Can we hope to improve prediction of tropical cyclone intensity?
The first three years of HFIP have led to improvements in global and regional TC models and development of data assimilation technique to improve initial analyses of the TC inner core observations from aircraft and Doppler radars. These developments show promise for achieving HFIP's goal to improve TC track and intensity forecast guidance by 20% in 5 years. However, the intensity forecast guidance improvement is manifest at forecast times >36 h, and suggest that while the analyses are improved through data assimilation, there is a bias in the short-term (<36 h) model spin-up. One of the key questions HFIP is trying to address is what causes this short-term model spin-up bias. However, a more important question that needs to be addressed is whether models will ever be able to provide guidance on a metric as volatile as the peak wind anywhere in the storm. Using a peak of a distribution as a metric is fraught with many pitfalls as it is not a representative measure of the distribution of the wind field. In this talk other metrics more representative of the wind field distribution will be presented and discussed as potential means to address the model intensity verification problem.