The Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) - Planned research and development avenues for continued algorithm improvement

The Advanded Dvorak Technique (ADT) is a mature but still evolving algorithm used worldwide to estimate the intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) using geostationary, longwave infrared (IR) imagery. This algorithm is based upon the long-standing and implicitly subjective Dvorak Techique (DT), but is completely objective and automated, and has advanced beyond the scope of the DT through the use of new statistical analysis techniques and new satellite information.

Continued development of the ADT during the upcoming year is planned through exploration and possible implementation of various new techniques to increase the accuracy of the ADT in areas where the algorithm (and DT) still struggles. The primary avenue targets the "pre-depression" stage of TC development prior to the release of the first official bulletin/warning by a TC Forecast Center (where the ADT typically begins analysis of TC intensity for a given storm). This work would focus on two promising schemes developed and demonstrated by outside research institutions to help objectively identify and track these disturbances and serve as as "front end" to the ADT. Additional research will also need to be conducted to develop an objective intensity estimation technique to augment these routines to fit into the scope of the ADT. Secondary research avenues will target existing ADT analysis techniques to improve the accuracy of the algorithm in certain situations, such as the "early depression" stage where the ADT/DT scene type "Curved Band" is utilized for determining TC intensity.