Will Increases in CO2 Amounts During This Century Lead to Significant Changes in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity?

We have no plausible physical reasons for believing that global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency or intensity will necessarily change to any significant degree if global SSTs were to rise by a small amount due to projected increases of CO₂ which acts to block IR energy to space.

Rising levels of CO₂ will manifest itself through a small enhancement of the global hydrologic cycle (by a few percent) but should bring about very little increase of global temperature by the time CO₂ amounts double towards the end of the 21^st century.  The General Circulation Models (GCMs) on which predictions of 2-5^oC (4-9^oF) global warming for a doubling of CO₂ occurs are based on flawed physics and their results should not be accepted.

Skillful initial-value GCM forecasts of future tropical cyclone climate will likely never be possible.  This is due to the overly complex nature of the atmosphere-ocean-land system and the inability of numerical models to realistically represent this full range of complexity whether from an initial value or a boundary-value perspective.