Tuesday, 17 April 2012
Heritage Ballroom (Sawgrass Marriott)
A preliminary reanalysis of the Atlantic basin tropical storm and hurricane database ("best track") for the period of 1931 to 1943 has been completed. These are the last years for Atlantic tropical cyclones before routine aircraft reconnaissance became available. This reassessment of the main archive for tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico was necessary to correct systematic biases and random errors in the data as well as to search for previously unrecognized systems. The 1931-1943 dataset now includes several new tropical cyclones, excludes some systems previously considered a tropical storm, makes generally large alterations in the intensity estimates of most tropical cyclones (both toward stronger and weaker intensities), and typically adjusts existing tracks with minor corrections. Average errors in intensity and track values are estimated for both open ocean conditions as well as for landfalling systems. Finally, highlights are given for changes to the more significant hurricanes to impact the United States, Central America and the Caribbean for these last few years before aircraft reconnaissance became available.
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