Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Florida's Future Hurricane Event Risk

Hurricanes are powerful storms that form every year in the Atlantic Ocean basin during the months of June through November. These storms are a threat to states along the eastern coast of the United States as well as along the Gulf of Mexico. An increase in frequency and intensity of hurricanes is a possible and dangerous consequence of future climate change. Florida is one region that is extremely vulnerable to hurricanes since it is a peninsula that can be impacted from both the west coast and east coast. Hurricane return periods for all Florida coastal counties were calculated for the years 1900-2010. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to map and display the spatial distribution of the frequency of hurricane landfalls. Hurricane landfalls were quantified by using a dynamic wind model which allowed for the spatial extent of each storm to be examined. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios were compared to the spatial distribution of hurricane landfalls for Florida. A statistical analysis identified the relationships between the set of scenarios and observed hurricane landfall risk for Florida. Future climate change is expected to result in a decrease in hurricane activity but in a possible, slight increase in hurricane intensity. Based on the findings from the statistical analysis, the southwestern and southeastern coasts of Florida have the highest risk of future hurricane landfalls.