Evaluation of Operational Storm Surge Predictions from the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Model for Hurricane Ike (2008)

Developed by the National Weather Service's Meteorological Development Laboratory, the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model is used by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to operationally predict the storm surge from tropical cyclones prior to landfall in the United States. Operational SLOSH runs generally begin with the first issuance of a hurricane watch along the U.S. coastline and use information on the tropical cyclone's size, forward speed, track, and pressure field to create a storm surge forecast for each grid box within the curvilinear, polar coordinate grid specific to the primary basin(s) where storm surge is expected. Operational tropical cyclone storm surge probability products derived from the SLOSH model are also created when U.S. hurricane watches or warnings are in effect. The probabilistic products are based on NHC official track and intensity forecasts, historical NHC track and intensity forecast errors, and variability in the radius of maximum winds. This study compares operational deterministic SLOSH runs and probabilistic exceedance height products for Hurricane Ike (2008) to surveyed maximum surge information that includes high water marks (HWMs) and observations from United States Geological Survey (USGS) pressure sensors.