A Reanalysis of the 1944-1953 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons - The First Decade of Aircraft Reconnaissance

The historical archive of all tropical storms and hurricanes in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico from 1851-present is known as HURDAT. Previous work has demonstrated that a reanalysis of HURDAT is necessary because it contains many random errors and systematic biases. The Atlantic Hurricane Reanalysis Project is an ongoing effort to correct the errors in HURDAT and to provide as accurate of a database as is possible with utilization of all available data. HURDAT has been preliminarily reanalyzed for the period 1944-1953, the first decade of the aircraft reconnaissance era. The track and intensity of each existing tropical cyclone has been reassessed, and previously unrecognized tropical cyclones have been discovered, analyzed, and recommended to the HURDAT Best Track Change Committee for inclusion into HURDAT (existing tropical cyclones may be removed from the database as well if analyses indicate evidence that no tropical storm existed). Changes to the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, accumulated cyclone energy, and U.S. landfalling hurricanes are recommended for most years of the decade.

A brief overview of the reanalysis methodology will be provided, especially with regards to early aircraft reconnaissance observations. Next, the preliminary results of the reanalysis of the 1944-1953 hurricane seasons will be shown. Finally, estimates of uncertainty in the reanalyzed database will be discussed.