Tuesday, 25 June 2002: 10:20 AM
A look at the "Saxby Gale" of October 1869
Late in the year 1868, a prediction was issued concerning the
likelihood of an "impending atmospheric disturbance." This prediction was
obviously made without the use of any computers. Stephen Martin Saxby, who
had a keen interest in meteorology sounded the initial warning, but it
received short shrift in most circles until less than a week before the
disturbance's predicted arrival. Then, another weather-minded individual,
based in Nova Scotia, stumbled across the original prediction and took it
upon himself to embellish it, causing great concern. When the anticipated
storm arrived -- amazingly right on schedule -- it left in its wake
considerable death and destruction. What made this a legendary storm in the
annals of New England and the Canadian Maritimes was that it apparently was
forecast nearly a year in advance! We will discuss the merits of the
original outlook that was issued by Saxby and whether we can apply his methodology to today's forecasts.
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