Simulation and Validation of Sea Surface Temperature at the Main Development Region for Tropical Cyclones in Eastern North Pacific Ocean using the Second Generation of the Canadian Earth System Model

Compare with other global climate models (GCMs), the Canadian GCM has been attributed with the least error in simulating global and tropical sea surface temperature, an important variable in determining tropical cyclone maximum potential intensity. This paper addresses the ability of Canadian GCMs to simulate historical (1971-2000) sea surface temperature, focusing at the main development region for tropical cyclones in the eastern North Pacific basin. The feasibility of CGCM to model sea surface temperature in the region is statistically validated. The main development region, when subdivided longitudinally, shows a regional difference in the historical trend of tropical cyclone activity and has comparable correlation with sea surface temperature in both the observed and modeled datasets.