14A.1 Prediction of tropical cyclone intensity and track using COAMPS-TC

Thursday, 19 April 2012: 1:30 PM
Champions DE (Sawgrass Marriott)
James D. Doyle, NRL, Monterey, CA; and R. M. Hodur, S. Chen, J. Cummings, E. Hendricks, T. Holt, H. Jin, Y. Jin, C. S. Liou, J. R. Moskaitis, M. S. Peng, P. A. Reinecke, K. Sashegyi, J. Schmidt, and S. Wang

A new version of the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC) has been developed specifically for forecasting tropical cyclone track, structure and intensity. The COAMPS-TC has been tested in real time in both coupled and uncoupled modes over the past several tropical cyclone seasons in the Pacific and Atlantic basins at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. The real-time testing has been motivated by several recent multi-agency programs and efforts: i) the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), which is focused on the W. Atlantic and E. Pacific basins, ii) the 2008 ONR THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) and the ONR Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 (TCS08) and 2010 Interaction of Typhoon and Ocean Project (ITOP), which took place in the W. Pacific, and iii) pre-operational testing of COAMPS-TC in W. Pacific basin. An evaluation of a large sample of real time forecasts for 2010-2011 in the Atlantic basin reveals that the COAMPS-TC intensity predictions are more accurate than any other real time dynamical forecast models, particularly beyond the 36 h time. As an example, real-time forecasts for Hurricane Irene (2011) illustrate the capability of COAMPS-TC to capture both the intensity (see Figure) and the fine-scale features in close agreement with observations. Evaluation of real-time COAMPS-TC forecasts will be presented using the TCS08, ITOP, and HFIP datasets with a focus on challenges and successes related to tropical cyclone intensity prediction. Additionally, highlights from a ten member 5 km horizontal resolution COAMPS-TC ensemble that was run over the W. Atlantic and W. Pacific basins during 2011 will be presented. The results of this research highlight the promise of high-resolution deterministic and ensemble-based approaches for tropical cyclone prediction using COAMPS-TC.

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