Session 3A Tropical Cyclone Operational Issues II

Monday, 16 April 2012: 1:30 PM-3:45 PM
Champions AB (Sawgrass Marriott)
Sponsor: 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology

**Indicates paper is being considered for the Max Eaton Student Prize**

Chair:
Michael J. Brennan, NHC, Miami, FL
Papers:
  1:30 PM
3A.1
Extended-range Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasts at the National Hurricane Center
Eric S. Blake, NOAA/NCEP/NHC, Miami, FL; and T. B. Kimberlain and J. P. Cangialosi

Recorded Presentation

  1:45 PM
3A.2
Subjective methods for assessing tropical cyclogenesis and intensity change at the Joint Typhoon Warning Center
James Darlow, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Pearl Harbor, Hawaii; and M. E. Kucas

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (334.7 kB)

  2:00 PM
3A.3
Evaluating Tropical Cyclogenesis Forecasts from Four Global Numerical Models
Daniel J. Halperin, University at Albany, Albany, NY; and H. E. Fuelberg, R. E. Hart, P. Sura, J. Cossuth, R. Truchelut, and R. J. Pasch

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (412.8 kB)

  2:15 PM
3A.4
A Comprehensive (Tropical) Cyclone Tracker - Application to Global Model TC Genesis and Intensity Prediction
Mike Fiorino, CIRES, Boulder, CO

Recorded Presentation

  2:30 PM
3A.5
An Investigation of Metrics Used to Determine the Center of Model Tropical Cyclones
David R. Ryglicki, FNMOC, Monterey, CA; and R. Hart

Recorded Presentation

  2:45 PM
3A.6
Computing and Understanding Forecast Errors in Tropical Cyclone Motion
Thomas J. Galarneau Jr., NCAR, Boulder, CO; and C. A. Davis

Recorded Presentation

  3:00 PM
3A.7
A New Approach to Diagnose Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction Error
Munehiko Yamaguchi, MRI, Tsukuba, Japan; and K. Aonashi

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (202.1 kB)

  3:15 PM
3A.8
Relationships between tropical cyclone track and intensity model initialization adjustments and early model forecast errors
Richard D. Knabb, The Weather Channel Companies, Atlanta, GA

  3:30 PM
3A.9
**Predicting the Performance of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasts Using Environmental Parameters**
Kieran Bhatia, University of Miami, Miami, FL; and D. S. Nolan

Recorded Presentation Manuscript (388.5 kB)

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