, S. Liu, S. Trahan, Z. Zhang, E. Aligo, C. Kieu, W. Wang, J. Oconnor, R. E. Tuleya, S. Gopalakrishnan, X. Zhang, B. Lapenta, F. D. Marks Jr., and R. L. Gall

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

14A.3

HWRFV3.2 System: Transition of the High-Resolution, Research Version of HWRF to Operations

Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and V. Tallapragada, X. Zhang, S. B. Goldenberg, T. Quirino, K. Yeh, and F. Marks

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

14A.4

2012 HWRF: Challenges in Bringing a High-Resolution Model to Operations

Sam Trahan, EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and Z. Zhang, X. Zhang, S. Gopalakrishnan, V. Tallapragada, M. Page, and T. Quirino

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

14A.5

Design of Multiple Moving Nests in Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Modeling System

Xuejin Zhang, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. Gopalakrishnan and S. Trahan

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

14A.6

Extending Operational HWRF Initialization to Triple-nest HWRF System

Qingfu Liu, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD; and X. Zhang, S. Trahan, and V. Tallapragada

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

14A.7

Benchmarking progress towards the HFIP goals – results from the 2011 HFIP Demo

Christopher L. Williams, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, T. L. Fowler, E. Gilleland, P. A. Kucera, L. Nance, K. Newman, and C. Zhou

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

14A.8

Objective evaluation of 2011 HFIP Stream 1.5 candidates

Louisa Nance, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and B. G. Brown, T. L. Fowler, E. Gilleland, P. A. Kucera, K. Newman, C. L. Williams, and C. Zhou

Recorded Presentation

Session 14C

Convection IV

Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Todd P. Lane, The University of Melbourne

8:00 AM

14C.1

**On the Importance of the Nontraditional Coriolis Terms in Large-Scale Motions Associated with Cumulus Convective Forcing in the Tropics: Forced Response Problem**

Hayashi Michiya, Kyushu University, Fukuoka-shi, Fukuoka, Japan; and I. Hisanori

Recorded Presentation Recorded Presentation Manuscript (582.8 kB)

8:15 AM

14C.2

Characteristics of Extreme Summer Convection in the Tropical Americas

Manuel D. Zuluaga, University of Washington, Seattle, WA; and R. A. Houze Jr.

Handout (6.2 MB)

8:30 AM

14C.3

Relationships between TRMM precipitation characteristics and large-scale vertical motions in four reanalysis datasets over the tropical Pacific

Chie Yokoyama, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and E. Zipser and C. Liu

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

14C.4

Ground-based observations of overshooting convection during the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE)

Muhammad E. Hassim, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia; and T. P. Lane and P. T. May

Recorded Presentation Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

14C.5

Seasonal evolution and interannual-intraseasonal variability of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) during the austral summer half year

Colene M. Haffke, University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; and G. Magnusdottir

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

14C.6

Satellite Observed Atmospheric Variability over the Life Cycle of Tropical Convective Systems

Hirohiko Masunaga, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan

Recorded Presentation

9:30 AM

14C.7

An Observational and Multi-Scale Modeling Framework (MMF) Depiction of the Transition from Light Rain to Deep Convection on Sub-Daily Timescales

Gregory Elsaesser, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and C. D. Kummerow

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

14C.8

Tropical Cloud Cluster Variability and Genesis Productivity

Christopher C. Hennon, Univ. of North Carolina at Asheville, Asheville, NC; and P. P. Papin, C. M. Zarzar, and C. N. Helms

Recorded Presentation

Session 14D

Tropical Large Scale Circulation and Intraseasonal Variability III

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Eric Maloney, Colorado State Univ.

8:00 AM

14D.1

Ocean-atmosphere interaction key aspect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Wan-Ling Tseng, Research Center for Environmental Changes, Taipei, Taiwan; and B. J. Tsuang, N. Keenlyside, H. H. Hsu, and C. Y. Tu

8:15 AM

14D.2

An event-by-event assessment of tropical intraseasonal perturbations for general circulation models

Jean Philippe Duvel, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), Paris, France; and H. Bellenger, G. Bellon, and M. Remaud

Recorded Presentation Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

14D.3

**Modulation of the Extratropical Circulation by Combined Activity of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Equatorial Rossby Waves**

Lawrence C. Gloeckler III, SUNY Albany, Albany, NY; and P. E. Roundy

Recorded Presentation Recorded Presentation Manuscript (5.4 MB)

8:45 AM

14D.4

**Interactions between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and equatorial Rossby waves through high-frequency transient eddies**

Naoko Sakaeda, NOAA, Boulder, CO; and P. E. Roundy

Recorded Presentation Recorded Presentation Manuscript (216.9 kB)

9:00 AM

14D.5

On the Relative Roles of Circumnavigating Waves and Extratropics on the MJO

Pallav Ray, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL; and T. Li

9:15 AM

14D.6

**Local Versus Remote Controls of East Pacific Intraseasonal Variability**

Adam V. Rydbeck, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. Maloney

Recorded Presentation Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.5 MB)

9:30 AM

14D.7

The Role of South American Convective Cycles on Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations

Fernando Hirata, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster

Recorded Presentation Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

14D.8

Assessment of the MJO Activity in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS)

Wei-Wei Li, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL; and Z. Wang

Recorded Presentation Recorded Presentation

Session 14B

Tropical Cyclone Targeting and Data Assimilation I

Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Sharanya J. Majumdar, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS

8:00 AM

14B.1

Impact of Integrated Satellite Observations on Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones: A Case Study

Hui Liu, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. S. Velden, J. Li, S. J. Majumdar, and J. Anderson

Recorded Presentation

8:15 AM

14B.2

Influence of Assimilating Satellite-derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) on Analyses and Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Track and Structure

Ting-Chi Wu, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and H. Liu, S. J. Majumdar, C. S. Velden, and J. Anderson

Recorded Presentation

8:30 AM

14B.3

Hourly Assimilation of Enhanced AMVs for Tropical Cyclone Initialization Using a Novel Ensemble Bogus Method

William E. Lewis, Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI; and C. S. Velden, S. J. Majumdar, and E. D. Rappin

Recorded Presentation

8:45 AM

14B.4

The Impact of Assimilating Aircraft Observations in the Tropical Cyclone Core with HEDAS, the HWRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System

Sim D. Aberson, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, T. Vukicevic, K. J. Sellwood, J. F. Gamache, and S. Gopalakrishnan

Recorded Presentation

9:00 AM

14B.5

Incremental typhoon-position-oriented sensitivity analysis for targeted observation

Kosuke Ito, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu

Recorded Presentation

9:15 AM

14B.6

Improving predictability of landfalling hurricanes through assimilation of surface mesonet observations using ensemble kalman filter methods

Hailing Zhang, Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT; and Z. Pu

9:30 AM

14B.7

Targeting Coordinated Unmanned Aircraft Observations in Hurricanes

Doug Koch, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and L. DeVries, A. Maki, D. Paley, and S. J. Majumdar

Recorded Presentation

9:45 AM

14B.8

Impact of Convection-Permitting Resolution and EnKF Data Assimilation on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Forecasts

Jordan Schleif, CAPS/Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and M. Xue, F. Kong, and J. S. Whitaker

Recorded Presentation

10:00 AM

14B.9

Dynamic Initialization of Hurricanes in the Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Model (OLAM)

Robert L. Walko, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and S. J. Majumdar, C. A. Mattocks, R. Avissar, and T. Miyoshi

Recorded Presentation

Session

A.M. Coffee Break

Location: Sawgrass Marriott

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session 15A

IFEX & HFIP III: Model Evaluation and Diagnostics

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: James D. Doyle, NRL

10:30 AM

15A.1

Can we hope to improve prediction of tropical cyclone intensity?

Frank D. Marks Jr., NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and T. Vukicevic

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

15A.2

Evaluation methods for tropical cyclone forecasts: Moving beyond basic metrics

Barbara G. Brown, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and E. Gilleland, L. Bernardet, and E. Ebert

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

15A.3

Diagnostics and verification of the tropical cyclone environment in regional models

Brian D. McNoldy, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and K. D. Musgrave and M. DeMaria

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

15A.4

Verification of COAMPS-TC predictions of the synoptic-scale flow in the tropics and subtropics

Jonathan R. Moskaitis, Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA; and Y. Jin and J. D. Doyle

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

15A.6

Evaluating Cloud Microphysical Parameterizations in COAMPS-TC for Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure Prediction

Yi Jin, NRL, Monterey, CA; and G. Thompson, S. Wang, J. Nachamkin, J. Doyle, R. Hodur, T. R. Holt, J. R. Moskaitis, and Q. Zhao

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

15A.7

Hurricane WRF (HWRF) rapid intensification: verification and diagnostics

Shaowu Bao, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and L. Bernardet and M. K. Biswas

Recorded Presentation

12:00 PM

15A.8

HWRF sensitivity to variations in physical parameterizations

Mrinal K. Biswas, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and L. Bernardet

Recorded Presentation

Session 15C

Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change IV

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Mark DeMaria, NOAA/NESDIS

10:30 AM

15C.1

Another Look at the Use of Maximum Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones

Andrea B. Schumacher, CIRA/Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and M. DeMaria and J. Knaff

Recorded Presentation Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

15C.2

Climatology and Large-Scale Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification over the Western North Pacific

Yunjie Rao, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Wang

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

15C.3

Relationship of Environmental Relative Humidity with Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification Rate

Hui Su, JPL, Pasadena, CA; and L. Wu, J. T. Shen, R. G. Fovell, B. H. Kahn, S. Hristova-Veleva, B. Lambrigtsen, and E. Fetzer

Recorded Presentation

11:15 AM

15C.4

Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Tropical Cyclones: Past, Present, and Future

Owen H. Shieh, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and B. Wang, M. Fiorino, and M. E. Kucas

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

15C.5

**Interaction between a midlatitude upper-level trough and tropical cyclone Dora (2007) over the southwest Indian Ocean**

Marie-Dominique Emmanuelle Leroux, LACy, Sainte Clotilde Cedex, Reunion

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.3 MB)

11:45 AM

15C.6

Analysis of Interaction of Three Typhoons through 3-D Vorticity Tubes

Zhiying Ding, Pacific Typhoon Research Center, KLME, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (1.8 MB)

12:00 PM

15C.7

Cyclone Fences around Humberto (2001)

Gary M. Barnes, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI; and K. P. Dolling

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (329.2 kB)

12:15 PM

15C.8

An Observational Study of Tropical Cyclone Spin-Up in Supertyphoon Jangmi (2008) and Hurricane Georges (1998)

Neil Thomas Sanger, Air Force Weather, Barksdale Air Force Base, LA; and M. T. Montgomery, R. K. Smith, and M. M. Bell

Recorded Presentation

Session 15B

Tropical Large Scale Circulation and Intraseasonal Variability IV

Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: George N. Kiladis, ESRL

10:30 AM

15B.1

Oscillations in Ocean and Land Heating

Peter Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and V. Toma, H. M. Kim, and C. D. Hoyos

Recorded Presentation

10:45 AM

15B.2

Inertial Instability Criterion over the Indian Ocean

Violeta Toma, Climate Forecast Applications Network, Reno, NV; and P. Webster

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

15B.3

The Response of the effective static stability in the subtropics to MJO-induced tropical diabatic heating

Hyo Seok Park, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and S. Bordoni

11:15 AM

15B.4

Interactions Between Local Atmospheric Vertical Structures and the Madden-Julian Oscillation

James J. Benedict, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO; and A. H. Sobel, E. Maloney, D. Kim, and D. M. Frierson

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

15B.5

Initiation and Multi-scale Interaction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Tim Li, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI; and P. C. Hsu and C. B. Zhao

Recorded Presentation

11:45 AM

15B.6

Initiation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Multiscale Structure Viewpoint

Kazuyoshi Kikuchi, Department of Meteorology and IPRC, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI

12:00 PM

15B.7

MJO initiation (or is it intensification?)

Katherine H. Straub, Susquehanna University, Selinsgrove, PA

Recorded Presentation

12:15 PM

15B.8

An Indo-Pacific alternation of the boreal winter MJO

Hugo Bellenger, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentation et Approches Numériques, Paris, France; and J. P. Duvel

Recorded Presentation

Session 15D

Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Prediction

Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC

10:30 AM

15D.1

**An Intraseasonal Model for the Prediction of Atlantic and East Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis**

Stephanie A. Slade, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO; and E. Maloney

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (530.3 kB)

10:45 AM

15D.2

Influences of Large-Scale Climate on Whether Hurricanes Make Landfall in the United States

Chunzai Wang, NOAA/AOML, Miami, FL; and H. Liu, S. K. Lee, and R. Atlas

Recorded Presentation

11:00 AM

15D.3

**Tropical cyclone landfall on the East Asian coast from a statistical track model with ENSO-dependence**

Emmi Yonekura, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and T. M. Hall

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (57.2 kB)

11:15 AM

15D.4

Multilevel modeling for seasonal hurricane prediction

Robert E. Hodges, Guy Carpenter

Recorded Presentation

11:30 AM

15D.5

A simplified early August Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane prediction scheme

Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (114.5 kB)

11:45 AM

15D.6

Atlantic Hurricane Forecast and Climatological Impacts: A Statistical Analysis

Siamak Daneshvaran, Aon Benfield, Chicago, IL; and M. Haji

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (730.8 kB)

12:00 PM

15D.7

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones in the ECMWF 32-day Ensemble Prediction System

Hsiao-Chung Tsai, Tamkang University Taiwan, New Taipei City,, Taiwan; and R. L. Elsberry and M. S. Jordan

Manuscript (452.4 kB)

12:15 PM

15D.8

Seasonal Prediction of Tropical Cyclone by GFDL's 25-km High-Resolution Global Model

Jan-Huey Chen, NOAA GFDL / Princeton University, Princeton, NJ; and S. J. Lin

Recorded Presentation

12:30 PM

6B.6

Extended-range seasonal forecasts for the North Atlantic and North Pacific TCs with a hybrid dynamical-statistical model

Hye-Mi Kim, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. Webster and E. Christ

Lunch Break

Location: Sawgrass Marriott

Plenary Session

Max Eaton Award Announcement

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Brian Tang, NCAR

Session 16D

Ocean Observations & Air-Sea Interaction

Location: Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Mark Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD

2:00 PM

16D.1

Experimental Deployment of AXBTs during Operational Hurricane Reconnaissance Flights

Elizabeth R. Sanabia, U.S. Naval Academy, Annapolis, MD; and P. G. Black, J. L. Kerling, S. Chen, and J. Cummings

2:15 PM

16D.2

An Upper Ocean Thermal Field Metrics Dataset

James E. Peak, NRL, Monterey, CA; and C. R. Sampson, J. Cummings, J. A. Knaff, M. DeMaria, and W. H. Schubert

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

16D.3

Hurricane Intensity Change and Inner-Core SST: Warmer is Not Always Better

Joseph J. Cione, NOAA/HRD, Miami, FL

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

16D.5

Spatial variation of surface drag coefficient in tropical cyclones

Mark Powell, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Tallahassee, FL; and L. Holthuijsen and J. Pietrzak

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

16D.6

Rain modification of scatterometer radar cross section due to changes in surface roughness

Mark A. Bourassa, Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL; and D. E. Weissman

Recorded Presentation

Session 16A

Tropical Waves II

Location: Masters E (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Paul E. Roundy, SUNY

2:00 PM

16A.1

On the role of transitioning weather states in the initiation of African easterly waves

Ademe Mekonnen, North Carolina A & T State University, Greensboro, NC; and W. B. Rossow

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

16A.2

African Easterly Wave variability in present and future climate simulations

R. J. Cornforth, NCAS Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; and K. I. Hodges and B. J. Hoskins

2:30 PM

16A.3

Equatorial Waves in High-Resolution Satellite Observations and Reanalysis Products

M. Joan Alexander, NorthWest Research Associates, CoRA office, Boulder, CO; and D. A. Ortland and J. E. Kim

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

16A.4

Characterizing the higher-frequency variability within the MJO convective envelope

Stephanie Leroux, CNRM, Toulouse, France; and J. Dias, G. Kiladis, and S. N. Tulich

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

16A.5

Leading modes of synoptic scale convective activity over the west Pacific warm pool

George Kiladis, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

16A.6

An object-approach to detect convectively coupled equatorial waves

Juliana Dias, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO; and S. N. Tulich and G. Kiladis

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

16A.7

Cloud-resolving simulations of the ITCZ and tropical waves

Stefan N. Tulich, CIRES/Univ. of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO; and D. S. Nolan

Recorded Presentation

Session 16B

Tropical Cyclone Targeting and Data Assimilation II

Location: Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Fuqing Zhang, Pennsylvania State University

2:00 PM

16B.1

A Dynamical Initialization Scheme for Real-time Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones Using the WRF Model

Dong-Hyun Cha, International Pacific Research Center and Department of Meteorology, Honolulu, HI; and Y. Wang

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

16B.2

Recent Advances in Vortex-Scale Data Assimilation using NOAA/AOML/HRD's HWRF Ensemble Data Assimilation System (HEDAS)

Altug Aksoy, University of Miami/CIMAS and NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and S. Lorsolo, S. D. Aberson, T. Vukicevic, and K. Sellwood

Recorded Presentation

2:30 PM

16B.3

Short-term dynamic forecast bias and its impact on vortex scale data assimilation

Tomislava Vukicevic, NOAA/AOML/HRD, Miami, FL; and A. Aksoy, S. Aberson, K. Sellwood, and F. D. Marks Jr.

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

16B.4

Improving global and regional high resolution hurricane forecasts using the hybrid variational-ensemble data assimilation

Xuguang Wang, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; and T. Lei, J. S. Whitaker, Y. Li, and M. Xue

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

16B.5

Testing and Evaluation of the GSI-Hybrid data assimilation for the Hurricane Forecasts

Chunhua Zhou, NCAR, Boulder, CO; and H. Shao and X. Y. Huang

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

16B.7

Data Assimilation Studies on Typhoon Sinlaku (2008) Using the WRF-LETKF System

Takemasa Miyoshi, University of Maryland, College Park, MD; and M. Kunii

Recorded Presentation

3:30 PM

16B.8

Assessment of the ASCAT wind error characteristics by global dropwindsonde observations and examination its impact on tropical cyclone simulations

Kun-Hsuan Chou, Chinese Culture University, Taipei, Taiwan; and C. C. Wu and S. Z. Lin

Session 16C

Tropical Large Scale Circulation and Intraseasonal Variability V

Location: Champions FG (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Chair: Peter. J. Webster, Georgia Institute of Technology

2:00 PM

16C.1

Potential Vorticity during MJO Initiation

Chidong Zhang, Univ. of Miami/RSMAS, Miami, FL; and J. Ling

Recorded Presentation

2:15 PM

16C.2

Observational Analysis of the Multiscale Dynamics in the Madden-Julian Oscillation

Wen-Wen Tung, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN; and J. Gao

2:30 PM

16C.3

The Analysis of DYNAMO Precipitation in TRMM and in Coupled COAMPS Using the EOF Based “Mesoscale MJO Index”

Maria K. Flatau, NRL, Monterey, CA; and S. Chen, T. Jensen, T. Shinoda, and J. Cummings

Recorded Presentation

2:45 PM

16C.4

Aerosol, Cumulus Congestus, and Madden-Julian Oscillation

Xiaowen Li, GESTAR/Morgan State University and NASA/GSFC, Greenbelt, MD; and W. K. Tao

Recorded Presentation

3:00 PM

16C.5

Is the tropical atmosphere in quasi-equilibrium?

Taotao Qian, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH; and J. Lin and T. Shinoda

Recorded Presentation

3:15 PM

16C.6

Evaluation of Tropical Convection and Radiation for 20th Century IPCC AR 4th and 5th Simulations using Multi-sensors

Jui-Lin F. Li, JPL/California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA; and D. E. Waliser, G. L. Stephens, W. T. Chen, B. Guan, and T. L. Kubar

3:30 PM

16C.7

Sensitivity of a Coupled Atmospheric-Hydrologic Probabilistic Forecast Scheme of South Asia Valleys

Kristofer Shrestha, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA; and P. J. Webster and V. Toma

Recorded Presentation

3:45 PM

16C.8

Influence Of Opencaste Mining And Irrigation Canal On The Change Of Climate Of West Central Arid Region Of India

P. Kumar, MIT, Maharashtra, India

Session

Afternoon Coffee Break

Location: Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)

Host: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

Session Browse by Day

Sunday, 15 April 2012

4:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 15 April 2012

Monday, 16 April 2012

7:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 16 April 2012

8:00 AM-10:15 AM: Monday, 16 April 2012

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Monday, 16 April 2012

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012

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1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012

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8:00 PM-9:30 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012

Tuesday, 17 April 2012

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Tuesday, 17 April 2012

8:00 AM-10:15 AM: Tuesday, 17 April 2012

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1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2012

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2012

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2012

8:00 PM-9:30 PM: Tuesday, 17 April 2012

Wednesday, 18 April 2012

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012

8:00 AM-10:15 AM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012

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1:30 PM-3:30 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012

1:30 PM-3:45 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012

3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012

4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012

7:00 PM-9:00 PM: Wednesday, 18 April 2012

Thursday, 19 April 2012

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Thursday, 19 April 2012

8:00 AM-10:15 AM: Thursday, 19 April 2012

10:00 AM-10:30 AM: Thursday, 19 April 2012

10:30 AM-12:15 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2012

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4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2012

7:30 PM-9:30 PM: Thursday, 19 April 2012

Friday, 20 April 2012

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Friday, 20 April 2012

8:00 AM-10:15 AM: Friday, 20 April 2012

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10:30 AM-12:45 PM: Friday, 20 April 2012

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3:30 PM-4:00 PM: Friday, 20 April 2012

Sunday, 15 April 2012

4:00 PM-7:00 PM: Sunday, 15 April 2012

Monday, 16 April 2012

7:00 AM-5:30 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012

8:00 AM-10:00 AM: Monday, 16 April 2012

8:00 AM-10:15 AM: Monday, 16 April 2012

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4:00 PM-6:00 PM: Monday, 16 April 2012