How ‘Good' are the Best Tracks? - Estimating Uncertainty in the Atlantic Hurricane Database

“Best tracks” are the National Hurricane Center (NHC) post-storm analyses of intensity, central pressure, position, and wind radii for Atlantic basin tropical and subtropical cyclones. This paper provides estimates of the Atlantic basin best track uncertainty for intensity, central pressure, position, and size for today's tropical cyclones. This is accomplished by taking a survey of the Hurricane Specialists that maintain and update the Atlantic hurricane database. A comparison is then made against a very similar survey that was conducted about a decade ago to assess changes in the uncertainties. Finally, implications of the uncertainty estimates are put into context with some of the current analysis/forecast products that NHC issues as well as goals for improved predictability from the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program.