Benchmarking progress towards the HFIP goals – results from the 2011 HFIP Demo

During the 2011 hurricane season, the NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP) conducted an experiment, referred to as the Demonstration System (2011 HFIP Demo), to facilitate testing of state-of-the-art model technology. Real-time tropical cyclone forecasts were generated using experimental numerical weather prediction systems. Forecasts from eight modeling groups participating in the 2011 HFIP Demo were made available in real-time to NHC forecasters. The Stream 1.5 (covers experimental models and/or techniques that NHC, based on prior assessments, wants to access in real-time during a particular hurricane season, but which cannot be made available in the conventional “production” mode) models included an experimental global model, three configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting model and two other regional tropical cyclone models, a regional ensemble system, and an experimental statistical-dynamical model. Furthermore, a new set of modified or new model configurations were run as part of HFIP's Stream 2, which represents efforts taking multiple years to enhance operations. In addition to using a variety of experimental systems, modeling groups applied a variety of initialization and ensemble generation approaches geared toward improving the skill of the tropical cyclone forecasts. Results from an objective evaluation of these real-time forecasts will be presented. For the Stream 1.5 models, the presentation will also include a comparison of the model results from the 2011 HFIP Demo and the prior retrospective testing.