Comparative tropical cyclone core structure climatology from reconnaissance and satellite observations

In general, increased observations both inside and around tropical cyclones (TCs) helps to better define initial conditions and reduce forecast error (Burpee et al. 1996). In spite of the fact that data on the current state of the TC itself reduces future uncertainty, statistical TC intensity prediction models that principally rely upon environmental conditions (e.g. DeMaria et al. 2005) are among the top performing intensity forecasting methods. However, diagnosis of the TC core and structure is not well captured nor utilized through these methods.

Toward the development of more accurate intensity predictions, two climatologies of TC inner-core structure are compiled, analyzed, and inter-compared. Building and expanding upon the research of Piech (2007) and Murray (2009), satellite measurements from the HURSAT database (Knapp 2008) are used to diagnose TC structure and intensity. An analogue to reconnaissance observations gathered from 1991-2011 is produced for all worldwide TCs from 1987-2009 using ARCHER software (Wimmers and Velden 2010) to more accurately determine the satellite-imaged TC center. Eye size and symmetry information provided by reconnaissance is replicated through HURSAT/ARCHER analysis. Satellite measurements of TCs are also used to determine proxy temperature and moisture assessments of the TC eye and core regions and are related to in-situ reconnaissance data. In addition, satellite-based metrics of inner-core structure are explored to characterize the TC beyond current reconnaissance capabilities (such as spatial, temporal, and measurement limitations). For example, two-dimentional patterns of raw brightness temperatures and derived physical parameters such as liquid water path are tested for utility in distinguishing regimes of current and future TC intensity.