Tropical Cyclones Tracks near the coast of Southern Mexico

It has been observed that westward-moving Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) often turn southward near the coast of southern Mexico before making landfall. Although it has been speculated that the Sierra Madre Mountains play a role in this track behavior, there remains little quantitative information on this subject. Global and hurricane regional models often miss this southward turn, and the National Hurricane Center official forecasts have shown less skill in this region than the rest of the Atlantic basin and a northward track bias. This study attempts to identify the cause of this track shift of TCs by collecting steering patterns for several cases and by utilizing idealized high resolution numerical models. It is hoped that with further understanding of TC behavior near Mexico, improvements of hurricane track forecasts in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico could be made.