The predictability of the MJO is basically determined by three factors: i) the model fidelity in the representation of the MJO; ii) the settings of sea surface temperature; and iii) the accuracy of initial conditions. Due to significantly underestimated MJO intensity in old NCEP reanalysis I and II, the MJO predictability initialized with these two datasets is only about a week. When the MJO signal in these two reanalyses was recovered to be comparable with the observations, the MJO predictability in UH model, measured with Wheeler-Hendon index, reaches two weeks.
Initialized with much improved NCEP analysis, we carry out experimental MJO forecasting with UH coupled model weekly during DYNAMO field campaign period (Oct 2011-Mar 2012). We validate model forecasts of MJO initiation and propagation with latest CFSR and inter-compare with the results from the coupled CFSv2 and atmosphere-only GFS operational forecasts. Since atmospheric initial conditions for all three models are virtually the same, so the differences in the performance will be largely due to model differences (air-sea coupling and other physics). The successes and weaknesses of these models in forecasting MJO initiation and propagation will be reported.
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