31st Conference on Broadcast Meteorology

Tuesday, 25 June 2002: 10:20 AM
A look at the "Saxby Gale" of October 1869
Joseph M. Rao, Cablevision/News 12 Westchester, Yonkers, NY
Late in the year 1868, a prediction was issued concerning the likelihood of an "impending atmospheric disturbance." This prediction was obviously made without the use of any computers. Stephen Martin Saxby, who had a keen interest in meteorology sounded the initial warning, but it received short shrift in most circles until less than a week before the disturbance's predicted arrival. Then, another weather-minded individual, based in Nova Scotia, stumbled across the original prediction and took it upon himself to embellish it, causing great concern. When the anticipated storm arrived -- amazingly right on schedule -- it left in its wake considerable death and destruction. What made this a legendary storm in the annals of New England and the Canadian Maritimes was that it apparently was forecast nearly a year in advance! We will discuss the merits of the original outlook that was issued by Saxby and whether we can apply his methodology to today's forecasts.

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