Impact Analysis of Climate Change in North-West India for Crop Planning and Management — A Case Study in Reference to the Rainfall

On the basis of analysis of long term rainfall data (1971-2012) of Uttar Pradesh, the decreasing trend in total quantum of annual rainfall was found. The frequency of occurrence of annual rainfall below normal was once in four year before 1990s in recurrence frequency of rainfall below normal increased and found once in one year after 1990s. The amount of annual rainfall decreased after industrialization from 1169.5 mm to 783.2 mm, i.e. decrease of 33 percent. The quantum of monthly rainfall after 1990s decreased as compared to before 1990s for all the months in Uttar Pradesh. The study of long term (1971-2012) decadal variability in annual rainfall showed that an alternate increasing and decreasing trend was observed for Uttar Pradesh in all the four decades viz. 1971-80, 1981-1990, 1991-2000 and 2001-2010. This will facilitate to project the future scenario of rainfall pattern. The amount of rainfall during 2011 and 2012 was more than normal hence found in agreement of the projected value from decadal characteristics trend. Rainfall partitioning of seasonal rainfall during south west monsoon contributed 87 percent (822 mm), post monsoon (42.8 mm) and winter season rainfall (35.7 mm) 4 percent each and only 5 percent (45.2 mm) in summer season was observed in Uttar Pradesh. Long term data analysis of Uttar Pradesh on decadal basis, revealed that the rainfall pattern was in decreasing trend in all the four decades and the rate of decrease of rainfall was in the order of monsoon season rainfall> summer season rainfall>winter season rainfall>post- monsoon rainfall.