Wednesday, 6 August 2003: 4:15 PM
Initialization and forecasting of thunderstorms: Specification of radar measurement errors
Measurement errors need to be specified so that radar observations can be
properly assimilated for numerical weather prediction. There are two related
aspects to this problem: (1) errors in the original measurements within each
radar pulse volume, and (2) representativeness of the radar data estimates used
in the assimilation process. For radial velocities, the first error source
depends on the strength of the return signal and the spread or width of the
Doppler velocity spectrum. Spectral width in turn depends mainly on
reflectivity and velocity gradients within and across the pulse volume
and velocity turbulence within the pulse volume. Estimation of these errors
is complicated by the fact that the components needed for reliable error
estimation are themselves only measured and, therefore, have inherent
uncertainties.
We will review some of the basic error sources and their specification. We will also present a simplified approach to the specification of the spatial distribution of Doppler velocity error that includes not only random measurement error, but also includes a measure of representativeness when velocity data are gridded in preparation for the assimilation process.
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