Communicating objective guidance for tropical cyclone forecasting – Evolving operational practices and techniques

There has been significant growth in the development of objective guidance used in tropical cyclone (TC) prediction such as numerical weather prediction models and statistical products. The availability of these objective aids has expanded with numerous websites displaying model storm tracks and maps identifying yet-to-form TCs. Along with this expansion is an ever increasing interest in TCs in the media and a need/appetite for information at various timescales. Social media has also played a roll as meteorologists and weather enthusiasts keep the world updated with details on at least a daily basis. The media, general public, and “end users” of tropical cyclone forecasts issued by both the public- and private-sector are becoming more savvy with technology and information resources.

This presentation will cover highlights of how operational prediction of TCs has changed in recent years and will summarize practices at the Canadian Hurricane Centre in response to the changes. What are effective ways to present pre-season and pre-storm forecasts to the public? How can forecasters best use the tools available to describe in-season TC formation likelihood? How do forecasters transition their communication from the pre-storm (model-predicted formation) period to the storm's active period? These topics will be discussed by highlighting examples from the 2010 and 2011 hurricane seasons in addition to ensemble and statistical guidance tailored for end-user consumption.