The structure of immature TCs likely has a profound impact on subsequent intensity and structure change. Past theoretical and observational research suggest that a strong intensification response occurs in the TC-scale vortex when diabatic heating occurs in the high inertial stability region of the TC. In immature TCs, however, the region of high inertial stability develops concurrently during intensification. It is hypothesized that the structure of the wind field in immature TCs functions somewhat like a manifold that controls and modifies the expression of the TC's convective elements back onto the vortex scale. In this view, the evolving shape of the TC's wind field is analogous to DNA, controlling the potential for rapid intensification (RI).
This work will compare intensification rates for the three groups of storms (classified according to their subsequent RMW-eye radius ratio when the aircraft eye appears) as well as a fourth class of storms that have remarkably small RMWs. Further examination will seek to determine whether the TCs that undergo RI have different initial RMW characteristics than those that do not and whether eye formation has any relation to either the beginning or the end of the rapid intensification period.
Supplementary URL: http://www.ral.ucar.edu/staff/jvigh/vdm/des/
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