Diagnosing the POM-TC ocean model component of NOAA's HWRF and GFDL coupled hurricane forecast models

NOAA's HWRF and GFDL hurricane forecast models are coupled to a version of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) suitable for simulating the SST response to tropical cyclone (TC) forcing. Select TCs from the 2010 and 2011 Atlantic hurricane seasons provide an opportunity to diagnose the POM-TC response to TC forcing and the subsequent TC intensity change under a variety of atmospheric and oceanic conditions. These storms include Earl (2010), whose track and intensity were generally well-represented by HWRF and GFDL, over-predicted Maria (2011), slow-moving Nate (2011) in the Gulf of Mexico and Rina (2011) in the Caribbean, large Irene (2011) off the Atlantic coast of the U.S., and weakening Katia (2011) as it moved into a region of decreasing upper-ocean mixed layer thickness. Model sensitivity experiments and comparison to observations, such as TRMM/TMI SST, will illuminate the influence of TC size, speed, and strength as well as the pre-TC ocean environment on the ocean response and intensity change in the TC-ocean coupled system.