Tropical Cyclone Prediction Through Multi-model Ensemble Forecast and Reforecast Bias-correction

NOAA established the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) to develop a 10-year strategy to improve hurricane forecasts. The efforts will be achieved by the multi-model ensemble based numerical prediction system, and the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) reforecast bias-correction for hurricane prediction.

For the hurricane track forecast, we use five global ensemble forecast systems, which are being run in National Center of Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC), Canadian Meteorology Center (CMC), European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and UK's National Weather Service (UK Met Office). The global tropical cyclone track and probabilistic forecast are done by the combination of the TC-ensemble forecasts in these five centers. The results show encouraging improvements for hurricane /typhoon track prediction through this multiple global-model ensemble forecast system. This system is run in real time in 2011 for our users at National Hurricane Center (NHC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC).

To better apply the 30-year GEFS T254 tropical cyclone reforecast products which are conducted by Tom Hamill in Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), we develop a new method for hurricane track bias-correction forecast for NCEP GEFS T254 forecast system which will be implemented in the first quarter of 2012. It is expected to improve GEFS hurricane forecast for 2012 hurricane season.